Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JANUARY 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JANUARY, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.0%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.4% 

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.4% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.5%)

===============================

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index

  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JANUARY 2026 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending February 20, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 20, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +15,900,000 Barrels (+1.9%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +25,700,000 Barrels (+3.11%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 851,200,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for DECEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.3%
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.3% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: FLAT* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
  (prior - revised = +2.8%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - revised = +2.8%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

 

CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for DECEMBER 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December, 2025:

==============

Index for December, 2025: 97.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.2%

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.94% (-4.0 points)

============== 

• LEI for November 2025: 97.8  
  
  
• LEI for October 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI registered its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, indicating continued softness in the economy in early 2026,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Alongside a rise in building permits, positive contributions to the LEI in December were led by the index’s financial components, with the yield spread notably turning positive in both November and December.

'However, persistently weak consumer expectations indicators and the ISM® New Orders Index made the largest negative contributions to the LEI in December. Labor market data also weighed on the Index, with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI signals weaker economic activity at the start of this year. The Conference Board projects a slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026, with GDP set to expand by 2.1% YOY in 2026, from a forecasted 2.2% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for JANUARY 2026

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During January 2026: 325.252

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: +0.37% (+1.198 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.39% (+7.581 points)

[Y-o-Y prior = +2.68%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: FLAT

 - > Actual: +0.44% (+1.444 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.5% (+8.108 points)

[Y-o-Y prior = +2.64%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During January 2025: 317.671

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
JANUARY 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending February 06, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 06, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +8,500,000 Barrels (+1.02%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +20,800,000 Barrels (+2.53%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 844,000,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending January 30, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 30, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -3,300,000 Barrels (-0.4%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +16,600,000 Barrels (+2.03%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 835,500,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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ISM Manufacturing Index for JANUARY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for January, 2026:

=========

Predicted: 49.0%

• Actual: 52.6% (+4.7 points month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 47.9%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in 12 months, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report...."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

•      ' ‘Hope’ has been word of the year in the Transportation Equipment industry. Unfortunately, all the hope in the world has not materialized into order activity in 2025 or the first half of 2026. Across the board, buyers continue to stand on the sidelines. As we enter 2026, every conversation revolves around hope that the second half of 2026 starts the turnaround. It’s hard to set strategy on hope, but thanks to the uncertainty brought about by this administration, here we are.'
   [Transportation Equipment] 

•     'Although our volume is low at the moment, the impact on the latest tariff threats on the European Union will have a huge negative impact on our profit for current quoted orders. We will not be able to recover the increase tariffs in our current quotations.'
   [Machinery] 

•     'Continuing softness in the market, with December orders below average and buyers reluctant to spend despite beneficial tax policies in the U.S. Geopolitical tensions are fueling ‘anti-American’ buyer sentiment, and sales are being lost.'
   [Machinery] 

•     'Another round of emotionally charged tariffs seems imminent, changing the landscape once more. Movement of custom product out of China continues, but the progress is slow with new qualifications required for transitioned materials and assemblies.'
   [Computer & Electronic Products] 

•     'Business conditions remain uncertain. Customers are cautious. Broad-based inflation continues. The Supreme Court tariff decision looms.' [Computer & Electronic Products] 

•     'Growing construction markets, data centers and energy projects, are straining the contract labor availability. The trade tariff uncertainty is creating volatility in the supply chain.'
   [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products] 

•     'A new year, with new challenges. We are moving manufacturing from China to Mexico -- which will now impose tariffs on parts made in China. This push for more of a Mexican supply chain and creates some short-term supply management concerns.'
   [Chemical Products] 

•     'Confused and uninformed tariff policies continue to plague small companies, making long-term planning pointless. Companies are not making capital commitments beyond 30 days.'
   [Fabricated Metal Products] 

•     'Business conditions remain soft as we continue to miss sales, orders and profits as result of increased costs from tariffs, continued fallout from the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.'
   [Miscellaneous Manufacturing] 

•     'Business trends moving into 2026 feature many of the headwinds from the third and fourth quarters of 2025. While the ‘plane’ has steadied, there continues to be uncertainty and added costs through our global operations.
  
  Tariff impacts on our financial performance last year cannot be overstated, as we had a much smaller EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) than previous years. While other inflationary pressures continue to hit the business, tariffs and product costs played a large role. This year, we will continue our multi-country sourcing approach to manufacture and import product from more tariff-friendly countries outside of China. 
  
  But as we know, nothing is guaranteed with the current administration. We have trimmed costs everywhere inside the business, including on labor and conferences, and reduced our revenue forecast to a much more achievable mark. We’re prepared to battle throughout the year for higher profitability.'
   [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]
  

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
January 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
January 2026 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

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Leading Economic Index for NOVEMBER 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for November, 2025:

==============

Index for November, 2025: 97.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.31% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.74% (-3.8 points)

============== 

• LEI for October 2025: 98.2 
   
• LEI for September 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May 2025: 99.1
   
• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7 
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in both October and November,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Throughout 2025, weak consumers expectations led the decline in the LEI, followed by new orders. The remaining components of the leading index were relatively muted in November, with the strongest positive contributions coming from labor market data, like initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing.

Despite real GDP growth hitting 4.4% in Q3 2025, the LEI continues to suggest that the US economy will slow in 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for NOVEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.3%
  
  
• Real Disposable Personal Income: +0.1% 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending January 16, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 16, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +4,400,000 Barrels (+0.53%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +34,300,000 Barrels (+4.25%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 840,500,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending January 9, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 9, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +3,600,000 Barrels (+0.43%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +29,100,000 Barrels (+3.61%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 836,100,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for DECEMBER 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, 2025:

=========================================

CPI During December 2025: 324.054

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: -0.021% (-0.068 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.68% (+8.449 points)

[prior = +2.74%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: FLAT

 - > Actual: -0.025% (-0.081 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.64% (+8.499 points)

[prior = +2.63%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During December 2024: 315.605

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
DECEMBER 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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