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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, December 30, 2016

2016 In American Financial Markets

On The Year (2016):


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Bull-Market Update:

Since the March 9, 2009 bear-market low:

  • S and P 500 Index: +230.928%

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): +203.711%

  • NASDAQ Composite: +324.322%

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Chart: S and P 500 Index
Chart: S and P 500 Index

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Chart: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
Chart: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

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Chart: NASDAQ Composite
Chart: NASDAQ Composite
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Thursday, December 29, 2016

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 23, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 23, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +600,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +31,000,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 486,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 24, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 24, 2016:

Predicted: 262,000
Actual: 265,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Last Week (unrevised): 275,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 263,000

From today's report:

"...There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 95 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970..."


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Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2016

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December 2016) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

Predicted: 108.5
Actual: 113.7

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer Confidence improved further in December, due solely to increasing Expectations which hit a 13-year high (Dec. 2003, 107.4),' said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The post-election surge in optimism for the economy, jobs and income prospects, as well as for stock prices which reached a 13-year high, was most pronounced among older consumers. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions, which declined, still suggests that economic growth continued through the final months of 2016. Looking ahead to 2017, consumers’ continued optimism will depend on whether or not their expectations are realized.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

Last month, the CCI was 109.4 (revised.)

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Friday, December 23, 2016

Consumer Sentiment: Final Result for December 2016

The Consumer Sentiment (final result) reading for December 2016 was released today:

Predicted: 98.0
Actual: 98.2

  • Change from Last Month: +4.691%
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: +6.048%

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The Consumer Sentiment Index is compiled on a monthly basis by the University of Michigan; 500 U.S. households are queried about their own financial circumstances and about the economy in general. 200 questions are asked, e.g. "Do you think that right now is a good time to purchase a major household item, like a new microwave oven, TV set, or a new sofa?"

The Consumer Sentiment Index uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the Consumer Sentiment Index = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as the sample that was polled back in 1966.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer insight into consumer spending.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Last month's Consumer Sentiment reading was 93.8.

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New Home Sales During November 2016

The November 2016 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: 580,000
Actual New Home Sales: 592,000

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Change from One Month Previous:  +5.2%

Change from One Year Previous: +16.5%

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Median Price for a New Home during November: $305,400

Average Price for a New Home during November: $359,900


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New Home Sales During November 2016
New Home Sales During November 2016




















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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers during the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

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Thursday, December 22, 2016

Leading Economic Index for November 2016

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® for November 2016 this morning:

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Index for November: 124.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2010 data.)

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: 0.0%

  • Previous Month: +0.1

  • 2 Months Previous: +0.3
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The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™


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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2016

Earlier today, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2016:

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

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Personal Income
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: 0.0%


The highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures) and Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: 0.0%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.4%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: 0.0%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.6%
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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Final Estimate for Q3, 2016

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) "final" (third estimate) report for the third quarter of 2016 was released this morning by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):

Predicted: +3.3%
Actual: +3.5%

The highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change in the Gross Domestic Product for the United States.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the actual or real figure.

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Corporate Profits

Actual: +4.3%* (After Tax; Y/Y)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital consumption adjustment) increased $117.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $12.5 billion in the second quarter.

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GDP, Third Quarter 2016, Final Estimate
GDP, Third Quarter 2016, Final Estimate

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."


* = Profits after tax (without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments)

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Durable Goods Orders During November 2016

The Durable Goods Orders report for November 2016 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: -4.0%
Actual: -4.6%

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  • Previous month, revised: +4.8%

  • Change from 12 months previous: -1.9%
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The highlighted figure represents the month-to-month change in orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers. Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. The Durable Goods Orders report is produced by the Commerce Department.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 17, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 17, 2016:

Predicted: 256,000
Actual: 275,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Last Week (unrevised): 254,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 263,750

From today's report:

"...There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 94 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970..."

Click here to view the full Labor Department report
 

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Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Existing Home Sales During November 2016

The Existing Home Sales report for November 2016 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 5,535,000
Actual: 5,610,000

Change from Previous Month: +0.7%
Change from One Year Previous: +15.4%

Inventory: 1,850,000 (4.0 months supply)

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The "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During November 2016: $234,900
Change from One Year Previous: +6.8%

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Average Price for A Used Home During November 2016: $276,800
Change from One Year Previous: +4.9%

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Click here for historical prices and a chart.


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Existing Home Sales - November 2016
Existing Home Sales - November 2016


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  • The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25TH day of each month.
Click here to view the full NAR report.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 16, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 16, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +2,300,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +33,000,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 485,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Friday, December 16, 2016

Housing Starts During November 2016

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released the Housing Starts report for November 2016:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,230,000
Actual: 1,090,000

Change From Previous Month: -18.7%
Change From One Year Previous: -6.9%

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,240,000
Actual: 1,201,000

Change From Previous Month: -4.7%
Change From One Year Previous: -6.6%

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Housing Starts: The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States,or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise --  and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Thursday, December 15, 2016

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 10, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 10, 2016:

Predicted: 255,000
Actual: 254,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Last Week (unrevised): 258,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 257,750

From today's report:

"...There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 93 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970..."

Click here to view the full Labor Department report
 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2016

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2016:

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Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.7%)

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%)

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
 

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Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization for November 2016

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for November 2016 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: -0.2%
Actual: -0.4%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: -0.1%

The above numbers (highlighted) represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 75.0%
Actual: 75.0

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report
 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 9, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 9, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -2,600,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +24,800,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 483,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for November 2016

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for November 2016:

Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.1%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods,and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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Previous Month (revised): +0.6%

Estimated Retail Sales During November: $465,500,000,000

Change from 12 Months Previous: +3.8%

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for November 2016

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for November 2016 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous: +1.3%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous: +1.6%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Import and Export Price Indexes for November 2016

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for November 2016:

Import Prices
Predicted: -0.4%
Actual: -0.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -0.1%

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Export Prices
Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: -0.1%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -0.3%

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The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Saturday, December 10, 2016

Bull-Market Update

The 3 major market indexes closed with record highs again yesterday, so here's a bull-market update.

Since the March 9, 2009 bear-market low:


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Chart: Dow Jones Industrial Average
Chart: Dow Jones Industrial Average

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Chart: S and P 500 Index
Chart: S and P 500 Index
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Chart: NASDAQ Composite
Chart: NASDAQ Composite

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Thursday, December 08, 2016

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 3, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 3, 2016:

Predicted: 255,000
Actual: 258,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Last Week (unrevised): 268,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 252,500

From today's report:

"...There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 92 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970..."

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Wednesday, December 07, 2016

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 2, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 2, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -2,400,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +32,200,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 485,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Tuesday, December 06, 2016

U.S. Factory Orders During October 2016

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for October 2016:

Predicted: +2.7%
Actual: +2.7%

The highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by from U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Previous Month (revised): +0.6.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

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Productivity and Labor Cost Report for Q3 2016 (Revised)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the third quarter of 2016 (revised reading):

Nonfarm Productivity
Predicted: +3.3%
Actual: +3.1%

Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.7%

The highlighted figures represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs.

From today's report:

"...The quarterly increase in nonfarm business sector labor productivity was the first increase after three consecutive declines in the measure. From the third quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016, productivity was unchanged..."

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Labor Productivity, Q3 2016
Labor Productivity, Q3 2016

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Unit Labor Costs, Q3 2016
Unit Labor Costs, Q3 2016
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For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

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Monday, December 05, 2016

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for November 2016

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for November 2016:

Predicted: 55.5%
Actual: 57.2%

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The NMI® is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service categories include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

The previous month's non-manufacturing NMI reading was 54.8%.

Here's a sampling of comments from survey participants:

  •     "We had almost [a] 9 percent jump month-over-month on active, secured projects in our variable side of business. We also acquired new customers in [the] past two months."
    (Construction)
     
  •     "Looking to close out Q4 with no significant changes positive or negative. Profits overall have been above projections."
    (Finance and Insurance)
     
  •     "Our health plan business still continues to struggle with rising costs under Obamacare, which is causing the whole company to experience cost pressures."
    (Health Care and Social Assistance)
  •     "Current business conditions continue to be depressed more than desired; although, there appears to be slight improvement. As our business is primarily driven by the oil & gas market, we follow the price of oil fairly close."
    (Mining)
     
  •     "Outlook for Q1 2017 is looking favorable with Q4 2016 ending as projected, perhaps slightly lower."
    (Professional, Scientific and Technical Services)
     
  •     "Increased sales for [the] holidays."
    (Retail Trade)
     
  •     "After the beginning of the fiscal year's flurry of orders, things have tapered off."
    (Public Administration)
Click here to view the complete ISM report


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Friday, December 02, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Index for November 2016

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for November 2016:

Predicted: 52.3%
Actual: 53.2%

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

The previous month's PMI reading was 51.9%.

The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:



  •     "Raw materials have been rather flat. Ramping up for year-end and reducing inventory is main supply chain goal at this time."
    (Chemical Products)
  •     "Strong manufacturing numbers in anticipation of strong year-end bookings."
    (Computer and Electronic Products)
  •     "Business is still steady. We are foregoing our shutdown over Christmas break due to an increase in customer orders."
    (Plastics
    and Rubber Products)
  •   "Heading into 2017, our business levels look pretty consistent compared to 2016."
    (Primary Metals)
  •    "Sector remains strong, orders and forecasts are consistent and demand outlook is positive."
    (Food, Beverage
    and Tobacco Products)
  •     "New spec buildings going up in our area. Local companies adding additional production space which equates to higher employment."
    (Machinery)
  •     "Business conditions are good. Labor market is tightening such that it is difficult to staff to completely fulfill production demand."
    (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  •     "We are seeing an upswing in customer Requests for Quotations this month; this is a positive sign for our business."
    (Textile Mills)
  •     "Continued strong seasonal demand for product."
    (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
     
  •     "2017 is looking to be a very busy year."
    (Fabricated Metal Products)
Click here to view the complete ISM report

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Employment Situation Report for November 2016

The Employment Situation Report for November 2016 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +170,000
Actual: +178,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Predicted: 4.9%
Actual: 4.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 9.3%
Previous Reading: 9.5%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -0.116%

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Reading: 62.8%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 3 cents to $25.89 [-0.116%] , following an 11-cent increase in October. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5%. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees edged up by 2 cents to $21.73 [+0.092%] in November...

...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up from +191,000 to +208,000, and the change for October was revised down from +161,000 to +142,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 2,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged
176,000 per month..." [Establishment Survey Data]

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* =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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Thursday, December 01, 2016

Construction Spending During October 2016

Earlier today, the U.S. Census Bureau -- which is part of the Commerce Department -- released its Construction Spending report for October 2016:

Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +0.5%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in new public and private construction activity for the United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Previous Month (revised): 0.0%

Change from 12 months previous: +3.4%

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 26, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 26, 2016:

Predicted: 253,000
Actual: 268,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Last Week (unrevised): 251,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 251,500

From today's report:

"...There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 91 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970..."

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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