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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 21, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on November 21, 2015:

Predicted: 270,000
Actual: 260,000

The highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 272,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Personal Income & Consumer Spending Report for October 2015

Earlier today, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis released their report on Consumer Spending and Personal Income during October 2015:

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.1%

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4%

The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures) and Personal Income for the entire United States.
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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%


  • Change from 12 months ago: +0.2%
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Core PCE Price Index ( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: 0.0%

  • Change from 12 months ago: +1.3%
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The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the  Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee FOMC pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November 2015

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (November 2015) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

Predicted: 99.6
Actual: 90.4

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is almost always released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 99.1 (revised.)

Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Preliminary" Released Today for Q3 2015

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "preliminary" numbers for the third quarter of 2015 were released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

Predicted: +2.1%
Actual: +2.1%

The above percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure. The GDP report is produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The final GDP report for Q3 2015, which will contain the most authoritative data for the fourth quarter, will be released on December 22, 2015.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Thursday, November 19, 2015

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 14, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on November 14, 2015:

Predicted: 270,000
Actual: 271,000

The highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 276,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2015

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2015:

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Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months ago: +0.2%)

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as "core CPI":

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months ago: +1.9%)

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The above figures (highlighted) represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Industrial Production for October 2015

The Industrial Production numbers for October 2015 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.2%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

The above numbers (highlighted) represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 77.5%
Actual: 77.5

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report.

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Friday, November 13, 2015

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2015

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2015 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -0.4%

(Change from 12 months ago: -1.6%)

Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.3%

(Change from 12 months ago: +0.1%)

The above numbers (highlighted) represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Friday, November 06, 2015

Employment Situation Report for October 2015

The Employment Situation Report for October 2015 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +190,000
Actual: +271,000


Unemployment Rate
Predicted: 5.0%
Actual: 5.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hrs
Actual: 34.5 hrs

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +136,000 to +153,000, and the change for September was revised from +142,000 to +137,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 187,000 per month..."

"...Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in October. Over the prior 12 months, employment growth had averaged 230,000 per month. In October, job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction..."

"...The civilian labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.4 percent in October, following a decline of 0.2 percentage point in September. The employment-population ratio, at 59.3 percent, changed little in October and has shown little movement over the past year..."

"...Employment in mining continued to trend down in October (-5,000). The industry has shed 109,000 jobs since reaching a recent employment peak in December 2014..."

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.



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Thursday, November 05, 2015

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 31, 2015

Earlier today, the Labor Department released the New Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week that ended on October 31, 2015:

Predicted: 262,000
Actual: 276,000

The highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Last Week (revised): 260,000

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Tuesday, November 03, 2015

U.S. Factory Orders Report for September 2015

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for September 2015:

Predicted: -0.9%
Actual: -1.0%

The highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Monday, November 02, 2015

ISM Manufacturing Index for October 2015

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for October 2015:

Predicted: 50.0%
Actual: 50.1%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the factory sector contracted.

Last month, the PMI was 50.2%.

The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:

"...'Sales demand becoming more consistent. Beginning to see slightly more capital spending by key customers. Outlook more positive than negative.'
(Electrical Equipment, Appliances and Components)

    'So far bird flu has not been reintroduced as bird migration begins.'
(Food, Beverage and Tobacco Products)

    'Business is improving. We still need young machinists to replace those retiring.'
(Fabricated Metal Products)

    'Business is picking-up in general.'
(Transportation Equipment)

    'Energy market continues to struggle. Effects are beginning to bleed into other areas.'
(Computer and Electronic Products)

    'Currency exchange is having a large impact on business results.'
(Chemical Products)

    'Wood products market is sluggish with prices varying up/down depending on size and grade.'
(Wood Products)

    'Some level of slowing, but activity is acceptable.'
(Machinery)..."

Click here to view the complete ISM report.

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