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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Personal Income & Consumer Spending Report for March 2009

Earlier today, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis released their report on Consumer Spending and Personal Income during March 2009:

Personal Consumption Expenditures
(a.k.a. Consumer Spending)
Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: -0.2%

Personal Income
Predicted: -0.2%
Actual: -0.3%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending and Personal Income for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Advance" Released Today for Q1, 2009

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the first quarter of 2009 were released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Predicted: -5.0%
Actual: -6.1%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity in the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy.

The "advance" estimates are based on data that are incomplete or subject to future revision. Next month, the Commerce Department will release a "preliminary" report for the above-referenced quarter, which will contain more accurate data. A "final" GDP report will be released later this year, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data on the above-referenced quarter.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April 2009

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for this month (April 2009) was released by The Conference Board this morning:

Predicted: 30.0
Actual: 39.2

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feeling regarding the current U.S. economy, the future of the U.S. economy, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is linked to 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is almost always released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 26.9 (revised)

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Friday, April 24, 2009

The DJIA and S&P 500 Declined On The Week

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the S&P 500 both declined on the week, while the NASDAQ Composite advanced.

For the week, the DJIA lost 55.04 points (-0.677%), the NASDAQ Composite Index rose by 21.22 points (+1.268%), and the S and P 500 Index shed 3.37 points (-0.388%).

Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

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DJIA: Closed @ 8,076.29 (+119.23)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 1,694.29 (+42.08)

S and P 500: Closed @ 866.23 (+14.31)

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NYMEX Crude Oil Future closed @ $51.55/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $913.00/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7551 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.3242 U.S. Dollars

The Target Range for the Fed Funds Rate is 0% - 0.25%

Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 2.996%

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New Home Sales for March 2009

The March 2009 New Home Sales report was released this morning:

Predicted: 330,000

Actual New Home Sales: 356,000

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Change from One Month Previous: -0.6%

Change from One Year Previous: -30.6%

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Median Price for a New Home during March: $201,400

Average Price for a New Home during March: $258,000

Click here for historical prices and a chart.

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for a given month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners and microwave ovens.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Thursday, April 23, 2009

Existing Home Sales for March 2009

The Existing Home Sales report for March 2009 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 4,700,000
Actual: 4,570,000
Change from One Month Previous: -3.0%
Change from One Year Previous: -7.1%

The "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annual sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Median Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In March 2009: $175,200
Change from One Year Previous: -12.4%

Average Price for A Preowned, Single-Family
Home In March 2009: $217,300
Change from One Year Previous: -12.1%

Click here for historical prices and a chart.

The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25TH day of each month.

Click here to view the full NAR report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 18, 2009

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on April 18, 2009:

Predicted: 636,000
Actual: 640,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Monday, April 20, 2009

Leading Economic Indicators for March 2009

The Conference Board report on the nation's Leading Economic Indicators for March 2009 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.3%
Actual: -0.3%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns, respectively:

  1. The Money Supply (M2)
  2. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index
  3. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note and Fed Funds

  4. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
  5. Manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods
  6. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
  7. Average weekly manufacturing hours
  8. The Index of Consumer Expectations
  9. Vendor performance
  10. Building permits for new private housing

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Friday, April 17, 2009

All 3 Majors Rose On The Week

Each of the 3 major indices edged higher on the week.

For the week, the DJIA gained 47.95 points (+0.593%), the NASDAQ Composite Index rose by 20.53 points (+1.242%), and the S and P 500 Index added 13.04 points (+1.522%).

Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

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DJIA: Closed @ 8,131.33 (+5.90)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 1,673.07 (+2.63)

S and P 500: Closed @ 869.60 (+4.30)

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NYMEX Crude Oil for Future Delivery closed @ $50.33/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $868.70/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7666 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.3044 U.S. Dollars

The Target Range for the Fed Funds Rate is 0% - 0.25%

Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 2.93%

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Thursday, April 16, 2009

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for April 2009

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its diffuse index of current manufacturing conditions for this month (April):

Predicted: -30.2
Actual: -24.4

The "actual" figure above is an index of current manufacturing conditions within the Federal Reserve's Third District, which includes eastern Pennsylvania, all of Delaware and the southern half of New Jersey. Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Philadelphia Fed report.

Last month, the actual figure was -35.0.

For a national perspective of manufacturing conditions, check out the Institute of Supply Management's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 11, 2009

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on April 11, 2009:

Predicted: 654,000
Actual: 610,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2009

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2009:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -0.1%

Below is the CPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation, also known as the "core CPI":

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

The above numbers represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:
  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food & Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods & Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

Click here to view the full Labor Department report
.

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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Producer Price Index (PPI) for March 2009

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for March 2009 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -1.2%

Below is the PPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation, also known as the "core PPI":

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: 0.0%


The above numbers represent the month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and capital equipment that producers buy in order to produce finished goods for consumers. The PPI is an important part of the overall inflation picture for the country because when costs go up for producers, producers will often pass those increased costs on to consumers.

The PPI is released by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The PPI is a family or amalgamation of indexes, including The:

  • All Commodities Index
  • Crude Energy Materials Index
  • Crude Foodstuffs & Feedstuffs Index
  • Crude Materials for Further Processing Index
  • Finished Goods Index
  • Finished Consumer Foods Index
  • Finished Consumer Goods Index
  • Finished Consumer Goods Excluding Foods Index
  • Finished Energy Goods Index
  • Finished Goods: Capital Equipment Index
  • Finished Goods Excluding Foods Index
  • Finished Goods Less Energy Index
  • Finished Goods Less Food & Energy Index
  • Fuels & Related Products & Power Index
  • Industrial Commodities Index
  • Intermediate Energy Goods Index
  • Intermediate Foods & Feeds Index
  • Intermediate Materials: Supplies & Components Index

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for March 2009

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for March 2009:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: -1.1%

Minus Auto and Auto Parts Sales
Predicted: 0.0%
Actual : -0.9%


The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable & non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food & beverage services.

  • Change from 12 months previous: -9.4%
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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Friday, April 10, 2009

All 3 Majors Edged Higher On The Four-Day Trading Week

Each of the 3 major indices advanced on the holiday-shortened, 4-day trading week.

For the week, the DJIA added 65.79 points (+0.821%), the NASDAQ Composite Index added 30.67 points (+1.891%), and the S and P 500 Index gained 14.06 points (+1.669%).

Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

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DJIA: Closed @ 8,083.38 (+246.27)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 1,652.54 (+61.88)

S and P 500: Closed @ 856.56 (+31.40)

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NYMEX Crude Oil for Future Delivery closed @ $52.24/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $879.20/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7583 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.3188 U.S. Dollars

The Target Range for the Fed Funds Rate is 0% - 0.25%

Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 2.926%

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Thursday, April 09, 2009

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 4, 2009

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on April 4, 2009:

Predicted: 664,000
Actual: 654,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Friday, April 03, 2009

All 3 Majors Gained More Than Three Percent On The Week

Each of the 3 major indices moved higher by more than 3 percent on the week despite news that non-farm payrolls shrank by 663,000 last month, and the unemployment rate climbed to 8.5%.

For the week, the DJIA added 241.41 points (+3.104%), the NASDAQ Composite Index added 76.67 points (+4.962%), and the S and P 500 Index gained 26.56 points (+3.255%).

Summary of The U.S. Markets for Today:

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DJIA: Closed @ 8,017.59 (+39.51)

NASDAQ: Closed @ 1,621.87 (+19.24)

S and P 500: Closed @ 842.50 (+8.12)

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NYMEX Crude Oil for Future Delivery closed @ $52.51/barrel

NY Spot Gold closed @ $893.80/ounce

In New York, The U.S. Dollar buys 0.7416 Euros

In New York, The Euro buys 1.3484 U.S. Dollars

The Target Range for the Fed Funds Rate is 0% - 0.25%

Ten-Year Treasury Note Yield is currently @ 2.907%

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Employment Situation Report for March 2009

The Employment Situation report for March 2009 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%


Non-farm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: -650K
Actual: -663K


Average Workweek
Predicted: 33.3 hrs
Actual: 33.2 hrs


Unemployment Rate
Predicted: 8.5%
Actual: 8.5%

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money, b) unemployment is low and c) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Thursday, April 02, 2009

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 28, 2009

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on March 28, 2009:

Predicted: 655,000
Actual: 669,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Wednesday, April 01, 2009

ISM Manufacturing Index for March 2009

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for March 2009:

Predicted: 36.0%
Actual: 36.3%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country that are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month in question; when it's below 50%, it implies that the manufacturing sector contracted.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

During the prior month, the PMI was 35.8%.

Click here to view the complete ISM report.

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