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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Saturday, September 12, 2026

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for AUGUST, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.1%

  • Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12-months previous:  +5.4% 
(prior - revised = +4.8%)

===============================

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (un
revised): +0.4% 

  • Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12-months previous:  +4.7% 
(prior - unrevised = +4.7%)

===============================

CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update

  • PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +7.7% (prior = +6.8%)
  • PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.5% (prior = +4.0%)


  CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - AUGUST 2026 Update
CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
AUGUST 2026 Update

==============

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Friday, September 11, 2026

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for AUGUST 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, 2026:


=========================================

CPI During August2026: 334.980

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  
Actual: +0.318% (+1.062 points)

  • Year-on-Year Change+3.4% (+11.004 points)
[Y-o-Y previous = +3.36%]


=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%

 - > 
Actual: +0.27% (+0.908 point)

  • Year-on-Year Change: +2.45% (+8.071 points)
[Y-o-Y previous = +2.48%]


=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August, 2025: 323.976

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - AUGUST 2026 Update
CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
AUGUST 2026 Update

========================================

========================================

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Thursday, September 10, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending September 4, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 4, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -1,700,000 Barrels (-0.24%)

Δ from 1-Year Previous: -120,500,000 Barrels (-14.52%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 709,400,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Tuesday, September 08, 2026

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for AUGUST 2026

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for August, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 99.0

  • Actual: 98.7

----------------

  • Change from Previous Month: -1.10% (-1.1 points.)
  • Change from A Year Ago: -2.08% (-2.5 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  - AUGUST 2026 Update
CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
 AUGUST 2026 Update 

=========

  • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
=========
 
From The Report:
 
"...CREDIT MARKETS

In August, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions rose 2 points to a net -2% (seasonally adjusted). This marks the highest level since December 2024. A net 3% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 2 points from July. In August, a net 4% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, unchanged from July. The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.5% in August, down 0.4 points from July. Twenty-five percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, down 2 points from July, and remaining below the historical average of 34%.

INFLATION

Though still high, the inflation metrics were flat in August. In August, a seasonally adjusted net 31% of owners reported raising average selling prices, unchanged from July but well above the historical average of net 14%. Unadjusted, 38% reported higher average prices (down 2 points), and 8% reported lower average selling prices (unchanged). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, unchanged from July. This is also above its historical average (net 22%), though with a smaller gap than actual prices. Reports of
inflation as the single most important problem
picked up in August. Sixteen percent of business owners cited
inflation as their single most important business problem, up 2 points from July and ranking the second top issue, tied with taxes. August’s reading remains elevated, with the historical average at 7%.

QUOTES on INFLATION

“Outside of the challenge of getting good productive help,
inflation has been the hardest to navigate.”
 – Manufacturing, IN

“The increase in the costs of aluminum, steel, and other raw materials has raised our inventory costs by more than 40% over our levels at the beginning of 2025.”
 – Manufacturing, MO

"The Iran [invasion] and shipping disruptions are greatly affecting agricultural input costs."
 -Agriculture, IN

Labor, chemicals, and taxes are always our biggest expenses, and they all just keep going up with no end in sight. Daunting and scary.”
 – Agriculture, NY

“Cost pressures continue, with insurance and labor benefits increasing at a higher rate than supplies, etc. I feel many small businesses are in a wait-and-see mode for further business expansion.”
 – Services, OH

The costs of energy and goods (especially here in Maryland) have increased dramatically. This has impacted our bottom line, which of course impacts pricing, which impacts our customers’ ability to afford us.”
 – Services, MD

“The cost of fuel is my number one expense, so this $4.00 and above gas price is really affecting my deliveries. I’ve been absorbing it somewhat by changing my delivery routes, but eventually I’m going to have to increase the cost of things I sell!”
 – Wholesale, PA

“The price of energy adversely affects sales.”
 – Services, TX

“Input costs have gone up dramatically, particularly for fuel and fertilizer...The financial squeeze is significant! Farmers can’t control prices or weather.”
 – Agriculture, OH

LABOR

The quality of skilled labor is affecting my growth. I have given up on looking. My business is service-based, and the demand for accountants is increasing. If I could find the personnel, I could easily double, if not triple, my income.”
 – Professional/business services, VA

My problem is that no one wants to work. I have advertised in all the areas I know of, and we have had a total of zero applications. In thirty years of business, this has never happened.”
 –Services, TN

“Since 2023, our business has had a hard time hiring employees – good technician mechanics with experience.”
 – Services, TX

“It is very difficult to find dental assistants or dental hygienists on a permanent basis.”
 – Professional/business services, OR

Labor is the biggest challenge we face. We need H-2B visas to be more readily available, and we need them to be easier to navigate. Reduce the red tape.” – Agriculture, IN

We need to bring back and step up trade education in all areas.
 – Services, VT

Getting control of the minimum wage is a big problem! I am a small business and hire a lot of first time employees. Because I have to start a first timer at $15/hour, there is not much left to reward my long-term employees. Merit raises become a thing of the past.
 – Retail, AZ

Imports coming into the USA at way below market price and getting employees are a huge problem for agriculture. Many of us would no longer be in business if it was not for the H-2A program.”
 – Agriculture, MT

We need to get rid of the Minnesota Paid Leave program for seasonal and temporary employees.”
 – Agriculture, MN

I own and operate a childcare business. I am seeing my costs increase dramatically, by more than 15% annually, and I am having an increasingly hard time finding staff. Online job postings receive a lot of interest and applications, but only about a third at best respond to interview requests. […]”
 – Professional/business services, OH

BUSINESS + ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

“Federal policies are creating unstable economic conditions for small businesses. Customers are uncertain about future economic conditions and thus unwilling to make major investments in future development.”
 – Construction, OR

"We are experiencing a slowdown and don't plan to hire more employees at this time. The economic outlook is very uncertain and will likely get worse."
 - Professional/business services,

The opportunities to grow the business are incredible, but the resources [needed] to grow the business are very expensive and very hard to reach for my small business.
 – Retail, OH

"The economy has been very poor since early 2025. The volatility in trade and tariff policies has hurt construction in our area... I am currently in a hold pattern for growing our business because the economic conditions are not favorable now."
 - Construction, OR

Although our business is steady, we have found that our customers are cash-poor and using credit for their transactions. In the end, this cuts down on our sales as our patrons have less money in the end. […]”
 – Retail, PA

"The impact of cost increases due to tariffs and supply chain challenges... is meaningful."
 - Retail, NH

"Running a repair shop, we generally judge how busy we are by how far out we are scheduled. Over the last month or two, the schedule has definitely gotten better than the beginning of the summer. Our hope is it continues in that direction, as winter is typically slower."
 - Services, MT 

“It is hard to grow. We are mostly trying to maintain what we have.” 
– Wholesale, PA

“Until the [Iran invasion] started, we were doing great. We had our best month ever in March 2026, and following was a drop of 60%.”
 – Services, AZ

“I am awaiting the end of the 
[Iran invasion] to make some bigger financial decisions for my business.”
– Services, WA

“The business outlook is good as long as the weather is proper for syrup production next spring.
[…]”
 – Agriculture, NY..."

=========

  • Previous Month's SBOI: 99.8
  • SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 100.8
=========

=========

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Wednesday, September 02, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending August 28, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 28, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -7,500,000 Barrels (-1.04%)

Δ from 1-Year Previous: -114,300,000 Barrels (-13.85%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 711,100,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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ISM Manufacturing Index for AUGUST 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for August 2026:

=========

  • Actual: 54.6% (-1.0 point month-on-month)

=========

Previous month: 55.6%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S.
manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the eighth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
.."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

  • "...'The economy is annoying; it is getting in the way of otherwise good business. We are making great new products but struggling to compete when prices escalate due to things like tariffs and the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. I fear that the inflation caused by these factors will lead to lower sales and lower spending power of our customers. Call it inflation! At some point, it leads to an economic downturn or at least an economic pain for many consumers. It’s an uncertain year, our second in a row.'
     [Chemical Products]
  • 'For our building products division, profitability is not far off from last year despite economic headwinds, as our specialty products have maintained their market share and sales. Specific to IT, the rising costs in component inputs have caused some budgetary constraints as we plan for the 2027 fiscal year. However, we largely been able to keep costs close to historic consumer price index averages.'
     [Chemical Products]
     
  • 'Supply chain situation, especially in the electronics market, is going through another crisis even bigger and more complicated than during and post COVID-19. That’s mainly due to AI infrastructure and uncertainties in the global market (for oil and other critical supplies) due to war in the Middle East and more complication on trade rules.'
     [Computer + Electronic Products]
     
  • 'Supply markets are increasingly challenging due to inflation and supply availability. Each month has been more difficult than the previous one. Starting to resemble the post-COVID-19 disruptive period.'
     [Computer + Electronic Products]
     
  • 'Photonics, high speed connectors, semiconductors and government orders are expanding significantly. Supply chains domestically and globally are difficult, with increases in lead times and cost.'
     [Machinery]
     
  • 'Commentary this month echoes that of recent months: (1) significant availability/price challenges in commodities heavily consumed by AI, (2) great uncertainty over when the Iran [invasion] will end, and (3) another round of shifting U.S. tariff policy. Despite these tensions, we continue to focus on what we can control, and the market for our products remains strong.'
     [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
     
  • 'This month is a blur: Steel prices continue to climb as supply diminishes, aluminum is rising after dropping, and there are many holes on the plate side. Demand seems to be a seesaw. Our prediction ability continues to diminish, with the exception that the year will remain difficult until the end.'
     [Primary Metals]
     
  • 'High steel and aluminum prices (due to Section 232 tariffs) continue to make profitability a challenge. Uncertainty over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is at the forefront of many customer conversations. Our industry has also been hit with countervailing and anti-dumping penalties, further raising the cost of equipment.'
     [Transportation Equipment]
     
  • 'Volume is consistent. Our main customer is shifting production from U.S. plants to Mexico plants.'
     [Transportation Equipment]..."

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index - AUGUST 2026 Update
CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
AUGUST 2026 Update
=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index 12-Month History - AUGUST 2026 Update
DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
AUGUST 2026 Update
=========

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Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending August 21, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 21, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -3,600,000 Barrels (-0.5%)

Δ from 1-Year Previous: -103,900,000 Barrels (-12.63%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 718,600,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for JULY 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

  • Actual: +0.2%

  • > Real PCE: FLAT*
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading
 (unrevised)+0.2%

  • Actual: +0.4%

    • > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.5%

    • >> Real DPI: +0.4%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update 


PCE Price Index
Previous Reading 
(revised): -0.1%

  • Actual: +0.2% 
  • Change from 12-months previous: +3.7%
    (prior - unrevised = +3.7%)
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading 
(unrevised)+0.1%

  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Change from 12-months previous: +3.3%
    (prior - unrevised = +3.3%)
=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================
 
CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending - JULY 2026 UPDATE
CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
JULY 2026 UPDATE
=====================
*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for JULY 2026

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July, 2026:

==================

  • Actual (CFNAI): -0.08

==================

  • Previous Month (revised): +0.06
  • 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.04
==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and income;
  • Employment, unemployment, and hours;
  • Personal consumption and housing; and
  • Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================
 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles - JULY 2026 Update
CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
JULY 2026 Update

===================


Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================



==================

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for JULY 2026

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for July, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 99.0

  • Actual: 99.8

----------------

  • Change from Previous Month: +2.46% (+2.4 points.)
  • Change from A Year Ago: -0.5% (-0.5 point.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - JULY 2026 Update
CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
JULY 2026 Update 

=========

  • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
=========
 
From The Report:
 
"...MEMBER QUOTES

Labor:

We struggle to find skilled labor/trades.” – Construction, NY

“The ability to find/hire competent workers in the HVAC field is increasingly more difficult year to year. It is absolutely necessary to help promote and fund the mechanical trades, particularly the HVAC trade!” –
Construction, CT

Labor is a challenge. We currently rely on older or retired help. […]” – Retail, PA

“Very hard to find skilled machinists who still know manual machines.” – Manufacturing, OH

This is the worst period for hiring skilled labor. I have positions open today that pay well with benefits, but there aren’t any qualified candidates. I have used Indeed, ZipRecruiter, social media, banners, website, etc.”
– Retail, PA

“Finding or having qualified skilled labor applicants is nonexistent.” – Services, SC

“Forty-eight years in business for myself, and the toughest issue has been finding good people to hire and how to compensate them fairly. Health insurance is a disaster – costs more and pays less. Employees want more compensation for less work/production. To keep this trend going we must find easier ways to do tough jobs and charge higher prices with stiff compensation.” – Services, NC

“In the transportation industry it’s very hard right now to find help. I’ve had three trucks out of twelve sitting idle for six months now. I can find drivers, but they aren’t drivers I trust.” – Transportation, IL

Unskilled labor shortage is our biggest problem. […]” – Agriculture, NC

“We are highly seasonal as a farm and do not have steady income. Every year is different depending on market conditions, crop (apple) size, and import/export options… We have a severe labor shortage, which many of us have turned to the federal H-2A program to meet our needs. Labor is now greater than 50% of our input costs due to the rise in benefits, overtime, paid sick days, and base wage rates.” – Agriculture, NY

“Our biggest problem is that we cannot find qualified, skilled employees.” – Agriculture, MN

“Finding and retaining good employees is our biggest challenge. It has never been easy but declined substantially during COVID, and even though it has improved since then, it is still something that our
manager spends way too much time on and it affects all areas of our business.” – Manufacturing, VA

“Our biggest obstacle is finding technicians with experience. It is also difficult to find office employees. Most [people] we hire off the street do not last. [They] miss a lot of work.” – Construction, AZ

“Engineers generally do not go looking for better jobs as much as [those] in other fields. They tend to sit tight and not rock the boat. We are trying to hire an experienced engineer or two, but they just aren’t out there. So we are being forced to hire engineers out of school or inexperienced.” – Professional/business services, OH

“Biggest issue in our industry is the lack of skilled workers on our job sites, in our fabrication shops, and with our suppliers.” – Construction, IN

“Business is good. Hoping for everything to get better and for costs not to continue to rise as they have been. The labor workforce is getting slim, and [it] seems like quality people are getting harder to find in
labor fields.” – Services, TX

“We have a weird situation where I can get more unskilled labor than I need. But I am unable to fill a skilled operator with higher pay, better hours, and better benefits. No one is even willing to accept a promotion.” –Agriculture, IL

Inflation:

“Farming is in a pinch right now with the high prices of our inputs fertilizer, fuel, chemicals, and taxes).” – Agriculture, IN

“Labor, fuel, and insurance have all gone up. [We are] having a hard time raising rates to keep up with the cost of doing business.” – Transportation, CA

“We have a trucking company and a grain farm. The cost of fuel alone is killing us. Fertilizer for the farm is out of this world. Something has to give soon or we’re going to be the ones giving up everything.” –
Transportation, PA

“In farming we are experiencing very high input costs coupled with low commodity prices which have impacted our margins! Farm equipment prices have increased by over 300% in the past 15 years, making it
almost impossible to purchase new equipment. The farmer suffers while we purchase our supplies/equipment from monopolies that are making record profits. Those companies that purchase our commodities have become monopolies as well!” – Agriculture, TX

Worried about the economy due to inflation. Our guests do not have the disposable income they had a few years ago. […]” – Services, OH

“Most businesses can at least pass on increases for products. Agriculture saw huge increases in fuel and fertilizer costs. Our commodities are mainly priced by the Chicago Board of Trade, and I have no way of
passing on these increased expenses, leaving myself and the larger agriculture community with the very real possibility of negative margins on our 2026 crops.” – Agriculture, PA

“The costs of materials and employees are up.” – Construction, UT

“Inflation is an issue – not sure how much inventory to order. Taxes force business to make out-of-ordinary decisions. Inflation is a detriment to employees – can’t pay them enough nowadays and getting harder to pass expenses along. Economy appears strong on Wall Street but weak on Main Street.” – Retail, IL

“The cost of interest, insurance, power (gas/electric), supplies, and vehicle gas is drowning my business. Small businesses need help!” – Services, MI

“The marine industry has doubled standard inflation. Over the past seven years, with many OEMs adding another 5-7% for the 2027 model year. We are pricing ourselves out of the market with the other economic pressures (high interest rates and debt, high grocery prices, high fuel prices, etc.).” – Retail, OR

Unfortunately, the cost to operate has almost reached the point that we cannot make a profit because labor and parts markup cannot keep up with the expenses of all insurances, taxes, overhead, payroll, truck payment, and shop payment.” – Services, AL

“The economy seems to be in a weird, uncertain place currently. People are spending, but wages are moving slow.” – Construction, IL

“The inflation caused by tariffs has significantly affected our business. Our customer accounts are struggling to pay their invoices, which amounts to approximately 20-30% of our gross profit.” – Retail, TN

Business Conditions:

“Our business has been slow the past two years due to inflation of gas, oil, and groceries. And people are choosing not to repair their swimming pools, which is not considered a priority, or having their iron gates
and fences built.” – Services, AR

“Overall business has been steady and very busy.” – Manufacturing, OH

The economy is killing us. Work is slow.” – Transportation, OH

“There is a noticeable shift in customers’ behavior – much more price sensitive and questioning all invoices. Many of our large customers have moved out of the area or gone out of business. This leaves fewer customers for us and our competitors to service (we are a regional B2B provider). There is not enough business for us all, so we are working hard to keep or gain as much as we can.” – Wholesale, NY

“Insurance premiums, fuel and utilities, and a lack of skilled labor are having a negative impact on our business.” – Services, OH

“The economy is affecting our bottom line. The trend in healthcare, with insurers paying for less and putting more burden on consumers, is the biggest problem facing all healthcare providers.” – Professional/business services, VA

“Business is fairly robust in our area. The large majority of our clients (small businesses) are profitable.” – Professional/business services, GA

The economy has definitely slowed business. If it’s a question of filling up your car with gas to go to work, putting food on the table, or buying a new appliance just because you want a change in your kitchen, I think we all know which is coming in last. Appliances are replaced when they break down and then mostly from the least expensive place (big-box stores).” – Retail, IL

“Our business is down 15.5% year to date from last year and 28% down from our 5-year average. Rising costs of materials and freight have made us go up in our pricing. Competition is tough as everyone is
willing to go down on their margins to get customers. Our walk-in traffic has diminished tremendously. Our expenses have skyrocketed, and insurance and health insurance are now unaffordable.” – Retail, TX

“Things are slow but the same! Clients are passing away or thinking they can do our job themselves. But they always come back because they realize they can’t or they get in trouble with the different agencies for doing the paperwork or reports wrong. It’s a cycle!” – Professional/business services, AZ

“Business is good, but state regulations are making it harder. Also, the prices of goods are out of reach for most of our customers.” – Construction, NY

Sales:

“I have found it harder to increase sales above what we have. Although we have grossed more year to date, we are basically operating at a zero-profit margin. Overall the cost of everything has increased, in response we raised our prices – but are just breaking even.” – Services, CA

“The internet (do-it-yourself videos) has impacted my bottom line.” – Services, OH

Retail sales numbers continue to decline. Customer count is down as more people are purchasing online and not visiting brick-and-mortar stores. Landscape division numbers are down. Customers have less money to spend due to inflation; customer confidence is down.” – Retail, IA

Insurance:

“Our insurance costs have been a burden for several years. Increasing at a rate we can barely keep up with – most notably auto. And windstorms are also a concern. I believe the whole Texas costs (including Houston) should all share this expense, as this whole area is impacted by hurricanes.” – Manufacturing, TX

Health insurance out of control.” – Professional/business services, OH

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CREDIT MARKETS

In July, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions rose 1 point to a net -4% (seasonally adjusted). A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, up 2 points from June. In July, a net 4% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 1 point from June. The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.9% in July, up 0.5 point from June’s lowest level since October 2022. Twenty-seven percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, up 5 points from June, but remaining below the historical average of 34%.

INFLATION

Though still high, the inflation metrics showed substantial improvement in July. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 7 points from June to a net 31% (seasonally adjusted), after four consecutive months of increases. Actual price increases are well above the historical average of net 14%. Unadjusted, 40% reported higher average prices (down 7 points), and 8% reported lower average selling prices (up 1 point). As actual price increases decreased in July, so did the share of owners planning to raise prices in the near future. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, down 4 points from June. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem fell for the first time this year. Fourteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, down 7 points from June’s highest reading since October 2024. Inflation now ranks as the third top problem..."

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  • Previous Month's SBOI: 97.4
  • SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 100.3
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