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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, January 27, 2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q4, 2021

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2021:

============

Predicted: +6.0%

  • Actual: +6.9%

  • Real Consumer Spending: +3.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


============

From Today's Report:

"...COVID-19 Impact On The Fourth-Quarter 2021 GDP Estimate

The increase in fourth quarter GDP reflected the continued economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the fourth quarter, COVID-19 cases resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off..."

"...Personal saving was $1.34 trillion in the fourth quarter, compared with $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 7.4% in the fourth quarter, compared with 9.5% in the third quarter..."

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: GDP - Q4 2021 - First Estimate

 CHART: GDP - Q4 2021 - First Estimate
 
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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 22, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 22, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 255,000

  • Actual: 260,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 290,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 247,000

====================

From Today's Report

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending January 15, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 15 was 1,675,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 11,000 from 1,635,000 to 1,624,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,651,750, a decrease of 10,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since August 18, 1973 when it was 1,646,750. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,750 from 1,664,250 to 1,662,500..."


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Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for January 2022

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (January 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 111.0
  • Actual: 113.8

================

Previous Month (revised): 115.2

  • Change from Previous Month: -1.215% (-1.4 points)
================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence moderated in January, following gains in the final three months of 2021,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index improved, suggesting the economy entered the new year on solid footing. However, expectations about short-term growth prospects weakened, pointing to a likely moderation in growth during the first quarter of 2022. Nevertheless, the proportion of consumers planning to  purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances over the next six months all increased.' 'Meanwhile, concerns about inflation declined for the second straight month, but remain elevated after hitting a 13-year high in November 2021. Concerns about the pandemic increased slightly, amid the ongoing Omicron surge. Looking ahead, both confidence and consumer spending may continue to be challenged by rising prices and the ongoing pandemic.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.


When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.


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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) - January 2022 Update

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
January 2022 Update

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for December 2021

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for December 2021:

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Predicted: +0.10
  • Actual (CFNAI): -0.15

==================

  • Previous Month (revised): +0.44
  • 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.33
==================


The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

  • Production and income;
  • Employment, unemployment, and hours;
  • Personal consumption and housing; and
  • Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================


CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index December 2021 Update
CHART: Chicago Fed National Activity Monthly Index
December 2021 Update

==================


CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles - December 2021 Update

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
December 2021 Update

 ====================


From Today's Report

"...Index Suggests Economic Growth Declined In December

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December, and all four categories deteriorated from November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.33 in December from +0.40 in November..
."

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Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

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Monday, January 24, 2022

Leading Economic Index for December 2021

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December 2021 this morning:

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Index for December 2021: 120.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: +1.0%
  • Actual: +0.751% (+0.9 point)

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  • LEI for November 2021: 119.9

  • LEI for October 2021: 119.1

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index - December 2021 Update
CHART: Leading Economic Index
December 2021 Update

==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI ended 2021 on a rising trajectory, suggesting the economy will continue to expand well into the spring,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'For the first quarter, headwinds from the Omicron variant , labor shortages, and inflationary pressures -- as well as the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate hikes -- may moderate economic growth. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth for Q1 2022 to slow to a relatively healthy 2.2 percent (annualized). Still, for all of 2022, we forecast the US economy will expand by a robust 3.5 percent, well above the pre-pandemic trend growth.'..."

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Thursday, January 20, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of January 14, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 14, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -72,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 413,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 15, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 15, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 250,000

  • Actual: 286,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 231,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 231,000

====================

From Today's Report

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending January 8, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 8 was 1,635,000, an increase of 84,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 8,000 from 1,559,000 to 1,551,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,664,250, a decrease of 55,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 27, 2019 when it was 1,663,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,000 from 1,721,500 to 1,719,500..."


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Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Housing Starts During December 2021

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for December 021:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,700,000
Actual: 1,702,000

Change From Previous Month: +1.43% (+24,000 New Units)
Change From One Year Previous: +2.47% (+41,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,800,000
Actual: 1,873,000

Change From Previous Month: +9.09% (+156,000 New permits)
Change From One Year Previous: +6.54%  (+115,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.


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CHART: Housing Starts - December 2021 Update

CHART: Housing Starts
December 2021 Update

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Monday, January 17, 2022

Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for January 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) -  Preliminary Results for January 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 70.0
  • Actual: 68.8
=========

  • Change from Previous Month: -2.55% (-1.8 points)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -12.911% (-10.2 points)

=========

  • Final ICS Reading for December 2021: 70.6

  • Final ICS Reading for January 2021: 79.0

=========

From today's report:

"...Sentiment posted a small loss in early January (-2.5%), falling to the second lowest level in a decade, which was recorded in November (67.4). The Sentiment Index has averaged just 70.3 in the past six months, whereas in the first six months of 2021 it averaged 82.9. While the Delta and Omicron variants certainly contributed to this downward shift, the decline was also due to an escalating inflation rate. Three-quarters of consumers in early January ranked inflation, compared with unemployment, as the more serious problem facing the nation. Given that inflation's impact is regressive, the Sentiment Index fell by 9.4% among households with total incomes below $100,000 in early January, but rose by 5.7% among households with incomes over that amount. The same split was observed for prospects for the national economy, with lower income households more negative, and higher income households holding a more positive outlook. Even among the more optimistic, they are still more likely to anticipate bad rather than good economic times in the year ahead. Importantly, confidence in government economic policies is at its lowest level since 2014. It will be a difficult task to gauge the appropriate mix of fiscal and monetary policies when such fine-tuning is necessary in an era of large economic and non-economic disruptions. The most crucial and difficult task will be defusing the developing wage-price spiral.

When asked to assess their finances, 33% reported being worse off financially than a year earlier, just above the April 2020 shutdown low of 32%, the worst reading since 2014. Twice as many households with incomes in the bottom third as in the top third reported worsening finances (40% vs. 20%). Inflationary erosion of living standards was the main explanation offered by these consumers. The importance of inflation in determining their future financial prospects was dominated by how consumers judged their future inflation-adjusted incomes (see the chart). Nearly half of all consumers (48%) anticipated that the inflation rate would outdistance income increases to produce real income declines. Just 17% anticipated real income gains in 2022.
.."

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CHART: Expected Change in Real Income and Personal Financial Situation in Year Ahead
CHART: Expected Change in Real Income
and Personal Financial Situation in Year Ahead

 =========



The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:


  1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"


  2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"


  3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"


  4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"


  5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"

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The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Friday, January 14, 2022

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for December 2021

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for December 2021:

Predicted: Unchanged
  • Actual: -1.914% (-$12,234,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

  • Estimated Retail Sales During December 2021: $626,833,000
  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +16.95% (+$90,848,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales - December 2021 Update

CHART: Retail Sales - December 2021 Update
 
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Thursday, January 13, 2022

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2021

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for December 2021 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +9.7%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous:  +6.9%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


==============

From Today's Report:

"...On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 9.7 percent in 2021, the largest calendar-year increase since data were first calculated in 2010..."

==============


CHART: Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) - December 2021 Update

CHART: Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD)
December 2021 Update

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Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of January 7, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 7, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -4,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -68,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 413,300,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2021

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2021:


=========================================

CPI During December 2021: 278.802

=========================================


Predicted: +1.0%
Actual: +0.307% (+0.854 points)

  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +7.036% (+18.328 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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CPI During December 2020: 260.474

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Tuesday, January 11, 2022

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December 2021

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index for December 2021:

=========

Predicted: 98.8
Actual: 98.9

  • Change from Previous Month: +0.508% (+0.5 point.)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: +3.128% (+3.0 points.)


=========


CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - December 2021 Update

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
December 2021 Update

=========

From today's report:

"...Small Business Owners Reporting Inflation as Biggest Problem Highest Since 1981

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in December to 98.9, up 0.5 points from November. Twenty-two percent of small business owners reported that
inflation was their single most important problem encountered in operating their business. Price raising activities has reached levels not seen since the early 1980’s when prices were rising at double digit rates.

'Small businesses unfortunately saw a disappointing December jobs report, with staffing issues continuing to impact their ability to be fully productive,' said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'Inflation is at the highest level since the 1980’s and is having an overwhelming impact on owners’ ability to manage their businesses.'

Key Findings Include:

 --   22% report inflation as the single most important problem operating their business, a 20-point increase from the beginning of 2021 and the highest level since Q4 1981.

 --   Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months increased three points to a net negative 35%. Owners remain pessimistic about future economic conditions as this indicator has declined 23 points over the past six months.

 --   49% of owners reported
job openings that could not be filled, an increase of one point from November..."

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  • Small business survey questions can be found at the end of today's report.
  • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
=========

The previous month's Small Business Optimism Index was 98.4.

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Friday, January 07, 2022

Employment Situation Report for December 2021

The Employment Situation Report for  December 2021 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +500,000
Previous Month (Revised): 249,000
Actual: +199,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.3%
Previous Month: 7.7%
12 Months Previous: 11.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.611% (+$0.19)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.681% (+$1.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.611% (+$6.60)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.681% (+$48.58)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.9%
Previous Month: 61.9%
12 Months Previous: 61.5%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.8 hours
Actual: 34.7 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

From Today's Report:

"...In December, the share of employed persons who teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic was 11.1 percent, little different from November. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked
or worked at home for pay at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey specifically because of the pandemic.

In December, 3.1 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic -- that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at
some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the
pandemic. This measure was down from the level of 3.6 million in November. Among those who reported in December that they were unable to
work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 15.9 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed from the prior month.

Among those not in the labor force in December, 1.1 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic, little changed from November.
.."
===================


CHART: Nonfarm Payroll Employment - December 2021 Update

CHART: Nonfarm Payroll Employment
December 2021 Update

===================

 
CHART: U-3 (Headline) Unemployment Rate - December 2021 Update

 CHART: U-3 (Headline) Unemployment Rate
December 2021 Update
 
  ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

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Thursday, January 06, 2022

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 1, 2022

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 1, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

  • Actual: 207,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 200,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 204,500

====================

From Today's Report

"...The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending December 25, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 25 was 1,754,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 2,000 from 1,716,000 to 1,718,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,798,750, a decrease of 61,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 [the run-up to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA] when it was 1,730,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 1,859,500 to 1,860,000..."


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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 31, 2021

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 

31, 2021 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,100,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -67,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 417,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


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Tuesday, January 04, 2022

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November 2021

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for November 2021 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

============

Job Openings

Predicted: 11,000,000
Actual:    10,562,000

  • Previous Month (revised): 11,091,000

  • One Year Previous: 6,766,000

  • Change from one year previous: +56.104% (3,796,000)


=============

Hires: 6,697,000 

Quits: 4,527,000 (Brand New, All-Time Record High)

Total Separations §: 6,273,000 

=============
 

CHART: Job Openings Rate - November 2021 Update

CHART: Job Openings Rate
November 2021 Update

 =============

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:


"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

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Thursday, December 30, 2021

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 25, 2021

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 25, 2021:

====================

Predicted: 200,000

  • Actual: 198,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 206,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 199,250

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From Today's Report

"...In the week ending December 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 199,250, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since October 25, 1969 when it was 199,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 206,250 to 206,500..."


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Pending Home Sales Index for November 2021

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) report for November 2021 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) this morning:


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Predicted: Unchanged.

  • Actual: 122.4

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-- Previous Month (revised): 125.2

-- 12 Months Previous: 125.8

  •  Change from Previous Month: -2.236% (-2.8 points)

  •  Change from One Year Previous: -2.703% (-3.4 points)
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From the NAR website:

  • An index above 100 coincides with a historically high level of home sales activity.

  • An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be analyzed. Coincidentally, 2001 was the first of four consecutive record years for existing-home sales. 2001 sales are fairly close to the higher level of home sales expected in the coming decade relative to the norms experienced in the mid-1990s. As such, an index of 100 coincides with a historically high level of home sales activity.
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From Today's Report:

"...Pending home sales slipped in November, receding slightly after a previous month of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed contract transactions decline month-over-month. Year-over-year activity mostly retreated too, as three regions reported drops and only the Midwest saw an increase.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.2.% to 122.4 in November. Year-over-year, signings slid 2.7%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

"There was less pending home sales action this time around, which I would ascribe to low housing supply, but also to buyers being hesitant about home prices," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "While I expect neither a price reduction, nor another year of record-pace price gains, the market will see more inventory in 2022 and that will help some consumers with affordability."

Yun notes that housing demand continues to be high, explaining that homes placed on the market for sale go from "listed status" to "under contract" in approximately 18 days.

"Buyer competition alone is unrelenting, but home seekers have also had to contend with the negative impacts of supply chain disruptions and labor shortages this year," he said. "These aspects, along with the exorbitant prices and a lack of available homes, have created a much tougher buying season."

Yun adds that a countrywide surge of the omicron variant poses a risk to the housing market's performance, as buyers and sellers are sidelined, and home construction is delayed.

Realtor.com®'s Hottest Housing Markets (link is external) most recent data showed that out of the largest 40 metros, the most improved markets over the past year were Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.; Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla.; Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas; Jacksonville, Fla.; and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo..."
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Housing Snapshot Pending Home Sales November 2021

 Housing Snapshot
Pending Home Sales
November 2021

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