Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for SEPTEMBER 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for SEPTEMBER 2025:

===============================
Previous Month (unrevised): -0.1%

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.7% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.3% 

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +3.3% (prior = +2.1%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +2.5% (prior = +2.9%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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ISM Manufacturing Index for OCTOBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for October, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 48.7% (-0.4 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 49.1%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariffs landscape.'
   (Chemical Products)
  

•     'Decrease in domestic demand for finished products has resulted in slower manufacturing and an increase of raw material in inventory.'
   (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  

•     'In general, business is really strained. Money is sitting tighter, and geopolitical changes add to the uncertainty/risk factor. Even medical fields are feeling the pressure.'
   (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  

•     'Sales continue to underperform in our automotive OEM and industrial divisions. Our aerospace and automotive aftermarket are the only areas performing slightly above budget. This is the third month of lower-than-expected sales, and the remainder of the year outlook is not looking better. Sales are expected to be slightly less than in 2024.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products)
  

•     'Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.'
   (Machinery)
  

•     'The commercial vehicle (CV) market remains depressed as customers continue to delay vehicle purchases. Uncertainty in price and transportation demand remains the center of attention. U.S. trade policy and reciprocal actions by China in the form of export controls on rare earths and semiconductors, as well as ocean freight carrier restrictions, have once again caused a lot of stress in supply lines. The CV industry is now bracing for the next round of tariffs focused on commercials vehicles, scheduled to begin on November 1.'
   (Transportation Equipment)
  

•     'The tariff trade war has negatively impacted agricultural export markets, driving down demand and price. This negatively impacts farmer revenue and the likelihood of farmers investing in new equipment.'
   (Machinery)
  

•     'The unpredictability of the tariff situation continues to cause havoc and uncertainty on future pricing/cost. But even with the tariffs, the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S. Challenges with tariffs on production equipment necessary for internal production makes it difficult to justify expansion of capacity.'
   (Computer & Electronic Products) 

•     'Volatility in some of our highly exposed commodity markets has tempered a bit, thanks to improved weather conditions and overall downward pressure on pricing. Tariffs continue to remain difficult to quantify, manage and deal with in general, since they continue to impact us day-to-day and our bottom line.'
   (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) 

•     'Wonder has turned to concern regarding how the tariff threats are affecting our business. Orders are down across most divisions, and we’ve lowered our financial expectations for 2025.'
   (Chemical Products)

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
October 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
October 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for OCTOBER 2025

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for October 2025:
=========

Predicted: 98.5

• Actual: 98.2

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -0.61% (-0.6 point.)

• Change from A Year Ago: +4.8% (+4.5 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
OCTOBER 2025 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

 

From the Report:

 

"...OVERVIEW
Uncertainty, while lower than in September, remained high. The upcoming elections (Oct. Survey) and government shutdown likely played a role. Small business owners were reasonably optimistic at the start of the year (Optimism Index at 102.8), but it has been a downhill slide through the last nine or so months with the current reading closing in on the 52-year average of 98. Foreign policy dominates the headlines, with a focus on tariff policy, raising lots of consternation about the cost of inputs and pressures to raise prices. Sales were not strong, and profits took a hit in the third quarter; lots of owners reported profit declines.

• INFLATION

In October, both actual and planned price increases fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 3 points from September to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted). Despite the decline, price increases remain above the monthly average of a net 13%, suggesting continued inflationary pressure. Unadjusted, 31% reported higher average prices (down 2 points), and 12% reported lower average selling prices (up 2 points). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 30% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices (down 1 point from September). Twelve percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), down 2 points from September.

• CREDIT MARKETS
  

A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 2 points from September’s highest reading of this year. In October, a net 1% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 6 points from September. The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.7% in October, down 0.1 point from September. Twenty-three percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 3 points from September..."

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 98.8

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 93.7

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of October 24, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 24, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -6,900,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -9,500,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 416,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for SEPTEMBER 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2025:

=========================================

CPI During September 2025: 324.800

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.2%

->  Actual: +0.254% (+0.824 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.013% (+9.499 points)

[prior = +2.92%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%

 - > Actual: +0.253% (+0.834 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.02% (+9.695 points)

[prior = +3.11%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During September 2024: 315.301

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
SEPTEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of October 17, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 17, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -3,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 422,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of October 10, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 10, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +3,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 423,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of October 3, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 3, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,700,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -2,500,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 420,300,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 26, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 26, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +1,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -400,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 416,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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ISM Manufacturing Index for SEPTEMBER 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for September, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 49.1% (+0.4 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.7%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     'Business continues to be severely depressed. Profits are down and extreme taxes (tariffs) are being shouldered by all companies in our space. We have increased price pressures both to our inputs and customer outputs as companies are starting to pass on tariffs via surcharges, raising prices up to 20 percent. The addition of the derivative steel and aluminum tariffs in the middle of the month -- with no announcement -- was devastating. Interest-rate lowering or the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ will not impact our business, as all capital projects are on hold until there is some level of certainty and customers start to place orders for new equipment again. We believe we are in a stagflation period where prices are up but orders are down due to tariff policy, and again, customers are not willing to pay the higher prices, so they are just not buying. Continuing to find ways to reduce overhead, which means letting go of experienced workers.'
   (Transportation Equipment)
  

 

•     'The tariffs are still causing issues with imported goods into the U.S. In addition to the cost concerns, product is being held up at borders due to documentation issues. The inflation issues continue; low volumes are a constant concern. The European region is not improving as we had expected, causing further concern for long-term business viability.'
   (Chemical Products)
  

 

•     'Ongoing macroeconomic conditions highlighted by interest-rate management and tariffs continue to impact customer purchasing decisions, resulting in subdued production rates and growing cost concerns on direct material and operations.'
   (Machinery)
  

 

•     'Lead times have slightly normalized, but tariffs continue to drive additional spend.'
   (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  

 

•     'Customer orders are depressed for heavy machinery because tariffs are so impactful to high-end capital equipment. Revenue expectations are flat for the rest of 2025, with no outlook to improve in 2026.'
   (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  

 

•     'Current business conditions remain volatile, with geopolitical tensions, weather disruptions and shifting trade policies driving uncertainty in agricultural commodities. Oils remain sensitive to biofuel demand and global production. Inflation and evolving consumer trends add further complexity. To manage this, we are emphasizing supplier diversification, long-term contracts and formula-based pricing to balance cost stability with flexibility.'
   (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  

 

•     'The semiconductor industry is being impacted by high tariff prices on parts from Korea, China and Europe. Our industry is at a low point right now as we race to get new nanotechnology in the U.S.'
   (Computer & Electronic Products)
  

 

•     'Business is slowing down. Order books are softening as customers push orders out. Seems to be stemming from concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy.'
   (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  

 

•     'Tariffs still affecting vast amounts of increases in hardware, Al (artificial intelligence) and stainless steel. MRO (maintenance, repair and operating) products have continually increased, and the slowdown in agriculture has had stark impacts on bottom lines for raw materials.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products) 

•     'Steel tariffs are killing us.'
   (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
September 2025 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
September 2025 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for AUGUST 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for August 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.6%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.9%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for August 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2025:

==============

Index for August 2025: 98.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.51% (-0.5 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.9% (-4.0 points)

============== 

• LEI for July 2025: 98.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'In August, the US LEI registered its largest monthly decline since April 2025, signaling more headwinds ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Among its components, only stock prices and the Leading Credit Index supported the LEI in August and over the past six months. Meanwhile, the contribution of the yield spread turned slightly negative for the first time since April.

'Besides persistently weak manufacturing new orders and consumer expectation indicators, labor market developments also weighed on the Index with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI suggests that economic activity will continue to slow.

A major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and in H1 2026.

The Conference Board, while not forecasting recession currently, expects GDP to grow by only 1.6% in 2025, a substantial slowdown from 2.8% in 2024.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 12, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 12, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -9,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -2,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 415,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2025:

=========================================

CPI During August 2025: 323.976

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.2%

->  Actual: +0.287% (+0.928 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.92% (+9.18 points)

[prior = +2.7%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%

 - > Actual: +0.3% (+0.99 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.11% (+9.953 points)

[prior = +3.06%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August 2024: 314.796

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
AUGUST 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST 2025:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.7

• Actual: -0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.3%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.6% 

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.8% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +2.1% (prior = +1.9%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +2.9% (prior = +4.0%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
AUGUST 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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