PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): -0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.8%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.5%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

=====================

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays and Savings
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

 =====================

 

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 21, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 21, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 433,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for March 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 92.9

================

Previous Month (revised): 100.1

• Change from Previous Month: -7.19% (-7.2 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'Of the Index’s five components, only consumers’ assessment of present labor market conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current business conditions weakened to close to neutral. Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low. Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about future income -- which had held up quite strongly in the past few months -- largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.'

Guichard added: 'Likely in response to recent market volatility, consumers turned negative about the stock market for the first time since the end of 2023. In March, only 37.4% expected stock prices to rise over the year ahead -- down nearly 10 percentage points from February and 20 percentage points from the high reached in November 2024. On the flip side, 44.5% expected stock prices to decline (up 11 ppts from February and over 22 ppts more than November 2024). Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations rose again -- from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March -- as consumers remained concerned about high prices for key household staples like eggs and the impact of tariffs.'..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
MARCH 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 14, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 14, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +1,700,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -8,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 437,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Leading Economic Index for February 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for February 2025:
==============

Index for February 2025: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.3% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.46% (-1.5 points)

==============

• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6 
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in February and continues to point to headwinds ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic. That was the component that weighed down most heavily on the Index in February.

Manufacturing new orders, which improved in January, retreated and were the second largest negative contributor to the Index’s monthly decline.

On a positive note, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates, while still negative, have remained on an upward trend since the end of 2023, suggesting that headwinds in the economy as of February may have moderated compared to last year.

However, given substantial policy uncertainty and the notable pullback in consumer sentiment and spending since the beginning of the year, we currently forecast that real GDP growth in the US will slow to around 2.0% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.0%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +1.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +1.3%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.7%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

FEBRUARY 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): +0.6%

• Actual: FLAT

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.2% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.3% 

• Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3% 
(prior - revised = +3.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.7% (prior = +2.3%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.9% (prior = +4.1%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 7, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 7, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +1,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -11,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 435,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025:

=========================================

CPI During February 2025: 319.082

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.4%

->  Actual: +0.44% (+1.411 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.82% (+8.756 points)

[prior = +3.00%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.4%

 - > Actual: +0.44% (+1.41 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.12% (+9.833 points)

[prior = +3.26%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During February 2024: 310.326

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================  

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 28, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  February 28, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 433,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for January 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for January 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.8%

• Actual: -0.2%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.4%

• Actual: +0.9%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

=====================

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays and Savings
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

 =====================

 

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 21, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  February 21, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -17,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 430,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for February 2025

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (February 2025) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 98.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 105.3

• Change from Previous Month: -6.65% (-7.0 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,' said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly.

'Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.'

February’s fall in confidence was shared across all age groups but was deepest for consumers between 35 and 55 years old. The decline was also broad-based among income groups, with the only exceptions among households earning less than $15,000 a year and between $100,000–125,000.

Guichard added: 'Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs. References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high in write-in responses, but the focus shifted towards other topics.

'There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses.'

Consumers’ views of their Family’s Current and Future Financial Situation were less positive, retreating from the series highs reached in January. The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months increased to a nine-month high. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®.)

Consumers’ bullishness about the stock market also retreated: only 46.8% of consumers expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead -- the smallest share since April 2024, and down from 54.2% in January. By contrast, 32.8% expected stock prices to decline, up from 24.8% in January. More than half (51.7%) of consumers expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months. The share of consumers expecting lower interest rates dropped further to 24.0% from 27.1% last month.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes continued to recover, likely supported by the very recent decline in mortgage rates. On the other hand, buying plans for cars and big-ticket items were down, with notable declines for TVs and electronics.

Consumers ’ overall intentions to purchase additional services in the months ahead were changed little, but their priorities shifted slightly: personal and health care, as well as movies and live entertainment, moved up the priority list, at the expense of streaming and travel. Vacation plans continued to trend downward..."

================

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

=========================================

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2025

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2025:

==================

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.03

==================

• Previous Month (revised): N/A

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.03

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
January 2025 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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Leading Economic Index for January 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for January 2025:
==============

Index for January 2025: 101.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.29% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.07% (-1.1 points)

==============

• LEI for December 2024: 101.8
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined in January, reversing most of the gains from the previous two months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessments of future business conditions turned more pessimistic in January, which -- alongside fewer weekly hours worked in manufacturing -- drove the monthly decline.

However, manufacturing orders have almost stabilized after weighing heavily on the Index since 2022, and the yield spread contributed positively for the first time since November 2022.

Overall, just four of the LEI’s 10 components were negative in January. In addition, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates continued to trend upward, signaling milder obstacles to US economic activity ahead.

We currently forecast that real GDP for the US will expand by 2.3% in 2025, with stronger growth in the first half of the year.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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