Leading Economic Indicators for December 2008

The Conference Board report on the nation's Leading Economic Indicators for December 2008 was released this morning:

Predicted: -0.3%

Actual: +0.3%

The above numbers represent the month-to-month change for the nation's leading economic indicators. The "predicted" figure is what economists and Wall Street forecasters were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns, respectively:

1. The Money Supply (M2)
   
2. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index
   
3. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note and the Fed Funds
   
   
4. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
5. Manufacturer's new orders for non-defense capital goods
   
6. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
7. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
8. The Index of Consumer Expectations
   
9. Vendor performance
   
10. Building permits for new private housing

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