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Economy

Economic Indicators (USA)

Friday, October 30, 2015

Personal Income & Consumer Spending Report for September 2015

Earlier today, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis released their report on Consumer Spending and Personal Income during September 2015:

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures) and Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: -0.1%


  • Change from 12 months ago: +0.2%
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Core PCE Price Index ( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

  • Change from 12 months ago: +1.3%
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The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the  Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee FOMC pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Thursday, October 29, 2015

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Advance" Released Today for Q3, 2015

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "advance" numbers for the third quarter of 2015 were released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

Predicted: +1.7%
Actual: +1.5%

The highlighted figure represents the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity in the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy.

The "advance" estimates are based on data that are incomplete or subject to future revision.

  • On November 24, 2015, the Commerce Department will release a "preliminary" GDP report for Q3 2015, which will contain more accurate data.
  • On December 22, 2015, a "final" GDP report will be released by the BEA, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data for Q3 2015.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 24, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on October 24, 2015:

Predicted: 265,000
Actual: 260,000

The highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 259,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2015

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October 2015) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

Predicted: 102.5
Actual: 97.6

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is almost always released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 102.6 (revised.)

Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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Durable Goods Orders Report for September 2015

The Durable Goods Orders report for September 2015 was released this morning:

Predicted: -1.0%
Actual: -1.2%

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Total Orders for September: $231,100,000,000

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Change from 12 months ago: -3.0%

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The  highlighted figure represents the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Thursday, October 22, 2015

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 17, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on October 17, 2015:

Predicted: 265,000
Actual: 259,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 256,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Friday, October 16, 2015

Industrial Production for September 2015

The Industrial Production numbers for September 2015 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: -0.3%
Actual: -0.2%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: -0.2%
Actual: -0.1%

The above numbers (highlighted) represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 77.4%
Actual: 77.5

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.

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Thursday, October 15, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2015

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2015:

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Predicted: -0.2%
Actual: -0.2%

(Change from 12 months ago: 0.0%)

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as "core CPI":

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months ago: +1.9%)

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The above figures (highlighted) represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 10, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on October 10, 2015:

Predicted: 270,000
Actual: 255,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 262,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for September 2015

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for September 2015 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.2%
Actual: -0.5%

(Change from 12 months ago: -1.1%)

Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.3%

(Change from 12 months ago: +0.8%)

The above numbers (highlighted) represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Thursday, October 08, 2015

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 3, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on October 3, 2015:

Predicted: 271,000
Actual: 263,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 276,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Friday, October 02, 2015

Employment Situation Report for September 2015

The Employment Situation report for September 2015 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +203,000
Actual: +142,000


Unemployment Rate
Predicted: 5.1%
Actual: 5.1%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: 0.0%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.6 hrs
Actual: 34.5 hrs

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

"...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000 to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 167,000 per month..."

"...The civilian labor force participation rate declined to 62.4 percent in September; the rate had been 62.6 percent for the prior 3 months..."
"...Thus far in 2015, job growth has averaged 198,000 per month..."


Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Thursday, October 01, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Index for September 2015

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for September 2015:

Predicted: 50.5%
Actual: 50.2%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the factory sector contracted.

Last month, the PMI was 51.1%.

The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:

"...'Revenues and profits in our industry continue to [be] impacted by low crude and gas prices.'
(Petroleum and Coal Products)

    'Concern for AI [Avian Influenza] for poultry when bird migration begins.'
(Food, Beverage and Tobacco Products)

    'Continue to feel impact of oil and gas market slowdown. Aerospace demand has also been slower than expected. Consumer Electronics not robust.'
(Primary Metals)

    'Concerns about China downturn and its effect on our consumer confidence.'
(Fabricated Metal Products)

    'Overall business is slowing. Consumers are nervous. Not sure what is coming next.'
(Transportation Equipment)

    'High value of dollar is affecting global procurement pricing.'
(Computer and Electronic Products)

    'North American business steady. International business trending bearish.'
(Chemical Products)

    'Business is picking up.'
(Furniture and Related Products)

    'The orders from customers seem to be slowing a bit from the first part of the year. We have promises but not actual Purchase Order numbers'
(Nonmetallic Mineral Products)..."


Click here to view the complete ISM report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 26, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on September 26, 2015:

Predicted: 272,000
Actual: 277,000

The above figures represent the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 267,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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