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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, July 29, 2016

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "Advance" Released Today for Q2, 2016

The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "advance" report for the second quarter of 2016 was released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

Predicted: +2.6%
Actual: +1.2%

The highlighted figure represents the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States.

The GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity in the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy.

The "advance" estimate is based on data that are incomplete or subject to future revision.


  • On August 26, 2016, the Commerce Department will release a "preliminary" GDP report for Q2 2016, which will contain more accurate data.

  • On September 29, 2016, a "final" GDP report will be released by the BEA, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data for Q2 2016.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.


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Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 22, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 22, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +1,700,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +61,500,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 521,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translates to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

Click here for weekly crude oil prices.


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Tuesday, July 26, 2016

New Home Sales for June 2016

The June 2016 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: 562,000
Actual New Home Sales: 592,000

Change from One Month Ago: +3.5%
Change from One Year Ago: +25.4%

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Median Price for a New Home during June: $306,700

Average Price for a New Home during June: $358,200

Click here for historical prices and a chart.

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New Home Sales for June 2016
New Home Sales for June 2016
 ------------------------------------------------------

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers during the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).


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Thursday, July 21, 2016

Existing Home Sales for June 2016

The Existing Home Sales report for June 2016 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 5,475,000
Actual: 5,570,000

Change from Previous Month: +1.1%
Change from One Year Previous: +3.0%

Inventory: 2,120,000 (4.6 months supply)

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The "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annual sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During June 2016: $247,700
Change from One Year Previous: +4.8%

Average Price for A Used Home During June 2016: $292,100
Change from One Year Previous: +4.2%

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Click here for historical prices and a chart.


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Existing Home Sales - June 2016
Existing Home Sales - June 2016




==========

  • The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25TH day of each month.

Click here to view the full NAR report.


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Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 15, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 15, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -2,300,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +55,600,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 519,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translates to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

Click here for weekly crude oil prices.

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Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Latest GDPNow Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast for Q2:2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its latest GDPNow forecast for the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2016.

==============

Latest Forecast for Q2, 2016: +2.4%

==============

Previous Reading (July 15, 2016): +2.4%


==============

GDPNow: July 19, 2016
GDPNow: July 19, 2016
==============


From Today's Report:

"...The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.4% on July 19, unchanged from July 15. The forecast for second-quarter real residential investment growth ticked up from -3.2 percent to -3.1 percent after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau...."

About The GDPNow Forecast Model:

"...The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an 'advance' (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymaker have the Fed Board staff projection of this 'advance' estimate at their disposal...

...The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to 'nowcast' GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add 'color' to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids..."

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Housing Starts During June 2016

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released the Housing Starts report for June 2016:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,170,000
Actual: 1,189,000

Change From Previous Month: +4.8%
Change From One Year Previous: -2.0%

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,150,000
Actual: 1,153,000

Change From Previous Month: +1.5%
Change From One Year Previous: -13.6%

----------------------------------------------------


The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise --  and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).


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Friday, July 15, 2016

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization for June 2016

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for June 2016 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.6%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4%

The above numbers (highlighted) represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 75.0%
Actual: 75.4

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report



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Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July 2016

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York  (NY Fed) released the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for this month (July 2016):

Predicted: +5.0
Actual: +0.55

Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...The July 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity flattened out for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index fell five points to 0.6. The new orders index and the shipments index both fell to levels not far from zero—a sign that orders and shipments were little changed. Labor market indicators pointed to a small decline in employment levels and hours worked. The prices paid index held steady at 18.7, suggesting that moderate input price increases were continuing, and the prices received index held near zero, indicating that selling prices remained steady. Firms were less optimistic about future conditions compared to last month..."

About this survey, from the NY Fed website:

"...Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead..."

Click here to view the full NY Fed report.

  • Last month, the actual figure was +6.01.

For a national perspective on manufacturing in the United States, check out the Institute of Supply Management's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for June 2016

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for June 2016:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.2%

Estimated Retail Sales for June: $457,000,000,000

Change from 12 Months Previous: +2.7%

=================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2016

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2016:

=========================================

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.0%)

=========================================

Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Thursday, July 14, 2016

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2016

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for June 2016 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.5%

Change from 12 months previous: +0.3%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous: +1.3%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.


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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 9, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 9, 2016:

Predicted: 265,000
Actual: 254,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Last Week (unrevised): 254,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 259,000

From today's report:

"...There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 71 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973..."

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 8, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 8, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -2,500,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +60,400,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 521,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translates to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

Click here for weekly crude oil prices.


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Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Latest GDPNow Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast for Q2:2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its latest GDPNow forecast for the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2016.

==============

Latest Forecast for Q2, 2016: +2.3%

Previous Reading (July 6, 2016): +2.4%


==============

GDPNow: July 12, 2016
GDPNow: July 12, 2016


==============


From Today's Report:

"...The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.3% on July 12, down from 2.4 percent on July 6. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth ticked down from -0.50 percentage points to -0.55 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau..."

About The GDPNow Forecast Model:

"...The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an 'advance' (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymaker have the Fed Board staff projection of this 'advance' estimate at their disposal...

...The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to 'nowcast' GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add 'color' to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids..."

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Wholesale Trade, Sales And Inventories, for May 2016

Earlier today, the Commerce Department released its report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories, for May 2016:

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Sales, change from previous month: +0.5

Sales, change from 12 months previous: -2.5

----------------------

Inventories, change from previous month: +0.1

Inventories, change from 12 months previous: +0.5

==============

The highlighted percentages represent the change in sales and inventories of merchant wholesalers, excluding manufacturers’ sales branches and offices.

When inventories swell and sales lag, manufacturing / production tends to wane, and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report (PDF.)


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Friday, July 08, 2016

Consumer Credit Status Report for May 2016

The Consumer Credit Status Report for May, 2016 was released by the Federal Reserve earlier this afternoon:

Total (preliminary): +6.2%

Revolving (preliminary): +3.0%

Nonrevolving (preliminary): +7.3%

The above figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in outstanding, installment-based consumer credit; does not include real-estate-secured loans, like mortgages.

============

Previous Month Total (revised): +4.5%

Previous Month Revolving (revised): +1.7%

Previous Month Nonrevolving (revised): +5.5%

============

Q1, 2016 (revised): +6.4% 

============

Total Outstanding Consumer Credit (preliminary): $3,623,700,000,000

 ============

Click here to view the full Consumer Credit report.


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Employment Situation Report for June 2016

The Employment Situation Report for June 2016 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +180,000
Actual: +287,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Predicted: 4.8%
Actual: 4.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 9.6%
Previous Reading: 9.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.0782%

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Reading: 62.6%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hrs
Actual: 34.4 hrs

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up (+$0.02) to $25.61 [+0.0782%], following a 6-cent increase in May. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.6%. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by $0.04 to $21.51 [+0.186%] in June...

...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +123,000 to +144,000, and the change for May was revised from +38,000 to +11,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 6,000 less, on net, than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 147,000 per month..."
[Establishment Survey Data]

====

* =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

 

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Thursday, July 07, 2016

Challenger Report on Corporate Layoffs for June 2016

Earlier today, the global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its report on Corporate Layoffs for June 2016:

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Job Cuts Announced During June 2016: 38,536
Previous month: 30,157
Change from previous month: +27.785%

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If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 1, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 1, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -2,200,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +58,600,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 524,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translates to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

Click here for weekly crude oil prices.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of July 2, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on July 2, 2016:

Predicted: 269,000
Actual: 254,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Last Week (revised): 270,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 264,750

From today's report:

"...There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 70 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973..."

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.



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Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Latest GDPNow Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast for Q2:2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its latest GDPNow forecast for the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2016.

==============

Latest Forecast for Q2, 2016: +2.4%

Previous Reading (July 1, 2016): +2.6%


==============

GDPNow: July 6, 2016
GDPNow: July 6, 2016

==============


From Today's Report:

"...The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.4% on July 6, down from 2.6 percent on July 1. The forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked down from 4.4 percent to 4.3 percent after yesterday's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.25 percentage points to 0.15 percentage points after this morning's international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau..."

About The GDPNow Forecast Model:

"...The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an 'advance' (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymaker have the Fed Board staff projection of this 'advance' estimate at their disposal...

...The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to 'nowcast' GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add 'color' to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids..."

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U.S. International Trade In Goods And Services for May, 2016

The U.S. International Trade In Goods And Services report for May, 2016 was released by The U.S. Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: $-40,000,000,000
Actual: $-41,100,000,000

A negative number represents a trade deficit, while a positive number represents a trade surplus.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Previous Month (revised): -37,400,000,000.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Tuesday, July 05, 2016

U.S. Factory Orders Report for May 2016

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for May 2016:

Predicted: -1.0%
Actual: -1.0%

The highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Previous Month (revised): +1.8.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Friday, July 01, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Index for June 2016

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for June 2016:

Predicted: 51.5%
Actual: 53.2%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

The previous PMI reading was 51.3%.

The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:


  •    'We are gaining new customers through better sales management.'
    (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  •     'Slower shipments because of weather related flooding.'
    (Chemical Products)
  •     'Conditions have remained steady from [the] past month and are in line with our forecast.'
    (Computer & Electronic Products)
     
  •     'Very good start of summer for business levels/orders.'
    (Fabricated Metal Products)
  •     'Business is steady with some signs of increase.'
    (Machinery)
  •     'Business is still strong, but slowing slightly.'
    (Transportation Equipment)
  •     'Business conditions are good, production and demand are stable.'
    (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
     
  •     'Orders are slowing from China. American customers still steady.'
    (Primary Metals)
     
  •     'Demand continues to be robust.'
    (Plastics & Rubber Products)
     
  •     'Business is still slower than expected.'
    (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
Click here to view the complete ISM report.


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Construction Spending During May 2016

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the Commerce Department -- released its Construction Spending report for May 2016:

Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: -0.8%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Previous Month (revised): -2.0%

Change from 12 months ago: +2.8%

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.


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