Gross Domestic Product (GDP): THIRD / FINAL Estimate for Q2, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its FINAL estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026:

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Previous quarter: +2.5%

• Actual: +2.2%

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GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: Contributions to Percent

Change in Real GDP by Industry Group

Q2, 2026 - FINAL ESTIMATE

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 17, 2026

Jobless Claims

The Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on October 17, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 198,000

• Actual: 194,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 200,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 197,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Leading Economic Index for SEPTEMBER 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September, 2026:

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Index for September, 2026: 99.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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• Actual: FLAT 
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: +1.32% (+1.3 points)

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• LEI for August, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for July, 2026: 99.7
   
• LEI for June, 2026: 99.4
  
  
• LEI for May, 2026: 99.4
   
• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  

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The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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SEPTEMBER 2026 UPDATE

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI was flat in September. However, due to an upward revision to July’s data, the Index is at a higher level than last month’s report for August,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Five out of ten components made positive contributions to the LEI in September, led by the interest rate spread and average weekly hours in manufacturing.

Nevertheless, these gains were offset by a large decline in consumer expectations and much smaller negative contributions from stock prices, new orders for capital goods and building permits.

The LEI’s six-month growth rate increased slightly, which suggests the economy is still growing and will continue to grow, but is becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment. The Conference Board now expects real GDP to grow by a 2.2% annualized rate in 2026, with our outlook for 2027 at 2.0%, higher than previously forecasted.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.3% in September 2026 to 115.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in August. Overall, the CEI rose by 0.9% over the six months between March and September 2026, up from its 0.2% growth over the previous six months. 

The CEI’s four component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI made positive contributions last month..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During September 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for September, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.1%
Actual: +0.7% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +2.2%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): -0.2%
Actual: +0.3% M/M

• Y/Y : +1.1%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +0.9%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (revised): 76.4%
Actual:  76.9% 

• Y/Y : +1.2%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.2

===============

CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
SEPTEMBER 2026 UPDATE

 

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• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

==============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending October 16, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 16, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -3,400,000 Barrels (-0.49%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -136,200,000 Barrels (-16.38%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 695,200,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW

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Housing Starts During SEPTEMBER 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department released its Housing Starts report for September, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,288,000

• Actual: 1,221,000

Month-on-Month Change: -5.2% (-67,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -7.43% (-98,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,403,000

• Actual: 1,400,000

Month-on-Month Change: -0.21% (-3,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -3.05%  (-44,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
SEPTEMBER, 2026 UPDATE

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for SEPTEMBER 2026

The Commerce Department has released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for SEPTEMBER, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.29% (+$9,407,000,000)

• Actual: +0.77% (+$5,699,000,000)

================= 

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During September: $745,021,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +6.29% (+$44,073,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

January 2006 Thru September 2026
SEPTEMBER 2026 UPDATE
=================

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================   

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 10, 2026

Jobless Claims

The Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on October 10, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 199,000

• Actual: 199,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 198,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 198,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for SEPTEMBER 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for September, 2026:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading (revised)*: +0.5%
Actual: +1.1%

• Change From 12-Months Previous: +8.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +6.7%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading (revised)*: +1.2%
Actual: +2.2%

• Change From 12-Months Previous: +11.6%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading* = +9.3%

===============
 

* = Revised data.  

 

The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

SEPTEMBER, 2026 Update

================= 

 

CHART: Export Price Index

SEPTEMBER, 2026 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for SEPTEMBER 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for SEPTEMBER, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +1.3%

Change from 12-months previous:  +6.3% 
(prior - revised = +5.6%)

===============================

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.3% 

• Actual: +0.5%

Change from 12-months previous:  +5.0% 
(prior - unrevised = +4.8%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +9.8% (prior = +7.7%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.9% (prior = +4.7%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index

  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
SEPTEMBER 2026 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending October 9, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 9, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -8,500,000 Barrels (-1.2%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -132,900,000 Barrels (-15.98%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 698,600,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for SEPTEMBER 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, 2026:
=========================================

CPI During September, 2026: 336.940

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.59% (+1.96 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.74% (+12.14 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +3.4%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.37% (+1.246 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.56% (+8.483 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.45%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During September, 2025: 324.800

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
SEPTEMBER 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending October 2, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 2, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -4,000,000 Barrels (+0.56%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -120,100,000 Barrels (-14.52%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 707,100,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 3, 2026

Jobless Claims

The Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on October 3, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 199,000

• Actual: 197,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 199,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 198,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Employment Situation Report for SEPTEMBER 2026

The Employment Situation Report for September, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +29,000

Previous Month (revised): +133,000

One-Year Previous: +76,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12-Months Previous: 4.4%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.6%
Previous Month: 7.7%
12-Months Previous: 8.1%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.13% (+$0.05)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.2%
Actual: +3.02% (+$1.11)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.13% (+$1.72)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.63% (+$45.52)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8%
Previous Month: 61.6%
12-Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.4 hours
Previous Month: 34.4 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

SEPTEMBER 2006 thru SEPTEMBER 2026

   ===================

 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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