Thursday, November 30, 2006
The S&P 500 Was The Only Major Index to Advance Today
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,221.93 (-4.80)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,431.77 (-0.46)
S&P 500: Closed @ 1,400.63 (+1.15)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $62.70/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $646.70/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7535 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.3272 U.S. Dollars
The Federal Funds Target Rate is 5.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.458%
Personal Income & Consumer Spending In October, 2006
Personal Consumption Expenditures
(a.k.a. Consumer Spending)
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%
Personal Income
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.4%
The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending and Personal Income for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 25, 2006
Predicted: 315,000
Actual: 357,000
The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
The 3 Major Indexes Advanced Today On An Upgraded Third-Quarter GDP Report
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,226.73 (+90.28)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,432.23 (+19.62)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,399.48 (+12.76)
----------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $62.42/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $635.00/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7591 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.3173 U.S. Dollars
The Federal Funds Target Rate is 5.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.521%
New Home Sales for October, 2006
Predicted: 1,040,000
New Home Sales for October 2006: 1,004,000
September, 2006 New Home Sales (Revised): 1,037,000
October, 2005 New Home Sales: 1,346,000
------------------------------------------------------
October New Home Sales: Average Price: $309,700
October New Home Sales: Median Price: $248,500
Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for a given month.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and microwave ovens.
Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Preliminary" Released Today for Q3, 2006
Predicted: +1.8%
Actual: +2.2%
The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure. The GDP report is produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The final GDP report for Q3, 2006, which will contain the most authoritative data for the third quarter, will be released on December 21, 2006.
The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."
Here's a snippet from a press release issued by the Commerce Department this morning:
"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2006, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 1.6 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, equipment and software, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in imports, a larger decrease in residential fixed investment, and decelerations in private inventory investment, in PCE for services, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by upturns in equipment and software, in PCE for durable goods, and in federal government spending.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.09 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.04 percentage point to the second-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output contributed 0.76 percentage point to the third-quarter growth in real GDP after subtracting 0.31 percentage point from the second-quarter growth."
Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 24, 2006
Weekly Change: -300,000 Barrels
Yearly Change: +23,200,000 Barrels
Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 340,800,000 Barrels
Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.
The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
The 3 Majors Advanced On Encouraging Housing News
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,136.45 (+14.74)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,412.61 (+6.69)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,386.72 (+4.82)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $61.10/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $635.40/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7588 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.318 U.S. Dollars
The Federal Funds Target Rate is 5.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.509%
Existing Home Sales for October, 2006
Predicted: 6,200,000
Actual: 6,240,000
Median Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In October, 2006: $221,000
Average Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In October, 2006: $264,000
The U.S. Existing Home Sales report is a sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for a given month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25TH day of each month.
Click here to view the full NAR report.
Durable Goods Orders Report for October, 2006 Released Today
Predicted: -5.0%
Actual: -8.3%
The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, microwave ovens, computers -- items that are built to last 3+ years.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.
Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November, 2006
Predicted: 106.4
Actual: 102.9
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feeling regarding the current U.S. economy, the future of the U.S. economy, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.
The baseline "100" score for the CCI is linked to 1985 survey data.
When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.
Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."
The CCI is always released on the last Tuesday of the month.
Last month, the CCI was 105.4.
Redbook Numbers for The Week of November 25, 2006
Redbook Sales Figures: +2.9%
The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores -- about 9,000 stores in total -- and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 2.9% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in November of 2005.
The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.
Monday, November 27, 2006
All 3 Major Indexes Declined Today
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,121.71 (-158.46)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,405.92 (-54.34)
S&P 500: Closed @ 1,381.90 (-19.05)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $60.32/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $638.30/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7614 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.3133 U.S. Dollars
The Federal Funds Target Rate is 5.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.538%
Friday, November 24, 2006
All 3 Majors Retreated On The Day, The NASDAQ The Only Gainer This Week
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 62.39 points (-0.508%), the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 14.40 points (+0.589%), and the S&P 500 Index lost 0.25 points (-0.018%).
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,280.17 (-46.78)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,460.26 (-5.72)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,400.95 (-5.14)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $59.24/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $629.40/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7637 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.3094 U.S. Dollars
The Federal Funds Target Rate is 5.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.548%
Thursday, November 23, 2006
The New York Exchanges Are Closed Today
The New York Stock Exchange®
The NASDAQ Stock Market®
The American Stock Exchange®
The New York Mercantile Exchange
are closed today in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
The New York Exchanges Will Be Closed Tomorrow
The New York Stock Exchange®
The NASDAQ Stock Market®
The American Stock Exchange®
The New York Mercantile Exchange
will be closed on Thursday, November 23, 2006, in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
All 3 Majors Gained Today
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,326.95 (+5.36)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,465.98 (+11.14)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,406.09 (+3.28)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $59.31/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $629.40/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7734 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.293 U.S. Dollars
The Federal Funds Target Rate is 5.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.568%
Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 17, 2006
Weekly Change: +5,100,000 Barrels
Yearly Change: +19,300,000 Barrels
Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 341,100,000 Barrels
Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.
The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.
Consumer Sentiment for November, 2006
Predicted: 93.5
Actual: 92.1
The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"
The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.
The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Last month, the Consumer Sentiment Index was 93.6.
New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 18, 2006
Predicted: 310,000
Actual: 321,000
The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
All 3 Majors Gained Some Ground Today As Crude Prices Rose
Shares of NYSE Group (NYX) added $9.28 (+9.74%) to close @ $104.60. NYSE Group owns the New York Stock Exchange®.
Google shares passed the $500 mark for the first time ever today. Shares of Google Inc. (GOOG) added $14.60 (+2.95%) to close @ $509.65.
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,321.59 (+5.05)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,454.84 (+2.12)
S&P 500: Closed @ 1,402.81 (+2.31)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $59.85/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $628.50/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7774 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2863 U.S. Dollars
The Federal Funds Target Rate is 5.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.578%
Redbook Numbers for The Week of November 18, 2006
Redbook Sales Figures: +3.0%
The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores -- about 9,000 stores in total -- and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 3.0% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in November of 2005.
The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.
Monday, November 20, 2006
The NASDAQ Composite Index Was The Only Major to Gain Ground Today
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,316.54 (-26.02)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,452.72 (+6.86)
S&P 500: Closed @ 1,400.50 (-0.70)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $59.12/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $621.80/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7797 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2826 U.S. Dollars
The Federal Funds Target Rate is 5.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.595%
Leading Economic Indicators for October, 2006
Actual: +0.2%
The above numbers represent the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns, respectively:
- The Money Supply (M2)
- The Standard and Poor's 500 Index
- The interest rate spread between the yield on 10-year Treasury Notes and the Fed Funds Target Rate
- Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
- Manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods
- Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
- Average weekly manufacturing hours
- The Index of Consumer Expectations
- Vendor performance
- Building permits for new private housing
Friday, November 17, 2006
All 3 Major Indexes Advanced On The Week
For the week, the DJIA gained 234.13 points (+1.93%), the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 56.14 points (+2.35%), and the S&P 500 Index added 20.30 points (+1.47%).
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,342.56 (+36.74)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,445.86 (-3.20)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,401.20 (+1.44)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $58.97/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $621.80/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7795 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2828 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (Fed Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.607%
Housing Starts in October, 2006
Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,675,000
Actual: 1,486,000
Building Permits:
Actual: 1,535,000
The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in The United States for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. The monthly Housing Starts report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise--and vice versa.
Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
Thursday, November 16, 2006
All 3 Major Indexes Advanced Today On Cheaper Crude Oil Prices
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,305.82 (+54.11)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,449.06 (+6.31)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,399.76 (+3.19)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $56.03/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $618.50/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.782 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2788 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (Fed Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.655%
Industrial Production for October, 2006
Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%
Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 82.0%
Actual: 82.2%
The above Industrial Production numbers represent the month-to-month change in physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.
The Capacity Utilization Rate percentages represent the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.
The "predicted" figures are what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, 2006
Predicted: -0.3%
Actual: -0.5%
Below is the CPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation:
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.
General categories are:
- Healthcare
- Housing
- Clothing
- Communications
- Education
- Transportation
- Food & Beverages
- Recreation
- Miscellaneous Goods & Services (grooming expenses, etc.)
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 11, 2006
Predicted: 310,000
Actual: 308,000
The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
The 3 Majors Gained Ground Today; Dow Sets A Brand New Closing Record
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,251.71 (+33.70)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,442.75 (+12.09)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,396.57 (+3.35)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $58.76/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $622.10/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7796 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2828 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (Fed Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.615%
Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 10, 2006
Weekly Change: +1,300,000 Barrels
Yearly Change: +14,600,000 Barrels
Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 336,000,000 Barrels
Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.
The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
All 3 Majors Advanced Today; Dow Sets New Closing Record
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,218.01 (+86.13)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,430.66 (+24.28)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,393.22 (+8.80)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $58.42/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $621.60/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7803 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2816 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (Fed Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.568%
U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for October, 2006
Predicted: -0.4%
Actual: -0.2%
Minus Auto Sales
Predicted: -0.3%
Actual : -0.4%
The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell both durable and non-durable goods.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.
Here's a snippet from today's Commerce Department report:
"The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month, but up 4.5 percent (±0.7%) from October 2005. Total sales for the August through October 2006 period were up 5.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2006 percent change was revised from -0.4 percent (± 0.7%)* to -0.8 percent (± 0.2%).Click here to view the full report.
Retail trade sales were down 0.3 percent (±0.7%)* from September, but were 4.2 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Motor vehicles and parts dealers were up 10.1 percent (±2.3%) from October 2005 and sales of nonstore retailers were up 8.6 percent (±4.5%) from last year."
Producer Price Index (PPI) for October, 2006
Predicted: -0.6%
Actual: -1.6%
Below is the PPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation:
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -0.9%
The above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and capital equipment that producers buy in order to produce finished goods for consumers. The PPI is an important part of the overall inflation picture for the country because when costs go up for producers, producers will often pass those increased costs on to consumers.
The PPI is released by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The PPI is a family or amalgamation of indexes, including The:
- All Commodities Index
- Crude Energy Materials Index
- Crude Foodstuffs & Feedstuffs Index
- Crude Materials for Further Processing Index
- Finished Goods Index
- Finished Consumer Foods Index
- Finished Consumer Goods Index
- Finished Consumer Goods Excluding Foods Index
- Finished Energy Goods Index
- Finished Goods: Capital Equipment Index
- Finished Goods Excluding Foods Index
- Finished Goods Less Energy Index
- Finished Goods Less Food & Energy Index
- Fuels & Related Products & Power Index
- Industrial Commodities Index
- Intermediate Energy Goods Index
- Intermediate Foods & Feeds Index
- Intermediate Materials: Supplies & Components Index
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
Redbook Numbers for The Week of November 11, 2006
Redbook Sales Figures: +3.3%
The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores -- about 9,000 stores in total -- and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 3.3% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in November of 2005.
The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.
Monday, November 13, 2006
All 3 Majors Gained Today On Cheaper Crude Oil
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,131.88 (+23.45)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,406.38 (+16.66)
S&P 500: Closed @ 1,384.42 (+3.52)
----------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $58.59/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $624.70/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7798 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2824 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (WSJ Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.605%
Treasury Budget for October, 2006
Predicted: -49,000,000,000
Actual: -$49,300,000,000
The "actual" figure above represents the monthly balance on the U.S. federal government's "books" and is compiled by The Treasury Department. A positive number represents a surplus, while a negative represents a deficit.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting.
Friday, November 10, 2006
The 3 Majors Advanced On The Day and On The Week
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) added 122.39 points (+1.02%), the NASDAQ Composite Index added 58.93 points (+2.53%), and the S&P 500 Index gained 16.60 points (+1.22%).
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,108.43 (+5.13)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,389.72 (+13.71)
S&P 500: Closed @ 1,380.90 (+2.57)
----------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $59.59/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $628.20/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7788 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2841 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (WSJ Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.586%
Thursday, November 09, 2006
All 3 Majors Retreated Today
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,103.30 (-73.24)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,376.01 (-8.93)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,378.33 (-7.39)
----------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $61.07/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $633.30/ounce
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7788 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.284 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (Fed Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.633%
Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) for November, 2006
Predicted: 93.4
Actual: 92.3
The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"
The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966 (and vice versa.)
The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
International Trade Balance Level for September, 2006
Predicted: $ -66,000,000,000
Actual: $ -64,300,000,000
The "actual" figure above represents the balance of trade--imports vs. exports--between the United States and all other countries, and includes both goods and services. A negative number represents a trade deficit, while a positive number represents a trade surplus.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 4, 2006
Predicted: 315,000
Actual: 308,000
The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
U.S. Import and Export Price Indices for October, 2006
Import Prices
Predicted: -0.8
Actual: -2.0%
Export Prices
Actual: -0.4%
The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices for
- Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the U.S.
- Exports: the cost of goods produced in the U.S. and sold in other countries.
Together, these indices offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The following is a clip from today's Labor Department report:
"Import Goods
The 2.0 percent decreases in September and October followed increases in each of the prior five months and led import prices down 0.2 percent for the year ended in October. Once again lower petroleum prices, which felt 8.3 percent for the month, were the largest contributing factor to the drop. Despite increasing 23.8 percent from February to August, petroleum prices declined 2.9 percent over the past 12 months. The price index for nonpetroleum imports decreased 0.6 percent in October, the first monthly decline since March, but rose 0.5 percent over the past year.
The October decrease in nonpetroleum prices was led by a 2.7 percent decline in the price index for nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials. A sharp drop in natural gas prices was the primary contributor to the decline, although a downturn in metals prices as well as lower building materials prices also factored into the decrease. Unfinished metal prices, which were up 36.8 percent over the past year, fell 1.0 percent in October.
The price indexes for automotive vehicles, consumer goods, and foods, feeds, and beverages all rose in October, increasing 0.3 percent, 0.1 percent, and 0.2 percent, respectively. The increase in automotive vehicles prices was the largest monthly gain since a similar 0.3 percent increase in October 2004, and was attributable to year-end model changeovers.
Capital goods prices edged down 0.1 percent in October because of lower prices for computers, peripherals, and semiconductors. Excluding computer prices, prices for capital goods rose 0.2 percent for the month.
Export Goods
Export prices declined 0.4 percent in October following a similar 0.4 percent drop in September, marking the first time the index has decreased in consecutive months in over three years. A 0.5 percent decrease in nonagricultural prices more than offset a 1.1 percent increase in the price index for agricultural exports. Agricultural prices resumed an upward trend after declining 0.5 percent in September. The October increase was led by higher prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Prices for agricultural exports increased 5.4 percent over the past 12 months. The decrease in nonagricultural prices followed a 0.3 percent decline in September, which was the first monthly drop for the index since November 2005. Despite the October decreases, the price indexes for both nonagricultural exports and overall exports increased for the October 2005-2006 period, rising 2.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.
A 1.8 percent decrease in prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials drove the October decline in nonagricultural prices. The drop in nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices, which followed a 1.2 percent decrease in September, was the largest monthly decline for the index in 11 months. A drop in fuel prices was the biggest reason for the decline, but lower metals and chemical prices were also contributing factors.
In contrast, prices for each of the major finished goods areas either rose or were unchanged in October. Capital goods prices and prices for automotive vehicles increased 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, while the price index for consumer goods recorded no change for the month. "
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
All 3 Majors Advanced with A Brand New Record-High Close for The Dow
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,176.54 (+19.77)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,384.94 (+9.06)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,385.72 (+2.88)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $60.11/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $615.00/ounce (-$1.90)
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7821 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2786 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (Fed Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.633%
Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 3, 2006
Weekly Change: +400,000 Barrels
Yearly Change: +11,100,000 Barrels
Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 334,700,000 Barrels
Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.
The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
All 3 Majors Advanced Today on Cheaper Crude
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,156.77 (+51.22)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,375.88 (+9.93)
S&P 500: Closed @ 1,382.84 (+3.06)
----------------------------------------------------------
NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $59.27/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $624.40/ounce (-$1.30)
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7827 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2777 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (WSJ Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.659%
Consumer Credit Status Report for September, 2006 Released Today
Predicted: +$6,000,000,000
Actual: -$1,200,000,000
The above figures represent the month-to-month change in total outstanding, installment-based consumer credit; includes car loans and credit cards.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the real or true figure.
Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.
Redbook Numbers for The Week of November 4, 2006
Redbook Sales Figures: +3.4%
The Redbook measures the weekly sales at chain stores, discount stores, and department stores -- about 9,000 stores in total -- and is therefore an important measure of current consumer spending in the U.S. The above figure represents the year-to-year change in the Redbook sales figures, so sales are up by 3.4% when compared to sales during the corresponding week back in November of 2005.
The weekly Johnson Redbook Index report is produced by Redbook Research.
Monday, November 06, 2006
All 3 Majors Closed with Strong Gains Today
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
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DJIA: Closed @ 12,105.55 (+119.51)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,365.95 (+35.16)
S&P 500: Closed @ 1,379.78 (+15.48)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $60.02/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $623.40/ounce (-$1.90)
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7854 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2732 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (WSJ Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.709%
Friday, November 03, 2006
All 3 Majors Declined On The Day and On The Week
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 104.22 points (-0.87%), the NASDAQ Composite Index lost 19.83 points (-0.851%), and the S&P 500 Index lost 13.04 points (-0.956%).
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 11,986.04 (-32.50)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,330.79 (-3.23)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,364.30 (-3.04)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future is currently @ $59.05/barrel
NY Spot Gold closed @ $627.20/ounce (+$2.30)
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7865 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2715 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (Fed Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.715%
Employment Situation Report for October, 2006
Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%
Non-farm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +130K
Actual: +92K
Average Workweek
Predicted: 33.8 hrs
Actual: 33.9 hrs
Unemployment Rate
Predicted: 4.6%
Actual: 4.4%
Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money, b) unemployment is low and c) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
The 3 Majors Declined on Productivity and Labor Costs Report
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,018.54 (-12.48)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,334.02 (-0.33)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,367.34 (-0.47)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $57.87/barrel
NY Spot Gold is currently @ $623.40/ounce (-$1.50)
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7826 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2778 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (Fed Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.596%
U.S. Factory Orders Report for September, 2006
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +2.1%
The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.
Productivity and Labor Cost Report for Q3, 2006 Released Today (Preliminary)
Non-farm Productivity
Predicted: +1.0%
Actual: 0.0%
Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +3.4%
Actual: +3.8%
The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs.
For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.
The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)
New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 28, 2006
Predicted: 310,000
Actual: 327,000
The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
Challenger Report on Corporate Layoffs for October, 2006
U.S. Job Cuts Announced during October, 2006: 69,177
When the corporate layoff numbers are high, consumer spending may decline, since there are less people with steady jobs.
When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
All 3 Majors Declined Today
Summary of The U.S. Markets:
----------------------------------------------------------
DJIA: Closed @ 12,031.02 (-49.71)
NASDAQ: Closed @ 2,334.35 (-32.36)
S and P 500: Closed @ 1,367.81 (-10.13)
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NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $58.70/barrel
NY Spot Gold is currently @ $618.10/ounce (+$1.80)
In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7841 Euros
In New York, The Euro buys 1.2754 U.S. Dollars
The U.S. Prime Rate (Fed Prime Rate) is 8.25%
10-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 4.561%
U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Report for October, 2006
Predicted: 12,500,000
Actual: 12,300,000
The above figures represent unit sales of American-made cars, minivans, SUV's and light trucks. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of October 27, 2006
Weekly Change: +2,000,000 Barrels
Yearly Change: +15,200,000 Barrels
Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 334,300,000 Barrels
Diminishing crude oil inventories can translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.
The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Click here for a more detailed summary of The Week in Petroleum.
Construction Spending during September, 2006
Predicted: -0.3%
Actual: -0.3%
The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
Overall construction spending is up by 2.9% when compared to the revised numbers from September, 2005.
Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.