New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 13, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 13, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 224,000

• Actual: 226,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 230,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 223,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Leading Economic Index for MAY 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May, 2026:

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Index for May, 2026: 99.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: +0.1% (+0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -0.2% (-0.2 point)

============== 

• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  
• LEI for July, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for June, 2025: 98.8
  
  
• LEI for May, 2025: 99.1 
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MAY 2026 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The Leading Index for the US increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'On the non-financial side of the LEI, only ISM® New Orders Index showed some strength, with consumer expectations remaining a major drag.

Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic expansion ahead.

Consumers are feeling squeezed because everyday costs -- especially gas and energy -- are rising faster than their incomes, leaving many households with less money available for things like travel, restaurants, entertainment, and shopping.

The good news is that businesses are spending heavily on AI, data centers, and new technology, helping to keep the economy growing, while  consumers pull back spending.

The overall job market is expected to stay fairly healthy in 2026, but economic growth will be weaker than in recent years.

The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.8% y/y GDP growth in 2026, down from 2.1% in 2025.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for MAY 2026

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for MAY, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.4% (+$3,023,000,000)

• Actual: +0.88% (+$6,669,000,000)

=================

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During May, 2026: $763,705,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +6.88% (+$49,137,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

February 2006 Thru May 2026
MAY 2026 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

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Housing Starts During MAY 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for May, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,392,000

• Actual: 1,177,000

Month-on-Month Change: -15.45% (-215,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -8.69% (-112,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,423,000

• Actual: 1,413,000

Month-on-Month Change: -0.7% (-10,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -0.21%  (-3,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
MAY, 2026 UPDATE

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• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for MAY 2026

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for May, 2026:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading*: +2.0%
Actual: +1.9%

• Change From 12-Months Previous: +6.7%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +4.2%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading*: +3.5%
Actual: +1.3%

• Change From 12-Months Previous: +11.2%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading* = +9.1%

===============
 

* = Revised data.  

 

The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index

MAY, 2026 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

MAY, 2026 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During May 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for May, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.9%
Actual: +0.1% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +1.7%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): +0.7%
Actual:  FLAT (M/M)

• Y/Y : +1.4%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (unrevised): 76.1%
Actual:  76.2% 

• Y/Y : +1.3%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.3%

===============

CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
MAY 2026 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of June 6, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on June 6, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 229,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (unrevised): 225,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 219,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MAY 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for MAY, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +1.1%

• Actual: +1.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +6.5% 
(prior - unrevised = +6.0%)

===============================

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.6% 

• Actual: +0.8%

Change from 12 months previous:  +5.1% 
(prior - unrevised = +4.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +10.4% (prior = +7.4%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.9% (prior = +5.5%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index

  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
MAY 2026 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending June 5, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on June 5, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: -15,100,000 Barrels (-1.9%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -58,800,000 Barrels (-7.05%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 775,700,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the FULL (Extended) Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report HIGHLIGHTS

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for MAY 2026

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, 2026:

=========================================

CPI During May, 2026: 335.123

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.63 (+2.103 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +4.25% (+13.658 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +3.81%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.31% (+1.043 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.85% (+9.337 points)

[Y-o-Y previous = +2.75%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During May, 2025: 321.465

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index

12-Month Percentage Change
MAY 2026 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for MAY 2026

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for May, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 95.3

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -0.63% (-0.6 point.)

• Change from A Year Ago: -3.54% (-3.5 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

MAY 2026 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

 

From the Report:

 

"...CREDIT MARKETS

In May, the net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions rose 1 point to a net -3% (seasonally adjusted). A net 4% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, up 1 point from April. In May, a net 6% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, up 4 points from April. The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.8% in May, down 0.5 points from April. Twenty-seven percent of all owners reported borrowing regularly, up 5 points from April’s lowest level since November 2021.

INFLATION

In May, reports of both actual and planned price increases rose significantly. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 6 points from April to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted), marking the highest reading since March 2023. Actual price increases are well above the historical average of net 13%. Unadjusted, 46% reported higher average prices (up 5 points), and 7% reported lower average selling prices (down 1 point). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 34% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, up 7 points from April and marking the highest reading since July 2022. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem rose for the third consecutive month in May. Eighteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up 2 points from April and marking the highest reading since December 2024. Inflation ranks as the second top problem..."

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 95.9

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 98.8

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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Employment Situation Report for MAY 2026

The Employment Situation Report for May, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +172,000

Previous Month (revised): +179,000

One-Year Previous: +13,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.3%
Previous Month: 4.3%
12-Months Previous: 4.3%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.1%
Previous Month: 8.2%
12-Months Previous: 7.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.32 (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.45% (+$1.25)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.32% (+$4.12)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.75% (+$46.50)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.8%
Previous Month: 61.8%
12-Months Previous: 62.4%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate

MAY 2006 thru MAY 2026

   ===================

 

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 30, 2026

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 30, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 225,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 212,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 214,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for MAY 2026

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for MAY, 2026:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During May 2026: 97,006

• Previous Month: 83,387

  > Change from previous month: +16.33% (+13,619 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 93,816

 > Change from one-year previous: +3.4% (+3,190 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...'The labor market is being reshaped by technology in real time. AI is now the leading reason companies give for cutting jobs and the primary industry citing it is Technology. Technology, already the year’s biggest job cutter, saw its steepest month of cuts since early 2023, even as it remains the sector with the most hiring plans this year,' said Challenger.

'On top of the headline AI story, we’re seeing a sharp rise in cuts tied to acquisitions and mergers and a jump in bankruptcy-related losses, which tells me companies are restructuring aggressively as they reposition for an AI-driven economy,' said Andy Challenger, labor and workplace expert and chief revenue officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

WHY ARE COMPANIES CUTTING?

In May, Artificial Intelligence (AI) led all reasons for job cuts for the third month in a row, with 38,579 announced cuts. It is the highest monthly total ever recorded for the reason since Challenger began tracking it in 2023, and it accounted for 40% of all cuts announced in May -- up from just 7% in January, 25% in March, and 26% in April. For the year, AI has been cited in 87,714 cuts, or 22% of all 2026 layoffs, already far surpassing the 54,836 attributed to the reason in all of 2025...."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation. 

================

The Rise of AI-Driven Job Cuts
MAY 2026 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. 

================

Job Cuts - Month-by-Month Totals
MAY 2026 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

=================

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for MAY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for May, 2026:

==========

Predicted: 54.0%

• Actual: 54.5%  (+0.9 point month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month (revised): 53.6%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

==========

From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in May, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 54.5 percent, the 23rd consecutive month in expansion territory..."

===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

• "We are seeing the dual effects of the administration’s tariff policy dynamics and the invasion of Iran affect our pricing. Suppliers across numerous industries are trying to pass price increases for fuel surcharges and increased input costs for resin-based products and the like. This is the definition of inflationary pressure starting to affect us. We expect significant cost increases to impact us by late second quarter (Q2) and definitely in Q3.”
   [Accommodation & Food Services] 

• “Starting to see increased supply constraints and associated price increases, especially for construction materials and computers like laptops and tablets.”
   [Educational Services] 

• “Patient volumes and activity remain high, employment is steady and supply chains are operating effectively. There are some product lines on allocation as a direct result of the invasion of Iran; however, the current state is manageable. Another concerning factor on the horizon: the current drop-out rate on Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance plans after the federal subsidy was eliminated as of January 1. Year-to-date dropout rates are approaching 14 percent, indicating we may be seeing a potential increase in uninsured patients in the foreseeable future. The short-term forecast is cautious optimism.”
   [Health Care & Social Assistance] 

• “The groundwood paper market remains tight. The announced sale of NORPAC to International Paper has caused some tightness. We figure intellectual property issues will eventually take NORPAC out of the book market. Freight remains expensive, with gas prices and fuel surcharges starting to come through.”
   [Information] 

• “Effective commodity prices (oil) have increased about 20 percent so far in 2026.”
   [Mining] 

• “Due to rising fuel costs, a major distributor has decided to hold freight with resellers until a new contract is negotiated that addresses these increased expenses. Unfortunately, this means there will be delays that will impact our internal projects.”
   [Public Administration] 

• “Supply chain reliability for aviation parts and consumables has generally improved, but volatility in jet fuel prices -- driven by geopolitical and logistics disruptions -- continues to complicate forecasting and inventory planning. Wage inflation and a tight labor market for skilled personnel are increasing supplier service costs, and growing sustainability expectations are raising demand (and cost) for sustainable aviation fuel, with availability still uneven by region. Overall, conditions are more stable than during the peak of supply chain disruptions, but elevated fuel, labor and sustainability-related costs remain key factors shaping our purchasing strategy and industry outlook.”
   [Transportation & Warehousing] 

• “Inflationary pressures continue to impact pricing in certain categories. General concern over supply continuity due to unprecedented demand continues in the utility space.”
   [Utilities] 

• “Capital expenditure energy projects continue to be delayed or revamped based on macroeconomic factors. Data center power generation projects are driving demand and reducing available inventory across the piping market.”
   [Wholesale Trade]
  
  ===========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report
  
  

==========

CHART: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index
(NMI®) MAY 2026 Update

==========

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