Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During MARCH 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for March, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.7%
Actual: -0.5% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +0.7%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.4%
Actual:  -0.1% (M/M)

• Y/Y : +0.5%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (revised): 76.1%
Actual:  75.7% 

• Y/Y : +1.4%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%

===============

CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
MARCH 2026 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

===============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 11, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 11, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 210,000

• Actual: 207,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 218,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 209,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for MARCH 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for March, 2026:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.9%
Actual: +0.8%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +1.3%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +1.5%
Actual: +1.6%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +5.6%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +3.5%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

MARCH 2026 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

MARCH 2026 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending April 10, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 10, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -5,000,000 Barrels (-0.57%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +33,100,000 Barrels (+3.94%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 873,000,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for MARCH 2026

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for March, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 98.0

• Actual: 95.8

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -3.04% (-3.0 points.)

• Change from A Year Ago: -1.64% (-1.6 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

MARCH 2026 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

 

From the Report:

 

"...CREDIT MARKETS

In March, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions remained at a net -5% (seasonally adjusted). A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, unchanged from February and close to the historical average of a net 6%. In March, a net -3% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, unchanged from February. The average interest rate paid on short maturity loans was 7.9% in March, down 0.3 points from February. Twenty-four percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, down 1 point from February.

...Inflation will become even more of a problem as oil prices respond to developments in the Iran conflict. Only a few ships are getting through Hormuz each day compared to well over 100 pre-war, slowing not only the supply of oil, but many other important products as well. The Federal Reserve is likely to stay steady now, but a rate hike becomes more likely if the current elevated inflation environment persists. The share of small business owners raising average selling prices has stabilized at rates that prevailed at the end of the last administration (CPI up 20% over 4 years). Lower oil prices will benefit all concerned, but that may take a while even after the Strait [is back to normal]..."

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 98.8

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 97.4

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MARCH 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MARCH, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +4.0% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.4%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.5% 

• Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.6% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.5%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +4.9% (prior = +2.5%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.7% (prior = +3.8%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index

  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
MARCH 2026 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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U.S. Factory Shipments (New Orders) During FEBRUARY 2026

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and New Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for February, 2026:

========

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.4% (+2,297,000,000)

========

• February, 2026 New Orders: $578,812,000,000.
  
  
• January, 2026 New Orders: $576,515,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  
  +$22,453,000,000 (+4.04%) 
  

 ========

The highlighted percentages represent the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers; not seasonally adjusted.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
FEBRUARY 2026 Update
(seasonally adjusted.)

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for MARCH 2026

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During March, 2026: 330.213

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.9%

->  Actual: +1.05% (+3.428 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.26% (+10.414 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.41%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.34% (+1.149 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.6% (+8.458 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.46%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During March, 2025: 319.799

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
MARCH 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): THIRD and FINAL Estimate for Q4, 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its THIRD and FINAL estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +4.4%

• Actual: +0.5%

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

CHART: Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP

Q4, 2025 - THIRD / FINAL ESTIMATE

============ 

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for FEBRUARY 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (revised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%
  
  
• > Real PCE: +0.1%*

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: -0.1%
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): -0.1% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: -0.5%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.1%)

=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

 
CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 4, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 4, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 219,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 203,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 209,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending April 3, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 3, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +1,300,000 Barrels (+0.15%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +38,900,000 Barrels (+4.64%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 878,000,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Durable Goods Orders During FEBRUARY 2026

The Durable Goods Orders report for February, 2026 was released by the Commerce Department:

================

• New Orders: $296,529,000,000
  
  (+$19,942,000,000 [+7.21%]) Year-on-Year

================

CHART: Durable Goods Orders

Month-on-Month Change
FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE
(from Seasonally Adjusted Data)

================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the y-o-y change in new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers (NOT seasonally adjusted.)

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

================

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for March 2026

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for March, 2026:

==========

Predicted: 55.0%

• Actual: 54.0%  (-2.1 points month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month (revised): 56.1%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

==========

From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in March, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM^® Services PMI^® Report. The Services PMI^® registered 54 percent, the 21st consecutive month in expansion territory..."

===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

• "Tariff rollbacks are resulting in favorable price adjustments, but the news of new implementation is driving continued uncertainty. Snowstorms last month disrupted demand and supplier operations, mostly around the availability of labor. Forecasted seasonal growth is starting to materialize due to daylight savings time and higher temperatures.”
   [Accommodation & Food Services] 

• “Transportation disruptions in the Middle East are inhibiting both incoming and outgoing cargoes from the region. While force majeure has been received from several Middle Eastern suppliers, business operations are generally at normal levels and no interruptions, except shipping.”
   [Construction] 

• “We are still in cost cutting and operational streamlining mode as technology continues to advance. We have seen more concessions regarding passing through tariff surcharges. We continue to closely monitor the political situation in the Middle East and how ramifications could impact our supply chain and overall costs.”
   [Finance & Insurance] 

• “As we close out the first quarter, demand for AI computer infrastructure remains incredibly resilient. Customers have opened their 2026 capital budgets, leading to a strong refresh in new order intake. Operationally, our focus has shifted toward efficiency and margin protection.”
   [Information] 

• “Political uncertainty with Iran conflict has resulted in less international business. Domestic business remains consistent with January and February levels.”
   [Mining]

• “We’re seeing some expansion across the services economy with stronger business activity and new orders. Clients remain active on regulatory, tax planning, and risk management initiatives, though persistent pricing pressures and evolving economic conditions continue to shape project prioritization and budgeting.”
   [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services] 

• “The war in Iran has added an additional layer of uncertainty on top of an already shaky macroeconomic climate. A spike in inflation due to higher oil prices will reduce purchasing power, affecting every industry.”
   [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing] 

• “Recent increases in fuel prices are having a substantial impact on the airline industry, resulting in significantly higher operational costs compared to pricing from just one month ago.”
   [Transportation & Warehousing] 

• “Continued volatility in copper, aluminum and steel markets — driven by supply chain constraints and strong infrastructure demand — has increased costs and lead times for electric utility projects. These conditions are influencing purchasing strategies and capital planning across the industry.”
   [Utilities] 

• “The U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran have created significant uncertainty for our Omani frankincense imports. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and rising war-risk surcharges are pressuring regional logistics costs, even for air freight. Combined with the Supreme Court’s emergency tariffs ruling — which replaced our 10-percent tariff with a 15-percent Section 122 tariff — landed costs have increased materially. We are monitoring regional stability closely and maintaining communication with Omani suppliers.”
   [Wholesale Trade]
  

===========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report
  
  

==========

CHART: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index
(NMI®) MARCH 2026 Update

==========

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for FEBRUARY 2026

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for February, 2026 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 6,800,000

• Actual:   6,882,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,240,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -4.94% (-358,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 7,242,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: -4.97% (-360,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 4,849,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: -7.39% (-387,000)

-----------

QUITS: 2,974,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.68% (-179,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,721,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -7.82% (-146,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 4,971,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -5.94% (-314,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

FEBRUARY 2011 thru FEBRUARY 2026

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

=============

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