Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 29, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 29, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +2,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +2,400,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 420,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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ISM Manufacturing Index for August 2025

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for August, 2025:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 48.7% (+0.7 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 48.0%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August for the sixth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•     ' A 50-percent tariff on imports from Brazil, combined with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s elimination of the specialty sugar quota, means certified organic cane sugar -- and everything made with it -- is about to get significantly more expensive.'
    (Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products)
  

 

•     ' Orders across most product lines have decreased. Financial expectations for the rest of 2025 have been reduced. Too much uncertainty for us and our customers regarding tariffs and the U.S./global economy.'
    (Chemical Products)
  

 

•     'Tariffs continue to be unstable, with suppliers adding surcharges ranging between 2.6% to 50%.'
    (Petroleum + Coal Products)
  

 

•     'Tariffs continue to wreak havoc on planning/scheduling activities. New product development costs continue to increase as unexpected tariff increases are announced -- for example, 50% duties on imports from India, and increases to all countries up from original 10%. Our materials/supplies are now rising in price, so our sell pricing is again being reviewed to ensure we keep a sustainable margin.
  
  Plans to bring production back into U.S. are impacted by higher material costs, making it more difficult to justify the return.'
    (Computer & Electronic Products)
  

 

•     ' The construction industry, especially home building, is still at a lower level. With new construction at a low level, our new sales are impacted. We are mainly now relying on replacement business. Cost of goods sold is higher due to tariff-impacted goods.'
    (Machinery)
  

 

•     "Domestic sales remain flat but are down four percent from plan by unit volume [tariff pricing].
  
  Export demand is falling as customers do not accept tariff impacts, which likely will require some production transfers out of the U.S. Supplier deliveries remain consistent with ocean shipping costs dropping significantly.
  
  Tariff costs have biggest financial impact but also costs of copper and of steel products.'
   (Fabricated Metal Products)
  

 

•     ' The trucking industry continues to contract. Our backlog continues to shrink as customers continue to hold off on buying new equipment. This current environment is much worse than the Great Recession of 2008-09. There is absolutely no activity in the transportation equipment industry.
  
  This is 100% attributable to current tariff policy and the uncertainty it has created. We are also in stagflation: Prices are up due to material tariffs, but volume is way off.'
    (Transportation Equipment)
  

 

•     ' Very tentative domestic market, with home building and remodeling not very active at all. Inflation, among other factors, is starting to impact consumer buying power, leading to negative signs for our order files. International markets are upended due to the unpredictability of on-again, off-again tariff activity.'
    (Wood Products)
  

 

•     ' We’ve implemented our second price increase. "Made in the USA" has become even more difficult due to tariffs on many components. Total price increases so far: 24%; that will only offset tariffs.
  
  No influence on margin percentage, which will actually drop. In two rounds of layoffs, we have let go of about 15 percent of our U.S. workforce. These are high-paying and high-skilled roles: engineers, marketing, design teams, finance, IT and operations.
  
  The administration wants manufacturing jobs in the U.S., but we are losing higher-skilled and higher-paying roles. With no stability in trade and economics, capital expenditures spending and hiring are frozen. It’s survival.'
    (Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components)
  

 

•     ' There is still uncertainty in the construction market. Large expansions or investment are hampered by the unknown of costing and the economy. The markets we operate in can be strong short term, but there is an underlying feeling that has you questioning for how long.'
    (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
August 2025 Update

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for JULY 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
JULY 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 22, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 22, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -6,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 418,300,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Leading Economic Index for July 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2025:

==============

Index for July 2025: 98.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.61% (-3.7 points)

============== 

• LEI for June 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JULY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The leading economic index for the US decreased just slightly in July,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Pessimistic consumer expectations for business conditions and weak new orders continued to weigh down the index. Meanwhile, stock prices remained a key positive support of the LEI.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance were much lower in July than in June and were the second most positive component of the LEI, after contributing negatively to the index over the previous three months.

While the LEI’s six-month growth rate remains negative, it improved slightly in July -- but not enough to avoid triggering the recession signal again. Despite that, The Conference Board does not currently project a recession, though we do expect the economy to weaken in H2 2025, as the negative impacts from tariffs become more visible. Overall, real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% year-over-year in 2025, before slowing in 2026 to 1.3%.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 15, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 15, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -5,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -6,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 420,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JULY 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JULY 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (unrevised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.9%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.3%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): FLAT 

• Actual: +0.6%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.8% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.5%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.9% (prior = +1.7%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.0% (prior = +2.7%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JULY 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 8, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 8, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -4,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 426,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025:

=========================================

CPI During July 2025: 323.048

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.2%

->  Actual: +0.15% (+0.487 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.7% (+8.508 points)

[prior = +2.67%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%

 - > Actual: +0.19% (+0.616 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.06% (+9.766 points)

[prior = +2.93%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During June 2024: 314.540

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JULY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 1, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 1, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -5,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 423,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for JUNE 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.3%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): -0.4%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - revised = +2.4%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - revised = +2.8%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

 

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
JUNE 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 18, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 18, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,200,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -17,500,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 419,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Leading Economic Index for June 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2025:

==============

Index for June 2025: 98.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.3% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.98% (-4.1 points)

==============

• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JUNE 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell further in June,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance. In addition, the LEI’s six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month. At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JUNE 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): +0.3%

• Actual: FLAT

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.3% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.1% 

• Actual: FLAT

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.5% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.7% (prior = +1.3%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +2.7% (prior = +3.2%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JUNE 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025:

=========================================

CPI During June 2025: 322.561

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.34% (+1.096 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.67% (+8.386 points)

[prior = +2.35%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.261% (+0.855 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.93% (+9.361 points)

[prior = +2.79%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During June 2024: 314.175

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JUNE 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 4, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 4, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +7,100,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -19,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 426,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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