Leading Economic Index for January 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for January 2025:
==============

Index for January 2025: 101.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.29% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.07% (-1.1 points)

==============

• LEI for December 2024: 101.8
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined in January, reversing most of the gains from the previous two months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessments of future business conditions turned more pessimistic in January, which -- alongside fewer weekly hours worked in manufacturing -- drove the monthly decline.

However, manufacturing orders have almost stabilized after weighing heavily on the Index since 2022, and the yield spread contributed positively for the first time since November 2022.

Overall, just four of the LEI’s 10 components were negative in January. In addition, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates continued to trend upward, signaling milder obstacles to US economic activity ahead.

We currently forecast that real GDP for the US will expand by 2.3% in 2025, with stronger growth in the first half of the year.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: 0.5%
Actual: +1.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.7%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
JANUARY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
JANUARY 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.5% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.4% 

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.4% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +2.3% (prior = +1.8%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.1% (prior = +4.0%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JANUARY 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025:

=========================================

CPI During January 2025: 317.671

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.4%

->  Actual: +0.655% (+2.066 points)

 > Year-on-Year Change: +3.00% (+9.254 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%

 - > Actual: +0.57% (+1.835 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.26% (+10.219 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During January 2024: 308.417

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JANUARY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

======================================== 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.6%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Percent Change in Real Disposable Personal Income, Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y): +2.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

 

Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE

 

 =====================

 

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Leading Economic Index for December 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December 2024:
==============

Index for December 2024: 101.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.45% (-1.5 points)

==============

• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.0
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline.

Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December.

Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead.

Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2024:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.2%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: FLAT
Actual: +0.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.8 %

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
DECEMBER 2024 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
DECEMBER 2024 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2024:

=========================================

CPI During December 2024: 315.605

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  Actual: FLAT M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.89% (+8.859 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%

 - > Actual: +0.02% (+0.06 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.24% (+10.1 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During December 2023: 306.746

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
DECEMBER 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

======================================== 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2024

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2024:

===============================

Previous Month: +0.4%

• Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3%  (prior = +3.0%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3%  (prior = +3.5%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.8% (prior = +1.1%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.0% (prior = +3.9%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
DECEMBER 2024 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of January 3, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 3, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -17,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 414,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 27, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 27, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,200,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -15,500,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 415,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2024

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November, 2024:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

• Actual: (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.7%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income (DPI), Now Dollars: +0.3%

• DPI (2017 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.4%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

===================== 

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Video:
What Is Personal Income?
============

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Leading Economic Index for November 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for November 2024:
==============

Index for November 2024: 99.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: +0.3% (+0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.14% (-3.6 points)

==============

• LEI for October 2024: 99.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 99.8
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 100.2
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
NOVEMBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI rose in November for the first time since February 2022,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November.

It’s worth noting that gains in building permits were not widespread geographically or by building type; they were concentrated mainly to the Northeast and Midwest, and on buildings with 5+ units rather than single-family dwellings.

Overall, the rise in LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the US. The Conference Board currently forecasts US GDP to expand by 2.7% in 2024, but growth to slow to 2.0% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <