New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 12, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 12, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 215,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 224,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 220,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for March 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for March 2025:

=================

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: +1.43% (+10,335,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During March 2025: $734,870,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +4.6% (+$32,350,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru March 2025
MARCH 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for March 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for March 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.2%
Actual: -0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +0.9%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.0%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.5%
Actual: FLAT

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.4%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.1%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
MARCH 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

MARCH 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 11, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 11, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -17,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 442,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for April 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for April 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0

• Actual: 50.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -10.88% (-6.2 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -34.2% (-26.4 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for April 2024: 77.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March. This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation. Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year.

Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month.

The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009. This lack of labor market confidence lies in sharp contrast to the past several years, when robust spending was supported primarily by strong labor markets and incomes. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between March 25 and April 8, closing prior to the April 9 tariff partial reversal.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.7% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents..."

=========

CHART: Share of Consumers Expecting
Rising unemployment Up Five Straight Months;
Highest Since 2009 - APRIL 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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April 11, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

April 11, 2025: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite Indexes all finished the week in correction...

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -10.67% (-4,801.33 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -17.1% (-3,449.43 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -12.71% (-780.79 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: Dow Jones Industrial Average
 April 11, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 65% (somewhat likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025, with 35% odds for a 25 basis point rate cut.

Stay tuned...

===============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 5, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 5, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 223,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (unrevised): 219,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 223,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2025:

=========================================

CPI During March 2025: 319.799

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.2%

->  Actual: +0.225% (+0.717 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.39% (+7.467 points)

[prior = +2.82%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.2%

 - > Actual: +0.209% (+0.681 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.79% (+8.845 points)

[prior = +3.12%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During March 2024: 312.332

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
MARCH 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================   

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 4, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 4, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +2,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 442,300,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for MARCH 2025

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for March 2025:
=========

Predicted: 98.0

• Actual: 97.4

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -3.28 % (-3.3 points.)

• Change from A Year Ago: +10.06 % (+8.9 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
MARCH 2025 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 100.7

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 88.5

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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April 4, 2025 Stock Market | Bear Market / Market Correction Update

April 4, 2025: The NASDAQ Composite Index ended the week in BEAR-MARKET territory, while the DJIA + S&P 500 Indexes slid closer to it...

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -14.88% (-6,699.18 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -22.73% (-4,586.10 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -17.42% (-1,070.07 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 April 4, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 70% (somewhat likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

===============

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for March 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for March 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During March 2025: 275,240

• Previous Month: 172,017

 > Change from previous month: +60.00% (+103,223 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 90,309
  

> Change from one-year previous: +204.76% (+184,931 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...'Job cut announcements were dominated last month by Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] plans to eliminate positions in the federal government. It would have otherwise been a fairly quiet month for layoffs,' Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

 -------------

Government & DOGE

The Government led all sectors in job cuts in March with 216,215, all of which occurred in the federal government. So far this year, the Government has cut 279,445, an increase of 672% from the 36,195 cuts announced in the first quarter of 2024.

In March of 2024, the previous administration announced plans to cut 10,000 from the Veterans Affairs and 24,000 from the United States Army. Prior to March 2024, the highest monthly total for the sector occurred in September 2011, when Government entities cut 54,182, primarily on an announcement to cut 50,000 positions in the U.S. Army. This sector cut a total of 15,584 cuts between 2021 and 2023 after cutting 78,323 jobs in all of 2020. Unlike March 2025, these cuts were a mixture of federal, state, and local government positions.

Why are Companies Cutting?

'DOGE Impact' leads job cut reasons this year with 280,253, 216,670 in March. Market/Economic Conditions followed with 47,851 job cuts attributed to this reason in the first quarter.

Another 45,761 job cuts were attributed to store, unit, or department Closing. Restructuring accounted for 39,396, while Bankruptcy was the reason for 35,501. Just 63 layoffs have been attributed specifically to tariffs so far this year, all in the Retail sector...."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Challenger Report - Announced Jobs Cuts
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

================

Job Cuts by Reason - USA
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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Employment Situation Report for March 2025

The Employment Situation Report for March 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +228,000

Previous Month (revised): 117,000
One Year Previous: 246,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 8.0%
12 Months Previous: 7.3%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.25% (+$0.09)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.84% (+$1.33)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.25% (+$3.08)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.23% (+$38.55)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
MARCH 2005 THRU MARCH 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for February 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,600,000

• Actual:   7,568,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,762,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,445,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -10.38% (-877,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,396,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -4.73% (-268,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,195,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -7.87% (-273,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,790,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +6.48% (+109,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,261,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.93% (-215,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
FEBRUARY 2010 thru FEBRUARY 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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March 28, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

March 28, 2025: The NASDAQ Composite Index ended the week in correction territory (CT) again, while the S&P 500 Index slid closer to CT...

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -7.62% (-3,430.14 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -14.13% (-2,850.90 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -9.17% (563.21 points) - CHART

===========

 CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 March 28, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• The Fed is likely (current odds at 85%) to do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

===============

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): -0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.8%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.5%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

=====================

CHART: Disposable Personal Income,
Outlays and Savings
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

 =====================

 

Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): FINAL Estimate for Q4, 2024 + Full Year 2024

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third and final estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024, and the full-year reading on GDP:

============

Previous quarter: +3.1%

• Actual: +2.4%
  
• >>>> Full Year: +2.8%
  

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: Contributions to real GDP
by Industry Group - Q4, 2024

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 22, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 22, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 224,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 225,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 224,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 21, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 21, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 433,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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