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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, May 19, 2022

Existing Home Sales During April 2022

The Existing Home Sales report for April 2022 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

Predicted: 5,600,000
Actual: 5,610,000

  •  Change from Previous Month: -2.435% (-140,000 homes)

  •  Change from One Year Previous: -5.872% (-350,000 homes)
==========

Inventory: 1,030,000 (2.2 months supply; -4.3% year-on-year.)

==========

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During April 2022: $391,200

Change from One Year Previous: +14.822% (+$50,500)

---------

Average Price for A Used Home During April 2022: $397,600

Change from One Year Previous: +9.2% (+$33,500)

------------------------------------------------------ 

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From Today's Report:

"...Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity,' said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. 'It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we'll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.'

'Housing supply has started to improve, albeit at an extremely sluggish pace,' said Yun.

He also noted the rare state of the current marketplace.

'The market is quite unusual as sales are coming down, but listed homes are still selling swiftly, and home prices are much higher than a year ago,' said Yun.

'Moreover, an increasing number of buyers with short tenure expectations could opt for 5-year adjustable-rate
mortgages , thereby assuring fixed payments over five years because of the rate reset,' he added. 'The cash buyers, not impacted by mortgage rate changes, remain elevated.'

Properties typically remained on the market for 17 days in April, equal to both the number of days in March 2022 and in April 2021. Eighty-eight percent of homes sold in April 2022 were on the market for less than a month.

First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in April, down from 30% in March and from 31% in April 2021.

All-cash sales accounted for 26% of transactions in April, down from 28% in March and up from the 25% recorded in April 2021.

Distressed sales --
foreclosures and short sales -- represented less than 1% of sales in April, equal to the percentage seen in March and down from 2% in April 2021.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 4.98% in April, up from 4.17% in March. The average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%.

Realtor.com®'s Market Trends Report in April shows that the largest year-over-year median list price growth occurred in Miami (+38.3%), Las Vegas (+32.6%), and Orlando (+30.7%). Austin reported the highest growth in the share of homes that had their prices reduced compared to last year (+6.8 percentage points), followed by Las Vegas (+5.3 percentage points) and Sacramento (+4.7 percentage points).
.."

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INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales During April 2022
INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
During April 2022


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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 13, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 13, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -65,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 420,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Housing Starts During April 2022

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for April 2022:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,780,000
Actual: 1,724,000

Change From Previous Month: -0.231% (-4,000 New Units)

  • Change From One Year Previous: +14.551% (+219,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,850,000
Actual: 1,819,000

Change From Previous Month: -3.193% (-60,000 New Permits)

  • Change From One Year Previous: +3.06%  (+54,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.


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CHART: Housing Starts + Building Permits + Completions - April 2022 Update

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
April 2022 Update

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Tuesday, May 17, 2022

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for April 2022

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for April 2022:

Predicted: +0.5%
  • Actual: +0.903% (+$6,063,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

  • Estimated Retail Sales During April 2022: $677,711,000,000
  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.186% (+$51,281,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - April 2022 Update

CHART: Retail Sales - April 2022 Update

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Saturday, May 14, 2022

May 13, 2022 Stock Market Correction Update

May 13, 2022 Stock Market Correction Update

The NASDAQ Composite Index sinks further into bear market territory, while the DJIA and S&P 500 continue lower into the correction zone.


Since Record-Highs:
-- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -12.508% (-4,602.99 points) -- NASDAQ Composite: -26.483% (-4,252.44 points) -- S&P 500: -16.109% (-772.67 points) MORE: >>
bit.ly/Dow-History <<


MORE: >> http://bit.ly/NASDAQ-History
<<


MORE: >> http://bit.ly/SP500-History
<<


MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/djia-chart-history.htm <<


MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm
<<


MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/nasdaq-composite-history-chart.htm
<<

  

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Friday, May 13, 2022

Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for May 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) -  Preliminary Results for May 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 61.0
  • Actual: 59.1
=========

  • Change from Previous Month: -9.36% (-6.1 points)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -28.71% (-23.8 points)

=========

  • Final ICS Reading for April 2022: 65.2

  • Final ICS Reading for May 2021: 82.9

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumer sentiment declined by 9.4% from April, reversing gains realized that month. These declines were broad based -- for current economic conditions as well as consumer expectations, and visible across income, age, education, geography, and political affiliation -- continuing the general downward trend in sentiment over the past year. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation relative to a year ago is at its lowest reading since 2013, with 36% of consumers attributing their negative assessment to inflation. Buying conditions for durables reached its lowest reading since the question began appearing on the monthly surveys in 1978, again primarily due to high prices.

The median expected year-ahead
inflation rate was 5.4%, little changed over the last three months, and up from 4.6% in May 2021. The mean was considerably higher at 7.4%, reflecting substantial variation in price changes across types of goods and services, and in household spending patterns. At the same time, long term inflation expectations remain well-anchored with a median of 3.0%, settling within the 2.9 to 3.1% range seen over the last 10 months..."

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CHART: Consumer Sentiment - Monthly and 3-Month Moving Average - May 2022 PRELIMINARY

CHART: Consumer Sentiment
Monthly and 3-Month Moving Average
May 2022 PRELIMINARY

 
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The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:


  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"


  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"


  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"


  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"


  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2022

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for April 2022:

===============

Import Prices
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: FLAT / UNCHANGED

Change From 12 Months Previous: +12.0%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.6%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +18.0%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.


Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 7, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 7, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

  • Actual: 203,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 202,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 192,750

====================

From Today's Report

  • "...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.0 percent for the week ending April 30, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 30 was 1,343,000, a decrease of 44,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since January 3, 1970 when it was 1,332,000. The previous week's level was revised up 3,000 from 1,384,000 to 1,387,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,385,000, a decrease of 32,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 31, 1970 when it was 1,374,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 1,417,000 to 1,417,750..."


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Thursday, May 12, 2022

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2022

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2022 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +11.0%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.7%
Actual: +0.6%

Change from 12 months previous:  +6.9%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

==============


CHART: Producer Price Index | Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12 Month Percent Changes - April 2022 Update

CHART: Producer Price Index | Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12 Month Percent Changes
April 2022 Update

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 6, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 6, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +8,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -60,500,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 424,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2022:


=========================================

CPI During April 2022: 289.109

=========================================


Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.558% (+1.605 points)

  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.259% (+22.055 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During April 2021: 267.054

=========================================

 


=========================================



CHART: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Fuel Oil + Gasoline (All Types) 12-Month Percent Change - April 2022 Update

CHART: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Fuel Oil + Gasoline (All Types)
12-Month Percent Change
April 2022 Update

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April 2022

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index for April 2022:

=========

Predicted: 94.0
Actual: 93.2

  • Change from Previous Month: UNCHANGED
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -6.613% (-6.6 points.)


=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - April 2022 Update

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
April 2022 Update 
=========
 
CHART: NFIB Small Business Earnings Last 3 Months - April 2022 Update

CHART: NFIB Small Business Earnings
Last 3 Months
April 2022 Update
=========

From Today's Report:

"...The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was unchanged in April, remaining at 93.2 and the fourth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased one point to a net negative 50%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year-old survey.

Inflation continues to be a problem for small businesses with 32% of small business owners reporting it’s their single most important problem in operating their business, the highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1980.

'Small business owners are struggling to deal with inflation pressures,' said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'The labor supply is not responding strongly to small businesses’ high wage offers and the impact of inflation has significantly disrupted business operations.'


Key Findings Include:

    -- Forty-seven percent of owners reported
job openings that could not be filled, unchanged from March.

    -- The net percent of owners raising average selling prices decreased two points to a net 70% (seasonally adjusted), two points below last month’s highest reading.

    -- The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher increased six points from March to a net negative 12%.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, small businesses continue to struggle to find workers to fill open positions with 47% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period. Of those hiring or trying to hire, 93% of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill..."


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  • Small business survey questions can be found at the end of today's report.
  • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
=========

The previous month's Small Business Optimism Index was 93.2.

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Monday, May 09, 2022

May 6, 2022 Stock Market Correction Update

May 6, 2022 Stock Market Correction Update

Right now, the NASDAQ Composite Index is in bear market territory, while the DJIA and S&P 500 are both in correction.


Since Record-Highs:
-- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -10.599% (-3,900.28 points) -- NASDAQ Composite: -24.367% (-3,912.78 points) -- S&P 500: -14.035% (-673.22 points) MORE: >>
bit.ly/Dow-History <<


MORE: >> http://bit.ly/NASDAQ-History
<<


MORE: >> http://bit.ly/SP500-History
<<


MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/djia-chart-history.htm <<


MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm
<<


MORE: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/nasdaq-composite-history-chart.htm
<<

  

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Friday, May 06, 2022

Employment Situation Report for April 2022

The Employment Situation Report for April 2022 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +428,000
Previous Month (Revised): 428,000
One Year Previous: 263,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.6%
Previous Month: 3.6%
12 Months Previous: 6.0%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.0%
Previous Month: 6.9%
12 Months Previous: 10.3%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.315% (+$0.10)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +5.464% (+$1.65)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.315% (+$3.46)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.56% (+$48.03)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.2%
Previous Month: 62.4%
12 Months Previous: 61.7%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.7 hours
Actual: 34.6 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

From Today's Report:

"...In April, 7.7% of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 10% in the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey specifically because of the pandemic.

In April, 1.7 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic -- that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 2.5 million in the previous month. Among those who reported in April that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 19% received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little different from the prior month.

Among those not in the labor force in April, 586,000 persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic, down from 874,000 in the prior month. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 428,000 in April. Job gains were widespread, with the largest gains occurring in leisure and hospitality, in
manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing. However, nonfarm employment is down by 1.2 million, or 0.8%, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

The change in total nonfarm payroll
employment for February was revised down by 36,000, from +750,000 to +714,000, and the change for March was revised down by 3,000, from +431,000 to +428,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 39,000 lower than previously reported..."
===================
 

CHART: Nonfarm Payroll Employment - April 2022 Update

CHART: Nonfarm Payroll Employment
April 2022 Update


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CHART: U-3 (Headline) Unemployment Rate - April 2022 Update

CHART: U-3 (Headline) Unemployment Rate
April 2022 Update

 
   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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