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Index for June 2025: 98.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)
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Predicted: -0.3%
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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JUNE 2025 UPDATE
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Index for June 2025: 98.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)
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Predicted: -0.3%
- Actual: -0.3% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
- Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.98% (-4.1 points)
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- LEI for May 2025: 99.1
- LEI for April 2025: 99.1
- LEI for March 2025: 100.5
- LEI for February 2025: 101.2
- LEI for January 2025: 101.4
- LEI for December 2024: 101.6
- LEI for November 2024: 101.7
- LEI for October 2024: 101.4
- LEI for September 2024: 101.7
- LEI for August 2024: 102.1
- LEI for July 2024: 102.4
- LEI for June 2024: 102.9
The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:
- The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
- Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
- Building permits for new private housing
- The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
- Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Average weekly manufacturing hours
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
- Leading Credit Index™
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6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JUNE 2025 UPDATE
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From Today's Report:
"...'The US LEI fell further in June,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance. In addition, the LEI’s six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month. At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices.'..."
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