tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-192308282024-03-17T22:59:43.484-04:00EconomyEconomic Data (USA)Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3881125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-89807943484254309822024-03-16T00:27:00.000-04:002024-03-16T00:27:29.041-04:00Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) February 2024
<p></p><div style="clear: both;"></div>The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2024 was <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm" target="_blank">released</a> this morning:<br /><br />
Previous Month: +0.3% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual:</span> <b>+0.6% </b></span><br />
<b><br />
</b> <b>Change from 12 months previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;">+1.6%</span></b><br />
<br />
=============<br />
<br />
Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed: <br />
<br />Previous Month: +0.6%<br /><b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.4%</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<b>Change from 12 months previous: </b><b> <span style="background-color: cyan;">+2.8%</span></b><br />
<br />
=============<br />
<br />
The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month
change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services,
for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final
demand.<br />
<br />
<b>Final Demand</b> = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.<br />
<br />
The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
<p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><br /> ==============</p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a target="_blank" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieUEO3nKV8-1DqrQMREx5phH_kYERGoEDvB4feZylIYrKsF9dMvNVGlSna9812lkSHqty7a7iRifqJCgRkYaNNeWkOv3vq-6POcFiJq7tUCm-iE6x1N5TFI88R7PP56k6r2YuJL17OKV3M_evWX87lUSr9n6gsm2QPcJm82NVPtgOf3GKgpnqE8Q/s999/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Producer-Price-Index--PPI--Final-Demand--FEBRUARY--2024--UPDATE--POST.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - February 2024 Update" border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="999" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieUEO3nKV8-1DqrQMREx5phH_kYERGoEDvB4feZylIYrKsF9dMvNVGlSna9812lkSHqty7a7iRifqJCgRkYaNNeWkOv3vq-6POcFiJq7tUCm-iE6x1N5TFI88R7PP56k6r2YuJL17OKV3M_evWX87lUSr9n6gsm2QPcJm82NVPtgOf3GKgpnqE8Q/w400-h285/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Producer-Price-Index--PPI--Final-Demand--FEBRUARY--2024--UPDATE--POST.jpg" title="CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - February 2024 Update" width="400" /></a></div></div>CHART: Producer Price Index<br /> Final Demand (PPI-FD)<br />12-Month Percent Change<br />February 2024 Update<br /></div><div><p>==============<br /><br /></p><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div><p></p><div>
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<ul><li> <a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Inflation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Producer-Price-Index-PPI-FD-FEBRUARY-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a>.</li></ul><p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-64684504080417028782024-03-12T21:33:00.000-04:002024-03-12T21:33:07.583-04:00Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2024Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's <i>Bureau of Labor Statistics</i> <a href="http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#news" target="_blank">released</a> the <b>Consumer Price Index (CPI)</b> for February 2024:<p>
<br />
=========================================</p><p>CPI During February 2024: <b>310.326</b></p><p>=========================================</p><p><b><u>Consumer Price Index, Headline<br /></u></b><br />
Predicted: +0.5%<br />
<b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.62% (+1.909 points)</span></b><br />
<br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b><b>Change From 12 Months Ago</b>: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+3.15% (+9.486 points)<br /></span></span></b></li></ul><p>
<br />
=========================================</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><b><u>Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)</u></b><br /><br />
Predicted: +0.5%<br />
<b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.57% (+1.796 points)</span></b><br />
<br />
</p><b style="font-weight: bold;">Change From 12 Months Ago</b><b>: </b><span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>+3.75% (+11.408 points)</b></span></span><p><br />=========================================<br />
<br />
The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (<b>not</b> seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a <span style="font-weight: bold;">very</span> important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
<br />
General categories that constitute the CPI are:<br />
<br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Healthcare </li><li>Housing </li><li>Clothing </li><li>Communications </li><li>Education </li><li>Transportation </li><li>Food and Beverages </li><li>Recreation </li><li>Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)</li></ul><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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</div><div><p>========================================</p><p>CPI During February 2023: <b>300.840</b></p><p>========================================</p><p style="text-align: center;"></p></div><div style="text-align: left;"> <br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0YV541P4fyAdVfk5yxnEgT2uU4ocGwwzKOCc00YVCLE3gZaZ9K7afnFC3t-b6htKFA8joxwr3u-uyUOHHEG5XkauYKH_fhv3EgAhBgKLLiduoEqt3_eQ-xflGwevP2xAfUmBHDN8R3XPf-P4r8A2ntrQKo2ODomXCiGKKJymrrGJNw3Zg1Nldxg/s999/CHART--Consumer-Price-Index--12-Month-Percentage-Change--FEBRUARY--2024-UPDATE---POST.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - February 2024 Update" border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="999" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0YV541P4fyAdVfk5yxnEgT2uU4ocGwwzKOCc00YVCLE3gZaZ9K7afnFC3t-b6htKFA8joxwr3u-uyUOHHEG5XkauYKH_fhv3EgAhBgKLLiduoEqt3_eQ-xflGwevP2xAfUmBHDN8R3XPf-P4r8A2ntrQKo2ODomXCiGKKJymrrGJNw3Zg1Nldxg/w400-h266/CHART--Consumer-Price-Index--12-Month-Percentage-Change--FEBRUARY--2024-UPDATE---POST.jpg" title="CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - February 2024 Update" width="400" /></a></div>CHART: Consumer Price Index<br /> 12-Month Percentage Change<br />February 2024 Update<br /></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"></div></div><div><p></p><p>========================================</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/CPI/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Consumer-Price-Index-CPI--February-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a>.<br /></li></ul><p style="text-align: left;">
=========================================</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p></div><div></div><p></p><p>
</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-35438706969992474692024-03-09T02:32:00.000-05:002024-03-09T02:32:52.188-05:00Employment Situation Report for February 2024Employment Situation Report for February 2024 was <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf" target="_blank">released</a> by The Department of Labor's <i>Bureau of Labor Statistics</i> this morning:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Nonfarm Payrolls</span> </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="font-size: xx-small;">(month-to-month change)</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: black;">Actual:</span> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">+275,000</span></span></span></span><br /><div>Previous Month (Revised): 229,000<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span>One Year Previous: 287,000<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: black;">Actual:</span> 3.9</span><span><span style="font-weight: bold;">%</span></span></span></span><br />
Previous Month: 3.7%<br />
12 Months Previous: 3.6%<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">U-6 Unemployment Rate<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: black;">Actual:</span> 7.3</span><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">%</span></span></span><br />
Previous Month: 7.2%<br />
12 Months Previous: 6.8%<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Hourly Earnings</span> (month-to-month change)<br />
Predicted: +0.4% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">+0.145% (+$0.05)</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Hourly Earnings </span>(year-on-year change)<br />
Predicted: +4.3%<br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">+</span></span></span><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">4.28% (+$1.42)</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Weekly Earnings</span></span> (month-to-month change)<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: <span style="color: red;">+4.38</span></span></span><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">% (+$5.17)</span></span></span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Weekly Earnings</span> (year-on-year change)<br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">+3.68%</span></span></span><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> (+$42.07)</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<b>Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate</b>: <span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>62.5%</b></span></span><br />
Previous Month: 62.5%<br />
12 Months Previous: 62.5%<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Workweek</span><br />
Predicted: 34.3 hours<br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">34.3 hours</span></span></span><br />
<br />
Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close
attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers
penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the
overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the
economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money
being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
<br />
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</div></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1w7VYw7dS-LOycYoAmBUb4GjPVJ88EeQj5P0090_cADADKUJfXjKdXZqjkkh973ElJjaBwgEHJhwxPAlsNcvoSP0obvm1jKN91nwTBrsbSOi4dgpaqXueaJSWUwkOhfau33DpBHyaAcv2d2wqN8Pkq6a0L2aYRtbkS529dC9KFU5_SMP8PyYB-g/s528/CHART--Fed-Prime-Rate-U-3-Headline-Unemployment-Rate--FEBRUARY--2024--Update.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Month-to-Month Change In Nonfarm Payroll Employment - February 2022 thru February 2024" border="0" data-original-height="372" data-original-width="528" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1w7VYw7dS-LOycYoAmBUb4GjPVJ88EeQj5P0090_cADADKUJfXjKdXZqjkkh973ElJjaBwgEHJhwxPAlsNcvoSP0obvm1jKN91nwTBrsbSOi4dgpaqXueaJSWUwkOhfau33DpBHyaAcv2d2wqN8Pkq6a0L2aYRtbkS529dC9KFU5_SMP8PyYB-g/w400-h281/CHART--Fed-Prime-Rate-U-3-Headline-Unemployment-Rate--FEBRUARY--2024--Update.jpg" title="CHART: Month-to-Month Change In Nonfarm Payroll Employment - February 2022 thru February 2024" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white;"></span></div><div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white;">CHART: Month-to-Month Change<br />In Nonfarm Payroll Employment<br /></span><span style="background-color: white;">February 2022 thru </span><span style="background-color: white;">February 2024<br /><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"> ===================</div>
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<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span></span> = The <span style="font-weight: bold;">U-6 Unemployment Rate </span>is defined as:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor
force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent
of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the
labor force."</blockquote>
<br />
===================<br />
<br />
<ul><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Employment-Situation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Jobs-Employment-Situation-JANUARY-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.</a></li></ul><p>
<br />=================== </p></div></div><p></p>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-38429789889335613402024-03-06T12:00:00.051-05:002024-03-07T22:05:02.041-05:00Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for January 2024Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for January 2024 was <a href="https://www.bls.gov/jlt" target="_blank">released</a> by the Labor Department this morning:<br />
<br /><b>=============<br />
</b><br />
<u><b>Job Openings</b></u><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>
Predicted: 8,800,000<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>
<b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual</span><span style="background-color: yellow;">: 8,863,000</span> </b></li></ul>
-------------------------<br />
<ul><li>Previous Month (revised): <b>8,889,000</b><br />
<br />
</li><li>One Year Previous: <b>10,425,000</b><br /><br /></li><li>Change from one year previous: <b>-15.0% (-1,562,000) </b><br /></li></ul><p>
<br />
<b>=============<br />
<span style="background-color: cyan;"><br />
</span> <span style="background-color: cyan;"><u>HIRES</u>: 5,687,000 </span></b></p><b>HIRES vs. 12 Months </b><b>P<span>revious</span>: -10.78% (-687,000)</b><br /><br /><b>-----------</b><br /><br /> <p><b><span style="background-color: #ffd966;"><u>QUITS:</u> 3,385,000 </span></b></p><p><b>QUITS vs. 12 Months P<span>revious</span>: -12.8% (-497,000)</b></p><p><br /><b>-----------<br /><br /></b></p><p><span style="background-color: #cfe2f3;"><b><u>LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES:</u> 1,572,000 </b></span></p><p><b>LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES </b><b> vs. 12 Months P<span>revious</span>: -15.85% (-296,000)</b><br /><b><br />-----------<br /><br /></b></p><p><b></b></p><p><b></b></p><p></p><p> </p><p>
<b><span style="background-color: #f4cccc;"><u>TOTAL SEPARATIONS <sup>§</sup></u>: 5,341,000<br /></span></b></p><p><b>TOTAL SEPARATIONS</b> <b>vs. 12 Months P<span>revious</span>: -11.23% (-676,000)</b></p><b>============= </b><br />
<div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <br /></div></div><p>
<u> <span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>§ = Here's How The Labor Department <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD8">Defines</span> Total Separations:</b></span></u><br />
</p><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">"Total separations
includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total
separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary
separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can
serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.
Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the
employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement,
death, disability, and transfers to other <span class="IL_AD" id="IL_AD3">locations</span> of the same firm."</span></blockquote><p>
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<ul><li>* = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. <br />
<br />
</li><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/JOLTS/Fed-Prime-Rate-Job-Openings-and-Labor-Turnover-Survey--JANUARY--2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report</a>.<br />
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</li></ul>
<div style="clear: both; padding-bottom: 0.25em;">============= </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-40758342175039872792024-02-29T12:00:00.000-05:002024-02-29T12:00:28.861-05:00 PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for January 2024The Commerce Department's <i>Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)</i> <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm" target="_blank">released</a> its report on <b>The PCE Price Index,</b><b> Consumer Spending </b>and<b> Personal Income</b> for January 2024:<br />
<br />
============= <br />
<br />
<b><u><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">Consumer Spending</span></u> </b>(Personal Consumption Expenditures)<br />
<br />Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%
<ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span></span><b>Actual:</b><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> +0.2%</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></li></ul>
<ul><li><b>Actual:</b> <span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: white;">(</span></span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">2017 Chained<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span> Dollars): <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">-0.1%</span></span></span></span></span></span></li></ul>
============= <br />
<br />
<u><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Personal Income</span></span></u><br />
<br />
Previous Reading: (unrevised) +0.3%
<ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: +1.0%</span></span></li></ul>
============= <br />
<br />
<ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: <span style="background-color: #01ffff;">+0.3%</span></span> </li></ul>
<ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Disposable Personal Income</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">(2017 Chained<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span> Dollars)</span></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">:</span> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: #01ffff;">FLAT</span></span> </li></ul>
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============= <br />
<br />
The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in
Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal
Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.<br />
<br />
============= <br />
<div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div>
<br />
<b>Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index</b><br />
Previous Reading: +0.1% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual:</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> +0.3% </span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
<ul><li><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>Change from 12 months previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+2.4%</span></span></b></span></li></ul>
=====================<br />
<br />
<b>Core PCE Price Index</b><br />
( = <i>PCE Price Index</i> minus food and energy)<br />
Previous Reading: +0.1% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: +0.4</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">% </span></span><br />
<br />
<ul><li><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>Change from 12 months </b></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>previous</b></span>: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+2.8%</span></span></b></span></li></ul>
=====================<br />
<br />
The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change
in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption. The <b>PCE Price Index </b>is different from the <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/cpi" target="_blank">Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a>
in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with
domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited <i>fixed basket </i>of goods and services.<br />
<br />
The broad nature of the <b>PCE Price Index </b>is key to why it is the <a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/How-The-Federal-Reserve-Measures-Inflation.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>'s preferred measure of <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a>. The Federal Open Market Committee (<a href="https://primerate.fedprimerate.com/2022/06/usa-banks-banking-fed-fomc-meeting-schedule-2023.html" target="_blank">FOMC</a>) pays very close attention to it. <br />
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===================== <br />
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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.<br />
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=====================<br /><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Inflation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Personal-Income--Consumer-Spending--Core-PCE-Price-Index--JANUARY--2024.pdf" target="_blank"><br /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Inflation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Personal-Income--Consumer-Spending--Core-PCE-Price-Index--JANUARY--2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full<br /> Commerce Department report (PDF)</a>. <br /><br />===================== <br /></div> <p style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkIS8WLbxN-WA5MN0_kNt0RAV3Y6OLAVLgVVsUtjqvjWQk9cDC_X9tbjOpdJnsR7O6Ryh5zPRs7_LbQKRjcuywbg9NiG9C3bhRyBG1NKV7Xy_W3k4dLIkU8ENt2n92UpqkW0f5hF_i3KSmb3Z37BmN-nMNEjC08StAKzy0rzFwekLSKlo3DwWUcw/s999/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Disposable-Personal-Income--Outlays--Savings--JANUARY--2024--UPDATE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - January 2024 Update" border="0" data-original-height="509" data-original-width="999" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkIS8WLbxN-WA5MN0_kNt0RAV3Y6OLAVLgVVsUtjqvjWQk9cDC_X9tbjOpdJnsR7O6Ryh5zPRs7_LbQKRjcuywbg9NiG9C3bhRyBG1NKV7Xy_W3k4dLIkU8ENt2n92UpqkW0f5hF_i3KSmb3Z37BmN-nMNEjC08StAKzy0rzFwekLSKlo3DwWUcw/w400-h204/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Disposable-Personal-Income--Outlays--Savings--JANUARY--2024--UPDATE.jpg" title="CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - January 2024 Update" width="400" /></a></div>CHART: Disposable Personal Income,<br /> Outlays + Savings - January 2024 Update<br /></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"> ===================== <br /></p><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span></span></span> = <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chained_dollars" target="_blank">Chained dollars</a> is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a>
over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years.
The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996.
Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as
the base year.</blockquote></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-25770863459799616912024-02-28T21:27:00.000-05:002024-02-28T21:27:38.476-05:00Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February 2024Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February) was <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm" target="_blank">released</a> by <b><a href="https://www.conference-board.org" target="_blank">The Conference Board</a>®</b> this morning:<br />
<br />
================ <br />
<br />
Predicted: 112.0<br />
<ul><li><b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: 106.7</span></b></li></ul>
<br />
================<br />
<br />
Previous Month (revised): <b>110.9</b><b> <br /></b> <br />
<ul><li><b>Change from Previous Month</b><span style="font-weight: bold;">: <span style="background-color: cyan;">-3.79% (-4.2 points)</span><br />
</span></li></ul>
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================<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure. <br />
<br />
<u><b>From Today's Report:</b></u><br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in February to 106.7 (1985 = 100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains. However, as January was revised downward from the preliminary reading of 114.8, the data now suggest that there was not a material breakout to the upside in confidence at the start of 2024.<br /><br />The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/jobs" target="_blank">labor market conditions</a></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"> -- </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">fell back to 147.2 (1985 = 100) in February from 154.9 in January. The Expectations Index</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"> -- </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"> -- </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">slipped to 79.8 (1985 = 100), down from a revised 81.5 in January. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals recession ahead.<br /><br />'The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/personal_income" target="_blank">income groups</a> except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54.'<br /><br />Peterson added: 'February’s write-in responses revealed that while overall <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a> remained the main preoccupation of consumers, they are now a bit less concerned about food and <a href="https://www.fedprimerate.com/crude-oil-price-history.htm#recent-crude-oil-close" target="_blank">gas prices</a>, which have eased in recent months. But they are more concerned about the labor market situation and the US political environment.'<br /><br />Assessments of the present situation weakened in February, as consumers’ views of both business conditions and the <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/employment_situation">employment situation</a> became less favorable. Furthermore, consumers’ assessments of their personal financial situation (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index) also weakened.<br /><br />Consumer expectations for the next six months deteriorated in February, driven by renewed pessimism regarding future business and <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/jobs" target="_blank">labor market conditions</a>. Consumers were also a bit less optimistic about their family financial situation over the next six months (a measure not included in calculating the Expectations Index). Additionally, consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months picked back up after falling over the previous three months.<br /><br />On a six-month basis, buying plans for autos, homes, and big-ticket appliances dipped slightly. The share of consumers planning a vacation over the next six months also declined. Expectations that <a href="https://primerate.fedprimerate.com/" target="_blank">interest rates</a> will rise over the year ahead picked up slightly to 42.7%, which may have influenced buying plans. Meanwhile, consumers remained upbeat about <a href="https://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-history.htm#recent-sandp500-close" target="_blank">stock prices</a> over the year ahead.<br /><br />Average 12-month inflation expectations ticked down further to 5.2% in February. After peaking at 7.9% in mid-2022, expected </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a> </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"> has now fallen to its lowest level since March 2020, when it stood at 4.5%. This aligns with continued slowing in consumer price</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"> <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a> </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"> in government reports and fewer complaints about food and <a href="https://www.fedprimerate.com/crude-oil-price-history.htm#recent-crude-oil-close" target="_blank">energy prices</a> in our survey.<br /><br /><b>Present Situation</b><br /><br />Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions fell slightly in February.<br /><br /> 21.2% of consumers said business conditions were 'good,' down slightly from 21.3% in January.<br /> 17.1% said business conditions were 'bad,' up from 15.3%.<br /><br />Consumers’ appraisal of the <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/jobs" target="_blank">labor market</a> was also less positive in February.<br /><br /> 41.3% of consumers said jobs were 'plentiful,' down from 42.7% in January.<br /><br /> 13.5% of consumers said <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/jobs" target="_blank">jobs</a> were 'hard to get,' up from 11.0%.<br /><br /><b>Expectations Six Months Hence </b> <br /><br />Consumers were, on balance, more pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in February.<br /><br /> 14.8% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, down from 16.7% in January.<br /> 15.5% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 16.0%.<br /><br />Consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was more pessimistic in February.<br /><br /> 14.7% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, down from 15.6% in January.<br /> 17.3% anticipate fewer jobs, up from 16.7%.<br /><br />Consumers’ assessment of their <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/personal_income" target="_blank">short-term income</a> prospects was, on balance, more optimistic in February.<br /><br /> 16.9% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 17.1% in January.<br /> 11.3% expect their incomes to decrease, down from 12.5%.<br /><br /><b>Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk</b><br /><br /> Consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Current Financial Situation was less positive in February.<br /><br /> Consumers were a bit less optimistic about their Family’s Financial Situation going forward.<br /><br /> Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months ticked up in February.<br /><br /> Consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Current <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/personal_income" target="_blank">Financial Situation</a> was less positive in February.<br /><br /> Consumers were a bit less optimistic about their Family’s Financial Situation going forward.<br /><br /> Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months ticked up in February.</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">.</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">."</span></blockquote>
<br />
Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S.
households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings
regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own
fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return
the 5-question survey.<br />
<br />
<ul><li> The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.</li></ul><p>
<br />
When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.<br />
<br />
Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private,
not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate
knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses
strengthen their performance and better serve society."<br />
<br />
The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.<br />
</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: center;">================ <br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguUkF6lzhH_dgse9MQ4tqlY8PVJaLaAkwDeH-1uweM0Jw4YM3CliWIIy8P8Vz7zSsHLW1uwIoqtYxQ7lJ5fkTx3PUgKp1FprWKY4KgzsgHQxU7YTNnugMcy675_-ONOJ2_MZa4HY6XFphS3v1Kc-BHgqmBlhotkyz7BjlI8Aov_7gv7LEdamdIOA/s1385/Consumer-Confidence-Index---FEBRUARY---2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - February 2024 Update" border="0" data-original-height="745" data-original-width="1385" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguUkF6lzhH_dgse9MQ4tqlY8PVJaLaAkwDeH-1uweM0Jw4YM3CliWIIy8P8Vz7zSsHLW1uwIoqtYxQ7lJ5fkTx3PUgKp1FprWKY4KgzsgHQxU7YTNnugMcy675_-ONOJ2_MZa4HY6XFphS3v1Kc-BHgqmBlhotkyz7BjlI8Aov_7gv7LEdamdIOA/w400-h215/Consumer-Confidence-Index---FEBRUARY---2024.png" title="CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - February 2024 Update" width="400" /></a></div>CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)<br />February 2024 Update</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;">================</p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtdOanhlcv9pt7yR4Ml_KDZHizd2ONK3cKiIdGluWCRBHWRTpnBuNgPCFmWnUAUYz_dHA5VlxYlYh5820rGBLHmRFBrexxcfQn7W6vQE2Dhwfw9wpmK0jxGWOu7ZOLBIlsaUKhKIKAk829ODMPZ-A8xfiOhy9oS4897F_fpNPVzXyu93O-t9BieQ/s999/CHART--Perceived-Likelihood-Recession-Over-Next-12-Months--FEBRUARY--2024--UPDATE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Perceived Likelihood of A Recession Over The Next 12 Months - FEBRUARY 2024 UPDATE" border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="999" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtdOanhlcv9pt7yR4Ml_KDZHizd2ONK3cKiIdGluWCRBHWRTpnBuNgPCFmWnUAUYz_dHA5VlxYlYh5820rGBLHmRFBrexxcfQn7W6vQE2Dhwfw9wpmK0jxGWOu7ZOLBIlsaUKhKIKAk829ODMPZ-A8xfiOhy9oS4897F_fpNPVzXyu93O-t9BieQ/w400-h200/CHART--Perceived-Likelihood-Recession-Over-Next-12-Months--FEBRUARY--2024--UPDATE.jpg" title="CHART: Perceived Likelihood of A Recession Over The Next 12 Months - FEBRUARY 2024 UPDATE" width="400" /></a></div><p style="text-align: center;">CHART: Perceived Likelihood of A Recession<br /> Over The Next 12 Months<br /> FEBRUARY 2024 UPDATE<br /></p><p style="text-align: center;">================</p><div><div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><ul><li> <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Conference Board report</a>.<br />
</li></ul></ul>
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<br />
Previous Month (revised): 651,000<br />
</p><ul><li><b>Actual New Home Sales: <span style="background-color: yellow;">661,000</span></b></li></ul>
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<ul><li>Change from 1 Month Previous:<span style="font-weight: bold;"> +10</span><span style="font-weight: bold;">,000 units (+1.54%)<br />
<br />
</span></li><li>Change from 1 Year Previous<span style="font-weight: bold;">: +12,000</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> units (+1.85%)</span></li></ul><p>
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<span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span>Median Price for a New Home<br />
During January, 2024<span style="font-weight: bold;">: </span><b><span style="background-color: cyan;">$420,700</span></b><br /> </p><p>***************************<br />
<br />
Average Price for a New Home<br />
During January, 2024<span style="font-weight: bold;">: </span><span style="background-color: cyan;"><b>$534,300</b></span> <br />
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<b>Inventory: 456,000</b> (8.3 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)<br />
<br />
------------------------------------------------------</p><p>
</p><p>================================</p><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhueRdhHn4FsPnd4l3Vo5ESzK_TLJMTckQnu1-Osff5gbpB-SwkFR2yBb9tszWAUf55virItHrKfVDLzeqd-ex3MWCJAnWkkZyniOeZ2V25UWHrjBDFr058OvXfY8I5oKi2hl9dVfJWPQbvDsMp4E7Ttg-pzIHN7oimAHkibvi0LMHo1czybJYYVQ/s549/Fed-Prime-Rate--Housing--New-Home-Sales-Annual-Rate----JANUARY----2024.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: New Home Sales - January, 2024 Update" border="0" data-original-height="343" data-original-width="549" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhueRdhHn4FsPnd4l3Vo5ESzK_TLJMTckQnu1-Osff5gbpB-SwkFR2yBb9tszWAUf55virItHrKfVDLzeqd-ex3MWCJAnWkkZyniOeZ2V25UWHrjBDFr058OvXfY8I5oKi2hl9dVfJWPQbvDsMp4E7Ttg-pzIHN7oimAHkibvi0LMHo1czybJYYVQ/w400-h250/Fed-Prime-Rate--Housing--New-Home-Sales-Annual-Rate----JANUARY----2024.jpg" title="CHART: New Home Sales - January, 2024 Update" width="400" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white;">CHART: New Home Sales<br />January, 2024 Update</span><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div><p>================================<br />
<br />
</p><div><ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="background-color: white;"><a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/new_home_sales_price_history.htm#recentnewhomesalesprices" target="_blank">Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart</a>.</span></li></ul>
<br />
================================<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<br />
Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department
of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above
is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes
with committed buyers for the indicated month.<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
<br />
The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because
it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also
provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household
furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave
ovens, etc.<br />
<br />
<br />
================================<br />
<br />
<ul><li> <a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/New-Home-Sales/Fed-Prime-Rate-Housing----NEW----HOME---SALES----JANUARY---2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)</a><br />
<br />
</li></ul><p>
================================ <br /></p></div></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-72272843225028633212024-02-23T12:16:00.000-05:002024-02-23T12:16:06.723-05:00New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 17, 2024<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/prime-rate-website-sitemap.htm" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" target="_blank"><img alt="Jobless Claims" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8D9w8ZNvon-_nKGPazhPq1BXN88pjOu4FWInHC-7KzYwP6KuySZ7t6WzlPxeVeIFFSg0N3xgfHe2GKaUpiN-_33YUW7zUe2FPNAVndq9QPFM-aygVr1A5a9rGPyVKSizYXm_4g/s400/Fed-Prime-Rate-Jobless-2.jpg" title="Jobless Claims" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jobless Claims</td></tr>
</tbody></table><p>
<br />
Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly <a href="http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> on <b>New Jobless Insurance Claims</b> for the week that ended on February 17, 2024:<br />
<br />
====================<br /><br />Predicted: 215,000<br />
<br />
</p><ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: 201,000</span></span></li></ul>
====================<br />
<br />
The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims
for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted"
figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the
true or real figure.<br />
<br />
<ul><li>Previous Week (revised): 213,000</li></ul>
<ul><li><b>4-Week Moving Average: <span style="background-color: cyan;">215,250 </span></b></li></ul><p>====================<br /><br /></p><p></p><p></p><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<ul><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Jobless-Claims/Fed-Prime-Rate--Jobs--Unemployment-Insurance-Weekly-Claims--FEBRUARY-17-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a></li></ul><p>
</p><p></p><p></p><p><br />
====================</p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-79225343966045236492024-02-21T10:26:00.000-05:002024-02-21T10:26:06.027-05:00Leading Economic Index for January 2024The Conference Board® <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators" target="_blank">released</a> its <b>Leading Economic Index</b><b><i>®</i> (</b><b><a href="https://data-central.conference-board.org/" target="_blank">LEI</a></b><b>) </b>for January 2024 this morning:<br />
<br />
==============<br />
<br />
<b>Index for January 2024</b><b>: <span style="background-color: cyan;">102.7</span> </b>(The baseline <i>100</i> score is associated with 2016 data.)<br />
<br />
==============<br />
<br />
Predicted: -0.4%<br /><br />
<div class="post-body">
<div class="post-body">
<ul><li><b>Actual: </b><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">-0.39% (-0.4 point M/M)</span><br /><br /></span></span></li><li><b>Change from 12 Months Ago: <span style="background-color: white;">-6.8% (-7.5 points)</span></b> </li></ul>
<br />
============== <br />
<ul><li>LEI for December 2023: <b>103.1</b><br /><br /></li><li>LEI for November 2023: <b>103.3</b><br /><br /></li><li>LEI for October 2023: <b>103.7</b><br /><br /></li><li>LEI for September 2023: <b>104.7</b><br /><br /></li><li>LEI for August 2023: <b>105.5</b><br /><br /></li><li>LEI for July 2023: <b>105.9</b> <br /><br /></li><li>LEI for June 2023: <b>106.1<br /></b> <br /></li><li>LEI for May 2023: <b>106.7<br /></b> <br /></li><li>LEI for April 2023: <b>107.4</b><br /><br /></li><li>LEI for March 2023: <b>108.3<br /></b> <br /></li><li>LEI for February 2023: <b>109.6<br /><br /></b></li><li>LEI for January 2023: <b>110.2</b><br /><br /></li><li>LEI for December 2022: <b>110.7<br /></b> <br /></li><li>LEI for November 2022: <b>111.5</b> <br /><br /></li><li>LEI for October 2022: <b>112.5</b> <br /><br /></li><li>LEI for September 2022: <b>113.5<br /></b> <br /></li><li>LEI for August 2022: <b>116.4<br /></b> <br /></li><li>LEI for July 2022: <b>116.4</b><br /><br /></li><li>LEI for June 2022: <b>117.1<br /></b> <br /></li><li>LEI for May 2022: <b>117.9</b><br /><br /></li><li>LEI for April 2022: <b>118.7<br /><br /></b></li><li>LEI for March 2022: <b>119.3<br /><br /></b></li><li>LEI for February 2022: <b>119.4<br /><br /></b></li><li>LEI for January 2022:<b> <b>118.5 <br /></b></b></li></ul>
<br />============== <br />
<br />
The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the
index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while
the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
<br />
The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases
that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the
components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease
before national economic upturns or downturns:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<ol><li>The <a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-history.htm#recent-sandp500-close" target="_blank">Standard + Poor's 500 Index<br />
</a><br />
</li><li>Average <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/unemployment" target="_blank">weekly claims for unemployment insurance<br />
<br />
</a></li><li><a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/housing_starts" target="_blank">Building permits</a> for new private housing<br />
<br />
</li><li>The interest rate spread between the <a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/10-Year-US-Treasury-Yield-History.htm#current" target="_blank">yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note</a> and Federal Funds<br />
<br />
</li><li><a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/pmi" target="_blank">ISM</a>® Index of New Orders <br />
<br />
</li><li>Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials<br />
<br />
</li><li>Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders<br />
<br />
</li><li>Average weekly manufacturing hours<br />
<br />
</li><li>Average consumer expectations for business conditions<br />
<br />
</li><li>Leading Credit Index™<br />
</li></ol>
<br />==============<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;"></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white;"></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white;"></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguUHwjtBp8V6At26R9OEmLdZiMskSdjfUlzx8Z_dTOknawhLSI5d6bkfEtztpqMHvLNqdZx-kE4sf61ycrArW3aIsAIyWUmNlcO28-hb9Oi958s3iBDVfAlpRQjNM06ZxToje5hYzEpElRPasc0z1LxNKqS5LVEgxq8CKcW6MqoxzdCEiRjzRmHQ/s999/Leading-Economic-Index--6-Month-Growth--Warning-and-Recession-Signals---JANUARY---2024---UPDATE--RECESSION-SIGNAL--.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - January 2024 UPDATE" border="0" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="999" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguUHwjtBp8V6At26R9OEmLdZiMskSdjfUlzx8Z_dTOknawhLSI5d6bkfEtztpqMHvLNqdZx-kE4sf61ycrArW3aIsAIyWUmNlcO28-hb9Oi958s3iBDVfAlpRQjNM06ZxToje5hYzEpElRPasc0z1LxNKqS5LVEgxq8CKcW6MqoxzdCEiRjzRmHQ/w400-h199/Leading-Economic-Index--6-Month-Growth--Warning-and-Recession-Signals---JANUARY---2024---UPDATE--RECESSION-SIGNAL--.jpg" title="CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - January 2024 UPDATE" width="400" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white;">CHART: Leading Economic Index<br /> 6-Month Growth Rate<br /> with Warning + Recession Signals<br />January 2024 UPDATE<br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: left;">==============<br />
</div></div></div><div class="post-body"><div style="text-align: left;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<u><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>From Today's Report:</b></span></u></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><br />
</span> <span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4% in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2% decline in December 2023. The LEI contracted by 3.0% over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, a smaller decrease than the 4.1 percent decline over the previous six months.<br /><br />'The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/" target="_blank">economic activity</a>, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024.) As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3.'<br /><br />The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in January 2024 to 112.1 (2016 = 100), after a 0.2% increase in December 2023. The CEI expanded by 1.0% in the six-month period ending January 2024, down from a 0.8% growth rate over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators -- <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/jobs" target="_blank">payroll employment</a>, <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/Income" target="_blank">personal income</a> less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Three out of four components of the index were positive in January, with <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/jobs" target="_blank">payroll employment</a> and <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/Income" target="_blank">personal income</a> less transfer payments having the strongest contributions, followed by a much smaller positive contribution from manufacturing and trade sales.<br /><br />The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. rose by 0.4% in January 2024 to 118.6 (2016 = 100), reversing a decline of 0.4% in December 2023. The LAG is up by 0.9% over the six-month period from July to January 2024, following a decline of 0.1% over the previous six months.<br /><br />The LEI still declined in January 2024 but at the slowest pace since March 2023..</span></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">."</span></span></blockquote>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
==============<br />
</div>
</div>
<div class="post-body">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;"><li> <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators" target="_blank">Click Here to view the Conference Board report. <br /></a></li></ul><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
============== </div></div></div></div><p></p>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-49097356127137227052024-02-17T15:46:00.040-05:002024-02-22T09:12:31.288-05:00Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for February 2024
<p></p><div style="clear: both;"></div><div>The University of Michigan's <b><i>Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS)</i> <i>- Preliminary Results</i> </b>for February 2024 was <a href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/" target="_blank">released</a> today:<br />
<br />
Predicted: 80.0<br />
<ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: 79.6</span></span></li></ul>
=========<br /><br />
<ul><li>Change from Previous Month: <span style="background-color: white;"><b>+0.76% (+0.6 point)</b></span><br /><span style="background-color: cyan;"><b><br /></b></span></li></ul>
<ul><li>Change from 12 Months Previous: <span style="background-color: white;"><b>+19.0% (+12.7 points)</b></span></li></ul>
<br />
=========<br />
<br />
<ul><li>Final <b>ICS </b>Reading for January 2024: <b>79.0<br /><br />
</b></li><li>Final <b>ICS </b>Reading for February 2023: <b>66.9</b></li></ul>
<br />
<b>========= </b><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
</div>
<br />
</div><div style="text-align: center;"><u><b>From Today's Report:</b></u><br /></div><div>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">"...Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged from January, rising 0.6 index point this month and solidifying the large gains from the past two months. The fact that sentiment lost no ground this month suggests that <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/consumers" target="_blank">consumers</a> continue to feel more assured about the economy, confirming the considerable improvements in December and January across various aspects of the economy.<br /> <br />Consumers continued to express confidence that the slowdown in inflation and strength in labor markets would continue. Five-year expectations for business conditions rose 5% to its highest reading since December 2020. Sentiment is currently about 30% above November 2023 and about 6% below its historical average since monthly data collection began in 1978.<br /><br />Year-ahead inflation inched up from 2.9 in January to 3.0% in February. For the second consecutive month, short-run </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"> expectations have fallen within the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations remained at 2.9% for the third straight month, staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 28 of the last 31 months. Long-run inflation expectations were elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">.."</span><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div></div></blockquote><div style="text-align: left;"> =========<p></p><p>
<b><br />
</b> <b>The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:</b><br />
<br />
</p><ol><li>"We are interested in how people are getting along financially these
days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are
better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"<br />
<br />
</li><li>"Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your
family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or
just about the same as now?"<br />
<br />
</li><li>"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do
you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times
financially, or bad times, or what?"<br />
<br />
</li><li>"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the
country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five
years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/unemployment" target="_blank">unemployment</a> or depression, or what?"<br />
<br />
</li><li>"About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture,
a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally
speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major
household items?"<br />
</li></ol>
=========<br />
<br />
<ul><li><a href="http://fedprimerate.com/docs/Consumer-Sentiment/Index-of-Consumer-Sentiment-Five-Survey-Questions.pdf" target="_blank">Click here</a> for more on <a href="http://fedprimerate.com/docs/Consumer-Sentiment/Index-of-Consumer-Sentiment-Five-Survey-Questions.pdf" target="_blank">how the ICS is calculated</a>.</li></ul>
<br />
=========<br />
<br />
The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any
number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who
were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as
those polled back in 1966.<br />
<br />
The ICS is similar to the <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/consumer_confidence" target="_blank">Consumer Confidence Index</a> in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.<br />
<br />
=========<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
<br />
=========<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<ul><li><a href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/" target="_blank">Click here to view the full University of Michigan report</a>.</li></ul><p>
<br />
=========<br />
</p></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-65139874903150118412024-02-17T06:39:00.000-05:002024-02-17T06:39:26.146-05:00Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2024The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2024 was <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm" target="_blank">released</a> this morning:<br /><br />
Previous Month: -0.1% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual:</span> <b>+0.3% </b></span><br />
<b><br />
</b> <b>Change from 12 months previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;">+0.9%</span></b><br />
<br />
=============<br />
<br />
Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed: <br />
<br />Previous Month: +0.2%<br /><b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.6%</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<b>Change from 12 months previous: </b><b> <span style="background-color: cyan;">+2.6%</span></b><br />
<br />
=============<br />
<br />
The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month
change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services,
for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final
demand.<br />
<br />
<b>Final Demand</b> = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.<br />
<br />
The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
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<ul><li> <a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Inflation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Producer-Price-Index-PPI-FD-JANUARY-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a>.</li></ul><p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-41569262148995930922024-02-16T14:14:00.000-05:002024-02-16T14:14:08.791-05:00U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for January 2024The <a href="https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/?programCode=MARTS&startYear=2021&endYear=2023&categories[]=44X72&dataType=SM&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&notAdjusted=1&errorData=0#line057" target="_blank">Commerce Department</a> this morning <a href="http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf" target="_blank">released</a> advance estimates of <b>U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales</b> for <a href="https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html" target="_blank">January 2024</a>:
<br /><br />
Previous Month: +0.4%<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>
<b>Actual: </b><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">-0.83%(-$5,889,000)</span></span></li></ul>
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted
change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and
non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage
services.<br />
<br />
================= <br />
<br />
<ul><li>Estimated Retail Sales During January 2024: <span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>$</b></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>700,291,000,000</b></span></li></ul>
<ul><li><b>Change From A Year Ago: <span style="background-color: cyan;">+0.65% (+$4,515,000,000)</span></b></li></ul>
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=================<br /><br />
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<ul><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Retail-Sales/Fed-Prime-Rate--Retail-Sales--JANUARY-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Commerce Department report</a>.<br />
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<div class="blogger-labels">================= </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-63417757094091790042024-02-15T12:17:00.000-05:002024-02-15T12:17:06.880-05:00Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2024The Labor Department's <i>Bureau of Labor Statistics</i> this morning released its <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm" target="_blank">report</a> on<b> U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes</b> for January 2024:<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">===============</span> <br />
<br />
<u><span style="font-weight: bold;">Import Prices</span></u><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span>Previous Reading: -0.7%<span><span> (revised)</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />
</span>
</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>Actual: +0.8% </b></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
<b>Change From 12 Months Previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;">-1.3%</span></b><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />
</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">===============</span><br />
<br />
<u><span style="font-weight: bold;">Export Prices</span></u><br />
Previous Reading: -0.7% <span><span> (revised)</span></span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />
</span>
</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.8</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>%</b></span></b></span><br />
<br />
<b>Change From 12 Months </b><b><b>Previous:</b> <span style="background-color: cyan;">-2.4%</span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">===============</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span> <br />
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.</li><li>Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.</li></ul><p style="text-align: left;">
<br />
Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of <a href="https://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a> in
the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted"
figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the
true or real figure.<br />
<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">=================</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh639MwhWN0Osj7LOJekm-uOC0dCNDuWnUO6RMYyyPCTj7m8AecyshcEOJulD8CfO9U4npldrlSSL5SlDtzIADa6w9M0zyqU09Cu6eeyTnrMzxi6_bXVITFLsafmbv2sUcwgW-Y3Jr8Al01INqqYjc4se0DK8rN8-4s7Wn3D4VXHwyWyjr0aYdJpA/s818/Fed-Prime-Rate-CHART--Inflation--IMPORT--Price-Index--12-Month-Percent-Changes---JANUARY---2024---UPDATE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Import Price Index - January 2024 Update" border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="818" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh639MwhWN0Osj7LOJekm-uOC0dCNDuWnUO6RMYyyPCTj7m8AecyshcEOJulD8CfO9U4npldrlSSL5SlDtzIADa6w9M0zyqU09Cu6eeyTnrMzxi6_bXVITFLsafmbv2sUcwgW-Y3Jr8Al01INqqYjc4se0DK8rN8-4s7Wn3D4VXHwyWyjr0aYdJpA/w400-h188/Fed-Prime-Rate-CHART--Inflation--IMPORT--Price-Index--12-Month-Percent-Changes---JANUARY---2024---UPDATE.jpg" title="CHART: Import Price Index - January 2024 Update" width="400" /></a></p><div style="text-align: center;">CHART: Import Price Index<br /> January 2024 Update</div><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><span style="font-weight: bold;">=</span><span style="font-weight: bold;">================</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"> <br /></span><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2HQwcrLlG1niGEXrO5RR6uOdgQeWhO_lD8nCsZDbOY-QcSfB3p9CD630UR_m1IvwH9nc4oq4hepMRo5PxyGZOG6_2ymNgqXHXTl9ffbH2mquEOn2riv7hQX8mr9U3Y1ELkMJchVwstw6GmQrnsIodsNxH0IF9EiCMwur2Z91Ug5afQn2T6vRCbA/s820/Fed-Prime-Rate-CHART--Inflation--EXPORT--Price-Index--12-Month-Percent-Changes-----JANUARY---2024---UPDATE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Export Price Index - January 2024 Update" border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="820" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2HQwcrLlG1niGEXrO5RR6uOdgQeWhO_lD8nCsZDbOY-QcSfB3p9CD630UR_m1IvwH9nc4oq4hepMRo5PxyGZOG6_2ymNgqXHXTl9ffbH2mquEOn2riv7hQX8mr9U3Y1ELkMJchVwstw6GmQrnsIodsNxH0IF9EiCMwur2Z91Ug5afQn2T6vRCbA/w400-h180/Fed-Prime-Rate-CHART--Inflation--EXPORT--Price-Index--12-Month-Percent-Changes-----JANUARY---2024---UPDATE.jpg" title="CHART: Export Price Index - January 2024 Update" width="400" /></a></div><div><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: center;">CHART: Export Price Index<br /> January 2024 Update<br /></div><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />===</span><span style="font-weight: bold;">============</span><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Inflation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Import-and-Export-Prices-JANUARY-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report.</a></li></ul><p style="text-align: left;">
<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">===============</span></p><p class="blogger-labels" style="text-align: left;"></p></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-34390249765512825052024-02-13T14:59:00.001-05:002024-03-12T16:31:18.120-04:00Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2024Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's <i>Bureau of Labor Statistics</i> <a href="http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#news" target="_blank">released</a> the <b>Consumer Price Index (CPI)</b> for January 2024:<p>
<br />
=========================================</p><p>CPI During January 2024: <b>308.417</b></p><p>=========================================</p><p><b><u>Consumer Price Index, Headline<br /></u></b><br />
Predicted: +0.3%<br />
<b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.545% (+1.671 points)</span></b><br />
<br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b><b>Change From 12 Months Ago</b>: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+3.09% (+9.247 points)<br /></span></span></b></li></ul><p>
<br />
=========================================</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><b><u>Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)</u></b><br /><br />
Predicted: +0.3%<br />
<b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.55% (+1.716 point)</span></b><br />
<br />
</p><b style="font-weight: bold;">Change From 12 Months Ago</b><b>: </b><span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>+3.86% (+11.661 points)</b></span></span><p><br />=========================================<br />
<br />
The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (<b>not</b> seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a <span style="font-weight: bold;">very</span> important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
<br />
General categories that constitute the CPI are:<br />
<br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Healthcare </li><li>Housing </li><li>Clothing </li><li>Communications </li><li>Education </li><li>Transportation </li><li>Food and Beverages </li><li>Recreation </li><li>Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)</li></ul><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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</div><div><p>========================================</p><p>CPI During January 2023: <b>299.170</b></p><p>========================================</p><p style="text-align: center;"></p></div><div style="text-align: left;"> <br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNOMQlLCgolUwIkn5HFGUXQExtNgPaMQhyJ_KyOG4vdZ9-NndQeKB6qCYfSg4HnHcA2Su-94IpjS298UNkCVUr3hjJeEoe14ZoCrRMVanMBQvx5dv3_duZknDjJWACLgtj5YlyVFVXmagtIjBQfNhYPUZOFExeP70L4kkUUejuFkGrwmKg39xnHA/s999/CHART--Consumer-Price-Index--12-Month-Percentage-Change--JANUARY--2024-UPDATE---POST.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="999" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNOMQlLCgolUwIkn5HFGUXQExtNgPaMQhyJ_KyOG4vdZ9-NndQeKB6qCYfSg4HnHcA2Su-94IpjS298UNkCVUr3hjJeEoe14ZoCrRMVanMBQvx5dv3_duZknDjJWACLgtj5YlyVFVXmagtIjBQfNhYPUZOFExeP70L4kkUUejuFkGrwmKg39xnHA/s320/CHART--Consumer-Price-Index--12-Month-Percentage-Change--JANUARY--2024-UPDATE---POST.jpg" width="320" /></a></div> CHART: Consumer Price Index<br /> 12-Month Percentage Change<br />January 2024 Update<br /></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"></div></div><div><p></p><p>========================================</p><p> <br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/CPI/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Consumer-Price-Index-CPI--January-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a>.<br />
</li></ul><p style="text-align: left;">
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=========================================</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p></div><div></div><p></p><p>
</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-49703922006810872792024-02-08T20:25:00.000-05:002024-02-08T20:25:09.514-05:00New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 3, 2024<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/prime-rate-website-sitemap.htm" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" target="_blank"><img alt="Jobless Claims" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8D9w8ZNvon-_nKGPazhPq1BXN88pjOu4FWInHC-7KzYwP6KuySZ7t6WzlPxeVeIFFSg0N3xgfHe2GKaUpiN-_33YUW7zUe2FPNAVndq9QPFM-aygVr1A5a9rGPyVKSizYXm_4g/s400/Fed-Prime-Rate-Jobless-2.jpg" title="Jobless Claims" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jobless Claims</td></tr>
</tbody></table><p>
<br />
Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly <a href="http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> on <b>New Jobless Insurance Claims</b> for the week that ended on February 3, 2024:<br />
<br />
====================<br /><br />Predicted: 220,000<br />
<br />
</p><ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: 218,000</span></span></li></ul>
====================<br />
<br />
The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims
for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted"
figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the
true or real figure.<br />
<br />
<ul><li>Previous Week (revised): 227,000</li></ul>
<ul><li><b>4-Week Moving Average: <span style="background-color: cyan;">212,250 </span></b></li></ul><p>====================<br /><br /></p><p></p><p></p><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<ul><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Jobless-Claims/Fed-Prime-Rate--Jobs--Unemployment-Insurance-Weekly-Claims--FEBRUARY-03-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a></li></ul><p>
</p><p></p><p></p><p><br />
====================</p></div><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-26315374964514256272024-02-03T04:24:00.075-05:002024-02-06T01:10:07.210-05:00Employment Situation Report for January 2024Employment Situation Report for January 2024 was <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf" target="_blank">released</a> by The Department of Labor's <i>Bureau of Labor Statistics</i> this morning:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Nonfarm Payrolls</span> </span><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="font-size: xx-small;">(month-to-month change)</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: black;">Actual:</span> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">+353,000</span></span></span></span><br /><div>Previous Month (Revised): 333,000<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span>One Year Previous: 482,000<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: black;">Actual:</span> 3.7</span><span><span style="font-weight: bold;">%</span></span></span></span><br />
Previous Month: 3.7%<br />
12 Months Previous: 3.4%<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">U-6 Unemployment Rate<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow; color: red; font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: black;">Actual:</span> 7.2</span><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">%</span></span></span><br />
Previous Month: 7.1%<br />
12 Months Previous: 6.7%<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Hourly Earnings</span> (month-to-month change)<br />
Predicted: +0.4% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">+0.553% (+$0.19)</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Hourly Earnings </span>(year-on-year change)<br />
Predicted: +4.3%<br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">+4.48</span></span></span><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">% (+$1.48)</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Weekly Earnings</span></span> (month-to-month change)<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: <span style="color: red;">-</span></span></span><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">0.03% (-$0.39)</span></span></span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Weekly Earnings</span> (year-on-year change)<br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">+2.97%</span></span></span><span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> (+$33.94)</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<b>Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate</b>: <span style="color: red;"><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>62.5%</b></span></span><br />
Previous Month: 62.5%<br />
12 Months Previous: 62.4%<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Average Workweek</span><br />
Predicted: 34.4 hours<br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: </span><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">34.1 hours</span></span></span><br />
<br />
Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close
attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers
penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the
overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the
economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money
being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
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<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span></span> = The <span style="font-weight: bold;">U-6 Unemployment Rate </span>is defined as:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor
force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent
of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the
labor force."</blockquote>
<br />
===================<br />
<br />
<ul><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Employment-Situation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Jobs-Employment-Situation-JANUARY-2024.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.</a></li></ul><p>
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=================== </p></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-55255473700746699602024-01-26T17:02:00.000-05:002024-01-26T17:02:17.239-05:00PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2023The Commerce Department's <i>Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)</i> <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm" target="_blank">released</a> its report on <b>The PCE Price Index,</b><b> Consumer Spending </b>and<b> Personal Income</b> for December 2023:<br />
<br />
============= <br />
<br />
<b><u><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">Consumer Spending</span></u> </b>(Personal Consumption Expenditures)<br />
<br />Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%
<ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span></span><b>Actual:</b><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> +0.7%</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></li></ul>
<ul><li><b>Actual:</b> <span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: white;">(</span></span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">2017 Chained<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span> Dollars): <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">+0.5%</span></span></span></span></span></span></li></ul>
============= <br />
<br />
<u><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Personal Income</span></span></u><br />
<br />
Previous Reading: +0.4% (unrevised):
<ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: +0.3%</span></span></li></ul>
============= <br />
<br />
<ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: <span style="background-color: #01ffff;">+0.3%</span></span> </li></ul>
<ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Disposable Personal Income</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">(2017 Chained<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span> Dollars)</span></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">:</span> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: #01ffff;">+0.1%</span></span> </li></ul>
<br />
============= <br />
<br />
The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in
Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal
Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.<br />
<br />
============= <br />
<div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div>
<br />
<b>Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index</b><br />
Previous Reading: -0.1% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual:</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> +0.2% </span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
<ul><li><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>Change from 12 months previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+2.6%</span></span></b></span></li></ul>
=====================<br />
<br />
<b>Core PCE Price Index</b><br />
( = <i>PCE Price Index</i> minus food and energy)<br />
Previous Reading: +0.1% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: +0.2</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">% </span></span><br />
<br />
<ul><li><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>Change from 12 months </b></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>previous</b></span>: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+2.9%</span></span></b></span></li></ul>
=====================<br />
<br />
The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change
in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption. The <b>PCE Price Index </b>is different from the <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/cpi" target="_blank">Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a>
in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with
domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited <i>fixed basket </i>of goods and services.<br />
<br />
The broad nature of the <b>PCE Price Index </b>is key to why it is the <a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/How-The-Federal-Reserve-Measures-Inflation.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>'s preferred measure of <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a>. The Federal Open Market Committee (<a href="https://primerate.fedprimerate.com/2022/06/usa-banks-banking-fed-fomc-meeting-schedule-2023.html" target="_blank">FOMC</a>) pays very close attention to it. <br />
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===================== <br />
<br />
The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.<br />
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<ul><li> <a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Inflation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Personal-Income--Consumer-Spending--Core-PCE-Price-Index--DECEMBER--2023.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)</a>.<br />
</li></ul><p>
===================== <br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a target="_blank" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDTvZlSDmVxgLHYjfbRrhXRRUetlLPlc9Mrd3wjxQM1eT4zvT1vyFOBSJYxGMnOSkunJcMEIvvBsPj1Ki6qY6IrVOBODAbEPeyegOYk9PaaAMwCsnPjV0DK5jIOr_omKgqWol_rflgVwYDaGqXhixBLODnlmMoR03AZ0nHMWCbWggSKInZuWYjLA/s960/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Disposable-Personal-Income--Outlays--Savings--DECEMBER--2023--UPDATE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - December 2023 Update" border="0" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="960" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDTvZlSDmVxgLHYjfbRrhXRRUetlLPlc9Mrd3wjxQM1eT4zvT1vyFOBSJYxGMnOSkunJcMEIvvBsPj1Ki6qY6IrVOBODAbEPeyegOYk9PaaAMwCsnPjV0DK5jIOr_omKgqWol_rflgVwYDaGqXhixBLODnlmMoR03AZ0nHMWCbWggSKInZuWYjLA/w400-h204/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Disposable-Personal-Income--Outlays--Savings--DECEMBER--2023--UPDATE.jpg" title="CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - December 2023 Update" width="400" /></a></div><br />CHART: Disposable Personal Income,<br /> Outlays + Savings - December 2023 Update<br /></div><div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"> ===================== <br />
<br />
</p><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span></span></span> = <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chained_dollars" target="_blank">Chained dollars</a> is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a>
over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years.
The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996.
Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as
the base year.</blockquote></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com06JVJ+F8 Green Bay, PE, Canada46.2436944 -63.36914118.735416904579083 -98.525391 73.751971895420922 -28.212891tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-48752662201350056862024-01-20T11:37:00.000-05:002024-01-20T11:37:48.152-05:00U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for December 2023 The <a href="https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/?programCode=MARTS&startYear=2021&endYear=2023&categories[]=44X72&dataType=SM&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&notAdjusted=1&errorData=0#line057" target="_blank">Commerce Department</a> this morning <a href="http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf" target="_blank">released</a> advance estimates of <b>U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales</b> for <a href="https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html" target="_blank">December 2023</a>:
<br /><br />
Previous Month+0.3%<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>
<b>Actual: </b><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">+0.554%(+$3,909,000)</span></span></li></ul>
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted
change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and
non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage
services.<br />
<br />
================= <br />
<br />
<ul><li>Estimated Retail Sales During December 2023: <span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>$709,890</b></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>,000,000</b></span></li></ul>
<ul><li><b>Change From 12 Months Previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;">+5.59% (+$37,554,000,000)</span></b></li></ul>
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<ul><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Retail-Sales/Fed-Prime-Rate--Retail-Sales--DECEMBER-2023.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Commerce Department report</a>.<br />
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<div class="blogger-labels">================= </div><div class="blogger-labels"> </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-77444144776750715612024-01-12T16:44:00.058-05:002024-01-26T20:29:27.588-05:00Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023<p>Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's <i>Bureau of Labor Statistics</i> <a href="http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#news" target="_blank">released</a> the <b>Consumer Price Index (CPI)</b> for December 2023:</p><p>
<br />
=========================================</p><p>CPI During December 2023: <b>306.746</b></p><p>=========================================</p><p><b><u>Consumer Price Index, Headline<br /></u></b><br />
Predicted: +0.2%<br />
<b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: -0.1% (-0.305 point)</span></b><br />
<br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b><b>Change From 12 Months Ago</b>: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+3.352% (+9.949 points)<br /></span></span></b></li></ul><p>
<br />
=========================================</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><b><u>Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)</u></b><br /><br />
Predicted: +0.2%<br />
<b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.1% (+0.301 point)</span></b><br />
<br />
</p><b style="font-weight: bold;">Change From 12 Months Ago</b><b>: </b><span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>+3.93% (+11.794 points)</b></span></span><p><br />=========================================<br />
<br />
The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (<b>not</b> seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a <span style="font-weight: bold;">very</span> important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
<br />
General categories that constitute the CPI are:<br />
<br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Healthcare </li><li>Housing </li><li>Clothing </li><li>Communications </li><li>Education </li><li>Transportation </li><li>Food and Beverages </li><li>Recreation </li><li>Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)</li></ul><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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</div><div><p>========================================</p><p>CPI During December 2022: <b>296.797</b></p><p>========================================</p><p style="text-align: center;"></p></div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguepnRD-Co-OpadYFaMxsNnmsbcHAXumBcK_I6Br9WVw1zPYs3UjgL1FrNVIkWm3lPiXidnyunYS0BpDb0qIK8zinykzcC0_qBmn6rXUAeQNFlVFFvR6hHbM-RRyjIHFHINDpjQY5-U1D77UZQZBarCTo5aHcqr4gANco6zzWTq3piV_iYmS-CpA/s999/CHART--Consumer-Price-Index--12-Month-Percentage-Change--DECEMBER--2023-UPDATE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change December - 2023 Update" border="0" data-original-height="672" data-original-width="999" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguepnRD-Co-OpadYFaMxsNnmsbcHAXumBcK_I6Br9WVw1zPYs3UjgL1FrNVIkWm3lPiXidnyunYS0BpDb0qIK8zinykzcC0_qBmn6rXUAeQNFlVFFvR6hHbM-RRyjIHFHINDpjQY5-U1D77UZQZBarCTo5aHcqr4gANco6zzWTq3piV_iYmS-CpA/w400-h269/CHART--Consumer-Price-Index--12-Month-Percentage-Change--DECEMBER--2023-UPDATE.jpg" title="CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change December - 2023 Update" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>CHART: Consumer Price Index<br /> 12-Month Percentage Change<br />December 2023 Update<br /></div></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"></div></div><div><p></p><p>========================================</p><p> <br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/CPI/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Consumer-Price-Index-CPI--December-2023.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a>.<br />
</li></ul><p style="text-align: left;">
<br />
=========================================</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p></div><div></div><p></p><p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-76516699125991705722023-12-22T10:56:00.059-05:002024-01-26T16:44:56.599-05:00PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2023The Commerce Department's <i>Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)</i> <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm" target="_blank">released</a> its report on <b>The PCE Price Index,</b><b> Consumer Spending </b>and<b> Personal Income</b> for November 2023:<br />
<br />
============= <br />
<br />
<b><u><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">Consumer Spending</span></u> </b>(Personal Consumption Expenditures)<br />
<br />Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.1%
<ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span></span><b>Actual:</b><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> +0.2%</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></li></ul>
<ul><li><b>Actual:</b> <span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: white;">(</span></span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">2017 Chained<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span> Dollars): <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">+0.3%</span></span></span></span></span></span></li></ul>
============= <br />
<br />
<u><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Personal Income</span></span></u><br />
<br />
Previous Reading: +0.3% (revised):
<ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: +0.4%</span></span></li></ul>
============= <br />
<br />
<ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: <span style="background-color: #01ffff;">+0.4%</span></span> </li></ul>
<ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Disposable Personal Income</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">(2017 Chained<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span> Dollars)</span></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">:</span> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: #01ffff;">+0.4%</span></span> </li></ul>
<br />
============= <br />
<br />
The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in
Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal
Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.<br />
<br />
============= <br />
<div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div>
<br />
<b>Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index</b><br />
Previous Reading: FLAT <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual:</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> -0.1% </span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
<ul><li><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>Change from 12 months previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+2.6%</span></span></b></span></li></ul>
=====================<br />
<br />
<b>Core PCE Price Index</b><br />
( = <i>PCE Price Index</i> minus food and energy)<br />
Previous Reading: +0.1% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: +0.1</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">% </span></span><br />
<br />
<ul><li><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>Change from 12 months </b></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>previous</b></span>: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+3.2%</span></span></b></span></li></ul>
=====================<br />
<br />
The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change
in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption. The <b>PCE Price Index </b>is different from the <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/cpi" target="_blank">Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a>
in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with
domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited <i>fixed basket </i>of goods and services.<br />
<br />
The broad nature of the <b>PCE Price Index </b>is key to why it is the <a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/How-The-Federal-Reserve-Measures-Inflation.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>'s preferred measure of <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a>. The Federal Open Market Committee (<a href="https://primerate.fedprimerate.com/2022/06/usa-banks-banking-fed-fomc-meeting-schedule-2023.html" target="_blank">FOMC</a>) pays very close attention to it. <br />
<br />
===================== <br />
<br />
The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.<br />
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=====================<br />
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<ul><li> <a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Inflation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Personal-Income--Consumer-Spending--Core-PCE-Price-Index--NOVEMBER--2023.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)</a>.<br />
</li></ul><p>
===================== <br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="post-body" style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFx-cq-UplWoH2TwdjFB7Z5a9tFKFBHHY6lSr_S_jYb4KgT5DWm3d5X2XMqFqwkt_s9Q6avywZiJjQoom4j2HWZRbnvvgCqbcCcrwauBNnTH7XOxmiQDfD2Tql8qNzC48Geo1llJOnUTuYSxQjUwg9xIGWdjXBUMXokuUdi_mhzFPqS_C6o3gF7A/s868/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Disposable-Personal-Income--Outlays--Savings--NOVEMBER--2023--UPDATE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - November 2023 Update" border="0" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="868" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFx-cq-UplWoH2TwdjFB7Z5a9tFKFBHHY6lSr_S_jYb4KgT5DWm3d5X2XMqFqwkt_s9Q6avywZiJjQoom4j2HWZRbnvvgCqbcCcrwauBNnTH7XOxmiQDfD2Tql8qNzC48Geo1llJOnUTuYSxQjUwg9xIGWdjXBUMXokuUdi_mhzFPqS_C6o3gF7A/w400-h205/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Disposable-Personal-Income--Outlays--Savings--NOVEMBER--2023--UPDATE.jpg" title="CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - November 2023 Update" width="400" /></a></div></div><div style="text-align: center;">CHART: Disposable Personal Income,<br /> Outlays + Savings - November 2023 Update<br /></div><div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"> ===================== <br />
<br />
</p><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span></span></span> = <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chained_dollars" target="_blank">Chained dollars</a> is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a>
over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years.
The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996.
Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as
the base year.</blockquote></div><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" style="width: 100%;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" valign="middle"></td></tr></tbody></table></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-16038004929757649772023-12-01T17:04:00.032-05:002023-12-04T17:25:30.879-05:00PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for October 2023The Commerce Department's <i>Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)</i> <a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm" target="_blank">released</a> its report on <b>The PCE Price Index,</b><b> Consumer Spending </b>and<b> Personal Income</b> for October 2023:<br />
<br />
============= <br />
<br />
<b><u><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif">Consumer Spending</span></u> </b>(Personal Consumption Expenditures)<br />
<br />Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%
<ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span></span><b>Actual:</b><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> +0.2%</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></li></ul>
<ul><li><b>Actual:</b> <span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: white;">(</span></span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">2012 Chained<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span> Dollars): <span style="background-color: #fcff01;">+0.2%</span></span></span></span></span></span></li></ul>
============= <br />
<br />
<u><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Personal Income</span></span></u><br />
<br />
Previous Reading: +0.4% (revised):
<ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: +0.2%</span></span></li></ul>
============= <br />
<br />
<ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: <span style="background-color: #01ffff;">+0.3%</span></span> </li></ul>
<ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Disposable Personal Income</span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> <span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">(2012 Chained<span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span> Dollars)</span></span><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">:</span> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="background-color: #01ffff;">+0.3%</span></span> </li></ul>
<br />
============= <br />
<br />
The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in
Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal
Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.<br />
<br />
============= <br />
<div style="text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"></div>
<br />
<b>Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index</b><br />
Previous Reading: +0.4% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual:</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> FLAT </span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br />
<ul><li><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>Change from 12 months previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+3.0%</span></span></b></span></li></ul>
=====================<br />
<br />
<b>Core PCE Price Index</b><br />
( = <i>PCE Price Index</i> minus food and energy)<br />
Previous Reading: +0.3% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: +0.2</span></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">% </span></span><br />
<br />
<ul><li><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>Change from 12 months </b></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><b>previous</b></span>: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+3.5%</span></span></b></span></li></ul>
=====================<br />
<br />
The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change
in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption. The <b>PCE Price Index </b>is different from the <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/cpi" target="_blank">Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a>
in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with
domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited <i>fixed basket </i>of goods and services.<br />
<br />
The broad nature of the <b>PCE Price Index </b>is key to why it is the <a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/How-The-Federal-Reserve-Measures-Inflation.htm" target="_blank">Federal Reserve</a>'s preferred measure of <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a>. The Federal Open Market Committee (<a href="https://primerate.fedprimerate.com/2022/06/usa-banks-banking-fed-fomc-meeting-schedule-2023.html" target="_blank">FOMC</a>) pays very close attention to it. <br />
<br />
===================== <br />
<br />
The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.<br />
<br />
<br /><div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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=====================<br />
<br />
<ul><li> <a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Inflation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Personal-Income--Consumer-Spending--Core-PCE-Price-Index--OCTOBER--2023.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)</a>.<br />
</li></ul><p>
===================== <br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4Sj2R0OkF0gfHA4WyPZL19w5YeV8CqH0-gOrcrBi0A1c5B16vMyVcolBJILzYiLo2ZeSp9T70M_eL429ow0Q1p55deOzOaShJhnAIAdMUNMpq-Gy5hI7yDW91PkW8fUXVrZKtYvW7DPxnZOs67czqIzvQhsQjbcjc3zNIsOv0D_4sZHraylZK9A/s952/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Disposable-Personal-Income--Outlays--Savings--OCTOBER--2023--UPDATE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - October 2023 Update" border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="952" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4Sj2R0OkF0gfHA4WyPZL19w5YeV8CqH0-gOrcrBi0A1c5B16vMyVcolBJILzYiLo2ZeSp9T70M_eL429ow0Q1p55deOzOaShJhnAIAdMUNMpq-Gy5hI7yDW91PkW8fUXVrZKtYvW7DPxnZOs67czqIzvQhsQjbcjc3zNIsOv0D_4sZHraylZK9A/w400-h204/Fed-Prime-Rate--CHART--Disposable-Personal-Income--Outlays--Savings--OCTOBER--2023--UPDATE.jpg" title="CHART: Disposable Personal Income, Outlays + Savings - October 2023 Update" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;">CHART: Disposable Personal Income,<br /> Outlays + Savings - October 2023 Update<br /></div><div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"> ===================== <br />
<br />
</p><blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">*</span></span></span> = <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chained_dollars" target="_blank">Chained dollars</a> is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for <a href="http://economy.fedprimerate.com/search/label/inflation" target="_blank">inflation</a>
over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years.
The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996.
Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as
the base year.</blockquote></div><p></p>
<div style="clear: both; padding-bottom: 0.25em;"><br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-47751392492533753592023-11-17T08:20:00.015-05:002023-11-20T09:03:22.906-05:00Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2023<p>The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2023 was <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm" target="_blank">released</a> this morning:<br /><br />
Previous Month (revised): +0.4% <br />
<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual:</span> <b>-0.5% </b></span><br />
<b><br />
</b> <b>Change from 12 months previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;">+1.3%</span></b><br />
<br />
=============<br />
<br />
Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed: <br />
<br />Previous Month (revised): +0.3%<br /><b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.1%</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<b>Change from 12 months previous: </b><b> <span style="background-color: cyan;">+2.9%</span></b><br />
<br />
=============<br />
<br />
The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month
change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services,
for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final
demand.<br />
<br />
<b>Final Demand</b> = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.<br />
<br />
The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
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<ul><li> <a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Inflation/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Producer-Price-Index-PPI-FD-OCTOBER-2023.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a>.</li></ul><p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-90564449306458288142023-11-17T07:06:00.012-05:002023-11-18T18:58:39.601-05:00New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 11, 2023<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.fedprimerate.com/prime-rate-website-sitemap.htm" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" target="_blank"><img alt="Jobless Claims" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8D9w8ZNvon-_nKGPazhPq1BXN88pjOu4FWInHC-7KzYwP6KuySZ7t6WzlPxeVeIFFSg0N3xgfHe2GKaUpiN-_33YUW7zUe2FPNAVndq9QPFM-aygVr1A5a9rGPyVKSizYXm_4g/s400/Fed-Prime-Rate-Jobless-2.jpg" title="Jobless Claims" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jobless Claims</td></tr>
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Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly <a href="http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> on <b>New Jobless Insurance Claims</b> for the week that ended on November 11, 2023:<br />
<br />
====================<br /><br />Predicted: 220,000<br />
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</p><ul><li><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Actual: 231,000</span></span></li></ul>
====================<br />
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims
for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted"
figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the
true or real figure.<br />
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<ul><li>Previous Week (revised): 218,000</li></ul>
<ul><li><b>4-Week Moving Average: <span style="background-color: cyan;">220,250 </span></b></li></ul><p>====================<br /><br /></p><p></p><div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<ul><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Jobless-Claims/Fed-Prime-Rate--Jobs--Unemployment-Insurance-Weekly-Claims--NOVEMBER-11-2023.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a></li></ul><p>
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====================</p><p></p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-24256488350496049262023-11-17T06:27:00.000-05:002023-11-17T06:27:18.572-05:00U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for October 2023The <a href="https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/?programCode=MARTS&startYear=2021&endYear=2023&categories[]=44X72&dataType=SM&geoLevel=US&adjusted=1&notAdjusted=1&errorData=0#line057" target="_blank">Commerce Department</a> this morning <a href="http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf" target="_blank">released</a> advance estimates of <b>U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales</b> for <a href="https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html" target="_blank">October 2023</a>:
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Predicted: -0.2%<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>
<b>Actual: </b><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"> </span><span style="font-weight: bold;">-0.106%(-$747,000)</span></span></li></ul>
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The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted
change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and
non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage
services.<br />
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================= <br />
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<ul><li>Estimated Retail Sales During October 2023: <span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>$704,954</b></span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><b>,000,000</b></span></li></ul>
<ul><li><b>Change From 12 Months Previous: <span style="background-color: cyan;">+2.48% (+$17,083,000,000)</span></b></li></ul>
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<ul><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/Retail-Sales/Fed-Prime-Rate--Retail-Sales--OCTOBER-2023.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Commerce Department report</a>.<br />
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<div class="blogger-labels">================= </div><div class="blogger-labels"> </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0United States37.09024 -95.7128918.780006163821156 -130.869141 65.400473836178847 -60.556641tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19230828.post-1622587765161892222023-11-15T09:19:00.001-05:002023-11-15T09:19:34.570-05:00Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2023Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's <i>Bureau of Labor Statistics</i> <a href="http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#news" target="_blank">released</a> the <b>Consumer Price Index (CPI)</b> for October 2023:<br /><p>
<br />
=========================================</p><p>CPI During October 2023: <b>307.671</b></p><p>=========================================</p><p><b><u>Consumer Price Index, Headline<br /></u></b><br />
Predicted: +0.3%<br />
<b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: -0.038% (-0.118 points)</span></b><br />
<br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b><b>Change From 12 Months Ago</b>: <span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;">+3.241% (+9.659 points)<br /></span></span></b></li></ul><p>
<br />
=========================================</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><b><u>Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)</u></b><br /><br />
Predicted: +0.3%<br />
<b><span style="background-color: yellow;">Actual: +0.181% (+0.563 point)</span></b><br />
<br />
</p><b style="font-weight: bold;">Change From 12 Months Ago</b><b>: </b><span style="background-color: cyan;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>+4.031% (+12.065 points)</b></span></span><p><br />=========================================<br />
<br />
The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (<b>not</b> seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a <span style="font-weight: bold;">very</span> important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.<br />
<br />
The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.<br />
<br />
General categories that constitute the CPI are:<br />
<br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Healthcare </li><li>Housing </li><li>Clothing </li><li>Communications </li><li>Education </li><li>Transportation </li><li>Food and Beverages </li><li>Recreation </li><li>Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)</li></ul><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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</div><div><p>========================================</p><p>CPI During September 2022: <b>298.012</b></p><p>========================================</p><p style="text-align: center;"></p></div><div style="text-align: left;"> <br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2NUOg3FdbkaDw2idm6TsGVRUmgXWA50IGxIonPCnuW5xOvIKSRqSfpmgKDkgwNooOU4FA__chTgg4s67tHlvBBjNGFdus618P386w503BOfBtiARXtNrJfIqBH-W-yS74L2hED-6W797npBV4SbMBM6qxwGC467RGiYpG0VOlT424t8bQoxeZTw/s999/CHART--Consumer-Price-Index--12-Month-Percentage-Change--OCTOBER--2023-UPDATE__POST.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - October 2023 Update" border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="999" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2NUOg3FdbkaDw2idm6TsGVRUmgXWA50IGxIonPCnuW5xOvIKSRqSfpmgKDkgwNooOU4FA__chTgg4s67tHlvBBjNGFdus618P386w503BOfBtiARXtNrJfIqBH-W-yS74L2hED-6W797npBV4SbMBM6qxwGC467RGiYpG0VOlT424t8bQoxeZTw/w400-h270/CHART--Consumer-Price-Index--12-Month-Percentage-Change--OCTOBER--2023-UPDATE__POST.jpg" title="CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - October 2023 Update" width="400" /></a></div><br />CHART: Consumer Price Index<br /> 12-Month Percentage Change<br />October 2023 Update<br /></div></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"></div></div><div><p></p><p>========================================</p><p> <br />
</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://fedprimerate.com/docs/CPI/Fed-Prime-Rate--Inflation--Consumer-Price-Index-CPI--October-2023.pdf" target="_blank">Click here to view the full Labor Department report</a>.<br />
</li></ul><p style="text-align: left;">
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=========================================</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p></div><div></div><p></p><p>
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