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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September 2015

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for this month (September 2015) was released by The Conference Board this morning:

Predicted: 96.0
Actual: 103.0

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is linked to 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is almost always released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 101.3 (revised.)

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Monday, September 28, 2015

Personal Income & Consumer Spending Report for August 2015

Earlier today, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis released their report on Consumer Spending and Personal Income during August 2015:

Consumer Spending
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.3%

The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending and Personal Income for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Friday, September 25, 2015

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Final" Released Today for Q2, 2015

The final, real U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the second quarter of 2015 was released this morning:

Predicted: +3.7%
Actual: +3.9%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The GDP report is produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Today's final GDP report contains the most authoritative data for Q2, 2015.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Thursday, September 24, 2015

Durable Goods Orders Report for August 2015

The Durable Goods Orders report for August 2015 was released this morning:

Predicted: -2.0%
Actual: -2.0%

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Total Orders for August: $236,000,000,000

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Change from 12 months ago: -2.3%

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The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 19, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on September 19, 2015:

Predicted: 275,000
Actual: 267,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week: 264,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Thursday, September 17, 2015

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for September 2015

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released its diffuse index of current manufacturing conditions for this month (September 2015):

Predicted: +6.3
Actual: -6.0

The "actual" figure above is an index of current manufacturing conditions within the Federal Reserve's Third District, which includes eastern Pennsylvania, all of Delaware and the southern half of New Jersey. Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Philadelphia Fed report.

Last month, the actual figure was +8.3

For a national perspective of manufacturing conditions, check out the Institute of Supply Management's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).

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Housing Starts During August 2015

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released the Housing Starts report for August 2015:

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,168,000
Actual: 1,126,000

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Change From Previous Month: -3.0%
Change From One Year Previous: +16.6%

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,160,000
Actual: 1,170,000

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Change From Previous Month: +3.5%
Change From One Year Previous: +12.5%
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The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise--and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 12, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on September 12, 2015:

Predicted: 275,000
Actual: 264,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (Revised): 275,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2015

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2015:

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Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: -0.1%

Change from 12 months ago: +0.2%

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are subtracted from the equation, also known as the "core CPI":

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months ago: +1.8%

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The above numbers represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Tuesday, September 15, 2015

U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for August 2015

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for August 2015:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%


The above percentages represent the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable & non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food & beverage services.

Estimated Retail Sales for August: $447,700,000,000

  • Change from 1 Year Ago: +2.2%
The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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Thursday, September 10, 2015

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 5, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on September 5, 2015:

Predicted: 275,000
Actual: 275,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (Revised): 281,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Friday, September 04, 2015

Employment Situation Report for August 2015

The Employment Situation report for August 2015 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Unemployment Rate
Predicted: 5.2%
Actual: 5.1%

Non-farm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +223,000
Actual: +173,000


Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.6 hrs
Actual: 34.6 hrs

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

"...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from +231,000 to +245,000, and the change for July was revised from +215,000 to +245,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 44,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 221,000 per month..."

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Thursday, September 03, 2015

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 29, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on August 29, 2015:

Predicted: 273,000
Actual: 282,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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