Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 20, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 20, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -5,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -45,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 415,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Leading Economic Index for May 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May 2025:

==============

Index for May 2025: 99.0 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -2.27% (-2.3 points)

==============

• LEI for April 2025: 99.1
  
  
• LEI for March 2025: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MAY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI for the US fell again in May, but only marginally,' said  Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the Index.

However, consumers’ pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May’s overall decline.

With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal.

The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for May 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, unrevised: +0.1%
Actual: FLAT

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.2%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +0.1%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, unrevised: +0.1%
Actual: -0.9%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.7%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.0%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

MAY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

MAY 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 13, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 13, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -11,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -36,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 420,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MAY 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for May 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): -0.2%

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.6% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.4%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): -0.1% 

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.7% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.9%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.3% (prior = +0.5%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.2% (prior = +3.3%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
MAY 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 6, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 6, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -27,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 432,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025:

=========================================

CPI During May 2025: 321.465

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.21% (+0.67 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.35% (+7.396 points)

[prior = +2.31%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.21% (+0.694 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.79% (+8.88 points)

[prior = +2.78%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During May 2024: 314.069

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
MAY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q1, 2025 (Revised)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter of 2025 (revised):

Nonfarm Productivity
Previous:  -0.8%
Actual: -1.5%

• Change from A Year Ago: +1.3%

=============

Unit Labor Costs
Previous: +5.7%
Actual: +6.6%

• Change from A Year Ago: +1.9%

=============

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.


For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Labor Productivity + Unit Labor Costs
Q1 2021 Through Q1 2025 (REVISED)

===================   

From Today's Report

 

"...This is the first decline in nonfarm business sector labor productivity since the second quarter of 2022..."

 ===================

 Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

===================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 30, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 30, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -4,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -19,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 436,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: -0.4%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +0.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.0%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.4%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

APRIL 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

APRIL 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.8%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.3%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
APRIL 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 23, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 23, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,300,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 440,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 16, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 16, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +1,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -15,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 443,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Leading Economic Index for April 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2025:

==============

Index for April 2025: 99.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -1.00% (-1.0 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -2.26% (-2.3 points)

==============

• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
APRIL 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.

Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): FLAT

• Actual: -0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.4% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.2% 

• Actual: -0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +0.5% (prior = +0.9%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.3% (prior = +3.6%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
APRIL 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 9, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 9, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -15,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 441,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025:

=========================================

CPI During April 2025: 320.795

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.311% (+0.996 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.31% (+7.247 points)

[prior = +2.39%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.27% (+0.882 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.78% (+8.837 points)

[prior = +2.79%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During April 2024: 313.548

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
APRIL 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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