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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Wednesday, September 02, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending August 28, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 28, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -7,500,000 Barrels (-1.04%)

Δ from 1-Year Previous: -114,300,000 Barrels (-13.85%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 711,100,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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U.S. Factory Shipments (New Orders) During JULY 2026

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and New Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for July, 2026:

========

Predicted: FLAT

  • Actual: -6.57% (-45,671,000,000)

========

  • July, 2026 New Orders: $650,001,000,000.

  • June, 2026 New Orders: $695,672,000,000.


========

  • Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):

    +$61,282,000,000 (+10.41%) 

 ========

The highlighted percentages represent the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers; n
ot seasonally adjusted.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders - JULY 2026 Update (seasonally adjusted.)
CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
JULY 2026 Update
(
seasonally adjusted.)

=============


=============

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ISM Manufacturing Index for AUGUST 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for August 2026:

=========

  • Actual: 54.6% (-1.0 point month-on-month)

=========

Previous month: 55.6%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S.
manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the eighth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
.."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

  • "...'The economy is annoying; it is getting in the way of otherwise good business. We are making great new products but struggling to compete when prices escalate due to things like tariffs and the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. I fear that the inflation caused by these factors will lead to lower sales and lower spending power of our customers. Call it inflation! At some point, it leads to an economic downturn or at least an economic pain for many consumers. It’s an uncertain year, our second in a row.'
     [Chemical Products]
  • 'For our building products division, profitability is not far off from last year despite economic headwinds, as our specialty products have maintained their market share and sales. Specific to IT, the rising costs in component inputs have caused some budgetary constraints as we plan for the 2027 fiscal year. However, we largely been able to keep costs close to historic consumer price index averages.'
     [Chemical Products]
     
  • 'Supply chain situation, especially in the electronics market, is going through another crisis even bigger and more complicated than during and post COVID-19. That’s mainly due to AI infrastructure and uncertainties in the global market (for oil and other critical supplies) due to war in the Middle East and more complication on trade rules.'
     [Computer + Electronic Products]
     
  • 'Supply markets are increasingly challenging due to inflation and supply availability. Each month has been more difficult than the previous one. Starting to resemble the post-COVID-19 disruptive period.'
     [Computer + Electronic Products]
     
  • 'Photonics, high speed connectors, semiconductors and government orders are expanding significantly. Supply chains domestically and globally are difficult, with increases in lead times and cost.'
     [Machinery]
     
  • 'Commentary this month echoes that of recent months: (1) significant availability/price challenges in commodities heavily consumed by AI, (2) great uncertainty over when the Iran [invasion] will end, and (3) another round of shifting U.S. tariff policy. Despite these tensions, we continue to focus on what we can control, and the market for our products remains strong.'
     [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
     
  • 'This month is a blur: Steel prices continue to climb as supply diminishes, aluminum is rising after dropping, and there are many holes on the plate side. Demand seems to be a seesaw. Our prediction ability continues to diminish, with the exception that the year will remain difficult until the end.'
     [Primary Metals]
     
  • 'High steel and aluminum prices (due to Section 232 tariffs) continue to make profitability a challenge. Uncertainty over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is at the forefront of many customer conversations. Our industry has also been hit with countervailing and anti-dumping penalties, further raising the cost of equipment.'
     [Transportation Equipment]
     
  • 'Volume is consistent. Our main customer is shifting production from U.S. plants to Mexico plants.'
     [Transportation Equipment]..."

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index - AUGUST 2026 Update
CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
AUGUST 2026 Update
=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index 12-Month History - AUGUST 2026 Update
DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
AUGUST 2026 Update
=========

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Tuesday, September 01, 2026

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for JULY 2026

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for July, 2026 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,200,000
  • Actual:   7,271,000
-------------------------

  • Previous Month (revised): 7,182,000

  • Change from Previous Month: +1.24% (+89,000)
     
  • One-Year Previous: 7,089,000

  • Change from One-Year Previous: +2.57% (+182,000)


=============

HIRES: 5,054,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: -3.27% (-171,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,056,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: -2.43% (-76,000)


-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,666,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.98% (-106,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS §: 5,072,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -1.9% (-98,000)

=============
 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:


"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted JULY 2011 thru JULY 2026
CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
JULY 2011 thru JULY 2026

=============

=============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): SECOND / PRELIMINARY Estimate for Q2, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its SECOND estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +2.1%

  • Actual: +1.5%

============


GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 
CHART: GDP - Percent Change from Previous Quarter Q2, 2026 - SECOND ESTIMATE
CHART: GDP - Percent Change from Previous Quarter
Q2, 2026 - SECOND ESTIMATE
============ 
 

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Friday, August 28, 2026

Durable Goods Orders During JULY 2026

The Durable Goods Orders report for July, 2026 was released by the Commerce Department:

================

  • New Orders: $339,250,000,000

    (+$36,709,000,000 [+12.9%]) Year-on-Year

================

CHART: Durable Goods Orders Month-on-Month Change JULY 2026 UPDATE (from Seasonally Adjusted Data)
CHART: Durable Goods Orders
Month-on-Month Change
JULY 2026 UPDATE
(from Seasonally Adjusted Data)

================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the y-o-y change in new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers (NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 22, 2026

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 22, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 205,000

  • Actual: 203,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 207,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 205,500

====================

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Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending August 21, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 21, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -3,600,000 Barrels (-0.5%)

Δ from 1-Year Previous: -103,900,000 Barrels (-12.63%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 718,600,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for JULY 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

  • Actual: +0.2%

  • > Real PCE: FLAT*
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading
 (unrevised)+0.2%

  • Actual: +0.4%

    • > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.5%

    • >> Real DPI: +0.4%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update 


PCE Price Index
Previous Reading 
(revised): -0.1%

  • Actual: +0.2% 
  • Change from 12-months previous: +3.7%
    (prior - unrevised = +3.7%)
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading 
(unrevised)+0.1%

  • Actual: +0.2%
  • Change from 12-months previous: +3.3%
    (prior - unrevised = +3.3%)
=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================
 
CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending - JULY 2026 UPDATE
CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
JULY 2026 UPDATE
=====================
*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for JULY 2026

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July, 2026:

==================

  • Actual (CFNAI): -0.08

==================

  • Previous Month (revised): +0.06
  • 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.04
==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and income;
  • Employment, unemployment, and hours;
  • Personal consumption and housing; and
  • Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================
 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles - JULY 2026 Update
CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
JULY 2026 Update

===================


Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================



==================

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for JULY 2026

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for July, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 99.0

  • Actual: 99.8

----------------

  • Change from Previous Month: +2.46% (+2.4 points.)
  • Change from A Year Ago: -0.5% (-0.5 point.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - JULY 2026 Update
CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
JULY 2026 Update 

=========

  • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
=========
 
From The Report:
 
"...MEMBER QUOTES

Labor:

We struggle to find skilled labor/trades.” – Construction, NY

“The ability to find/hire competent workers in the HVAC field is increasingly more difficult year to year. It is absolutely necessary to help promote and fund the mechanical trades, particularly the HVAC trade!” –
Construction, CT

Labor is a challenge. We currently rely on older or retired help. […]” – Retail, PA

“Very hard to find skilled machinists who still know manual machines.” – Manufacturing, OH

This is the worst period for hiring skilled labor. I have positions open today that pay well with benefits, but there aren’t any qualified candidates. I have used Indeed, ZipRecruiter, social media, banners, website, etc.”
– Retail, PA

“Finding or having qualified skilled labor applicants is nonexistent.” – Services, SC

“Forty-eight years in business for myself, and the toughest issue has been finding good people to hire and how to compensate them fairly. Health insurance is a disaster – costs more and pays less. Employees want more compensation for less work/production. To keep this trend going we must find easier ways to do tough jobs and charge higher prices with stiff compensation.” – Services, NC

“In the transportation industry it’s very hard right now to find help. I’ve had three trucks out of twelve sitting idle for six months now. I can find drivers, but they aren’t drivers I trust.” – Transportation, IL

Unskilled labor shortage is our biggest problem. […]” – Agriculture, NC

“We are highly seasonal as a farm and do not have steady income. Every year is different depending on market conditions, crop (apple) size, and import/export options… We have a severe labor shortage, which many of us have turned to the federal H-2A program to meet our needs. Labor is now greater than 50% of our input costs due to the rise in benefits, overtime, paid sick days, and base wage rates.” – Agriculture, NY

“Our biggest problem is that we cannot find qualified, skilled employees.” – Agriculture, MN

“Finding and retaining good employees is our biggest challenge. It has never been easy but declined substantially during COVID, and even though it has improved since then, it is still something that our
manager spends way too much time on and it affects all areas of our business.” – Manufacturing, VA

“Our biggest obstacle is finding technicians with experience. It is also difficult to find office employees. Most [people] we hire off the street do not last. [They] miss a lot of work.” – Construction, AZ

“Engineers generally do not go looking for better jobs as much as [those] in other fields. They tend to sit tight and not rock the boat. We are trying to hire an experienced engineer or two, but they just aren’t out there. So we are being forced to hire engineers out of school or inexperienced.” – Professional/business services, OH

“Biggest issue in our industry is the lack of skilled workers on our job sites, in our fabrication shops, and with our suppliers.” – Construction, IN

“Business is good. Hoping for everything to get better and for costs not to continue to rise as they have been. The labor workforce is getting slim, and [it] seems like quality people are getting harder to find in
labor fields.” – Services, TX

“We have a weird situation where I can get more unskilled labor than I need. But I am unable to fill a skilled operator with higher pay, better hours, and better benefits. No one is even willing to accept a promotion.” –Agriculture, IL

Inflation:

“Farming is in a pinch right now with the high prices of our inputs fertilizer, fuel, chemicals, and taxes).” – Agriculture, IN

“Labor, fuel, and insurance have all gone up. [We are] having a hard time raising rates to keep up with the cost of doing business.” – Transportation, CA

“We have a trucking company and a grain farm. The cost of fuel alone is killing us. Fertilizer for the farm is out of this world. Something has to give soon or we’re going to be the ones giving up everything.” –
Transportation, PA

“In farming we are experiencing very high input costs coupled with low commodity prices which have impacted our margins! Farm equipment prices have increased by over 300% in the past 15 years, making it
almost impossible to purchase new equipment. The farmer suffers while we purchase our supplies/equipment from monopolies that are making record profits. Those companies that purchase our commodities have become monopolies as well!” – Agriculture, TX

Worried about the economy due to inflation. Our guests do not have the disposable income they had a few years ago. […]” – Services, OH

“Most businesses can at least pass on increases for products. Agriculture saw huge increases in fuel and fertilizer costs. Our commodities are mainly priced by the Chicago Board of Trade, and I have no way of
passing on these increased expenses, leaving myself and the larger agriculture community with the very real possibility of negative margins on our 2026 crops.” – Agriculture, PA

“The costs of materials and employees are up.” – Construction, UT

“Inflation is an issue – not sure how much inventory to order. Taxes force business to make out-of-ordinary decisions. Inflation is a detriment to employees – can’t pay them enough nowadays and getting harder to pass expenses along. Economy appears strong on Wall Street but weak on Main Street.” – Retail, IL

“The cost of interest, insurance, power (gas/electric), supplies, and vehicle gas is drowning my business. Small businesses need help!” – Services, MI

“The marine industry has doubled standard inflation. Over the past seven years, with many OEMs adding another 5-7% for the 2027 model year. We are pricing ourselves out of the market with the other economic pressures (high interest rates and debt, high grocery prices, high fuel prices, etc.).” – Retail, OR

Unfortunately, the cost to operate has almost reached the point that we cannot make a profit because labor and parts markup cannot keep up with the expenses of all insurances, taxes, overhead, payroll, truck payment, and shop payment.” – Services, AL

“The economy seems to be in a weird, uncertain place currently. People are spending, but wages are moving slow.” – Construction, IL

“The inflation caused by tariffs has significantly affected our business. Our customer accounts are struggling to pay their invoices, which amounts to approximately 20-30% of our gross profit.” – Retail, TN

Business Conditions:

“Our business has been slow the past two years due to inflation of gas, oil, and groceries. And people are choosing not to repair their swimming pools, which is not considered a priority, or having their iron gates
and fences built.” – Services, AR

“Overall business has been steady and very busy.” – Manufacturing, OH

The economy is killing us. Work is slow.” – Transportation, OH

“There is a noticeable shift in customers’ behavior – much more price sensitive and questioning all invoices. Many of our large customers have moved out of the area or gone out of business. This leaves fewer customers for us and our competitors to service (we are a regional B2B provider). There is not enough business for us all, so we are working hard to keep or gain as much as we can.” – Wholesale, NY

“Insurance premiums, fuel and utilities, and a lack of skilled labor are having a negative impact on our business.” – Services, OH

“The economy is affecting our bottom line. The trend in healthcare, with insurers paying for less and putting more burden on consumers, is the biggest problem facing all healthcare providers.” – Professional/business services, VA

“Business is fairly robust in our area. The large majority of our clients (small businesses) are profitable.” – Professional/business services, GA

The economy has definitely slowed business. If it’s a question of filling up your car with gas to go to work, putting food on the table, or buying a new appliance just because you want a change in your kitchen, I think we all know which is coming in last. Appliances are replaced when they break down and then mostly from the least expensive place (big-box stores).” – Retail, IL

“Our business is down 15.5% year to date from last year and 28% down from our 5-year average. Rising costs of materials and freight have made us go up in our pricing. Competition is tough as everyone is
willing to go down on their margins to get customers. Our walk-in traffic has diminished tremendously. Our expenses have skyrocketed, and insurance and health insurance are now unaffordable.” – Retail, TX

“Things are slow but the same! Clients are passing away or thinking they can do our job themselves. But they always come back because they realize they can’t or they get in trouble with the different agencies for doing the paperwork or reports wrong. It’s a cycle!” – Professional/business services, AZ

“Business is good, but state regulations are making it harder. Also, the prices of goods are out of reach for most of our customers.” – Construction, NY

Sales:

“I have found it harder to increase sales above what we have. Although we have grossed more year to date, we are basically operating at a zero-profit margin. Overall the cost of everything has increased, in response we raised our prices – but are just breaking even.” – Services, CA

“The internet (do-it-yourself videos) has impacted my bottom line.” – Services, OH

Retail sales numbers continue to decline. Customer count is down as more people are purchasing online and not visiting brick-and-mortar stores. Landscape division numbers are down. Customers have less money to spend due to inflation; customer confidence is down.” – Retail, IA

Insurance:

“Our insurance costs have been a burden for several years. Increasing at a rate we can barely keep up with – most notably auto. And windstorms are also a concern. I believe the whole Texas costs (including Houston) should all share this expense, as this whole area is impacted by hurricanes.” – Manufacturing, TX

Health insurance out of control.” – Professional/business services, OH

============

CREDIT MARKETS

In July, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions rose 1 point to a net -4% (seasonally adjusted). A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, up 2 points from June. In July, a net 4% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 1 point from June. The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.9% in July, up 0.5 point from June’s lowest level since October 2022. Twenty-seven percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, up 5 points from June, but remaining below the historical average of 34%.

INFLATION

Though still high, the inflation metrics showed substantial improvement in July. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 7 points from June to a net 31% (seasonally adjusted), after four consecutive months of increases. Actual price increases are well above the historical average of net 14%. Unadjusted, 40% reported higher average prices (down 7 points), and 8% reported lower average selling prices (up 1 point). As actual price increases decreased in July, so did the share of owners planning to raise prices in the near future. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, down 4 points from June. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem fell for the first time this year. Fourteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, down 7 points from June’s highest reading since October 2024. Inflation now ranks as the third top problem..."

=========

  • Previous Month's SBOI: 97.4
  • SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 100.3
=========

=========

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Monday, August 24, 2026

Leading Economic Index for JULY 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July, 2026:

==============

Index for July, 2026: 99.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

  • Actual: +0.2% (+0.2 point Month-on-Month)

    • Change from 12 Months Ago: +0.71% (+0.7 point)

============== 

  • LEI for June, 2026: 99.3

  • LEI for May, 2026: 99.4
     
  • LEI for April, 2026: 99.2

  • LEI for March, 2026: 99.0

  • LEI for February2026: 99.6

  • LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
        
  • LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   

  • LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  

  • LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
     
  • LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
     
  • LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 

  • LEI for July, 2025: 98.8

  • LEI for June, 2025: 98.8

==============

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™
==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signal - JULY 2026 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JULY 2026 UPDATE
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From Today's Report:

"....'The Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index. With the most recent gains, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead. The economy should keep expanding, but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households. Consequently, The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in July 2026 to 114.8 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in June. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.5% over the six months between January and July 2026, after remaining flat over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI, except for payroll employment, made positive contributions last month.
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