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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Saturday, July 02, 2022

July 1, 2022 Stock Market Bear | Correction Update

More bear for the NASDAQ Composite Index, bear for the S&P 500, while the DJIA slipped lower into correction.

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

-- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -15.5% (-5,702.39 points)

-- NASDAQ Composite: -30.7% (-4,929.59 points)

-- S&P 500: -20.25% (-971.23 points)

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DATA:
>> DJIA History <<

DATA:
>> NASDAQ History
<<
 

DATA: >> S & P 500 History <<

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CHART: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/djia-chart-history.htm <<


CHART: >> http://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm <<


CHART:
>> http://www.fedprimerate.com/nasdaq-composite-history-chart.htm
<<

 
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CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index - July 1, 2022 UPDATE


CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
July 1, 2022 UPDATE

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Thursday, June 30, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of June 24, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 24, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -36,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 415,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for May 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2022:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.4

  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.4%
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Personal Income

Predicted: +0.5
  • Actual: +0.5%
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  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%
  • Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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CHART: Month-On-Month Change In Consumer Spending May 2022 Update

 CHART: Month-On-Month Change In
Consumer Spending
May 2022 Update
 
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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +0.6% 

  • Change from 12 months previous: +6.3%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%
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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


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*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Final Estimate for Q1, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its final estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2022:

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Predicted: +1.5%

  • Actual: -1.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


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From Today's Report:

"...Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income increased $247.2 billion (revised) in the first quarter to a level of $21.26 trillion. In the fourth quarter, personal income increased $186.2 billion. The increase primarily reflected an increase in compensation that was partly offset by a decrease in government social benefits. In the first quarter, government assistance payments in the form of social benefits to households decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or continued to taper off.


Disposable personal income decreased $58.8 billion (revised), or 1.3 percent, in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $72.4 billion, or 1.6%, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 7.8% (revised), compared with a decrease of 4.5%. Personal saving was $1.02 trillion in the first quarter (revised), compared with $1.45 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.6% (revised) in the first quarter, compared with 7.9% in the fourth quarter..."

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - Final Estimate

CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - Final Estimate
 
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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2022

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 99.0
  • Actual: 98.7

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Previous Month (revised): 103.2

  • Change from Previous Month: -4.36% (-4.5 points)
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...Index Drops to Lowest Level Since February 2021 as Expectations Continue to Decline

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in June, following a decline in May. The Index fell to 98.7 (1985=100)—down 4.5 points from 103.2 in May -- and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021 (Index, 95.2). The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- declined marginally to 147.1 from 147.4 last month. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- decreased sharply to 66.4 from 73.7 and is at its lowest level since March 2013 (Index, 63.7).

'Consumer confidence fell for a second consecutive month in June,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'While the Present Situation Index was relatively unchanged, the Expectations Index continued its recent downward trajectory -- falling to its lowest point in nearly a decade. Consumers’ grimmer outlook was driven by increasing concerns about inflation, in particular rising gas and food prices. Expectations have now fallen well below a reading of 80, suggesting weaker growth in the second half of 2022 as well as growing risk of recession by year-end.'

'Purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances held relatively steady -- but intentions have cooled since the start of the year and this trend is likely to continue as the Fed aggressively raises interest rates to tame inflation. Meanwhile, vacation plans softened further as rising prices took their toll. Looking ahead over the next six months, consumer spending and economic growth are likely to continue facing strong headwinds from further inflation and rate hikes.'
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Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.


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CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - June 2022 Update

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
June 2022 Update


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Saturday, June 25, 2022

June 24, 2022 Stock Market Bear | Correction Update

The NASDAQ Composite Index held firm in the bear market zone, while the DJIA and S&P 500 remained in correction.

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

-- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -14.4% (-5,298.97 points)

-- NASDAQ Composite: -27.71% (-4,449.82 points)

-- S&P 500: -18.45% (-884.82 points)

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CHART: S & P 500 Index - June 24, 2022 UPDATE

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