May 9, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

May 9, 2025: Once again, the NASDAQ Composite index ended the week in correction territory...

 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -8.36% (-3,764.66 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -11.13% (-2,244.97 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.88% (-484.24 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 May 9, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 85% (likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on June 18, 2025.

Stay tuned...

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 3, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 3, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 228,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (unrevised): 241,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 227,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 2, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 2, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -21,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 438,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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May 2, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

May 2, 2025: The NASDAQ Composite index finished the week in correction...

 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -8.21% (-3,696.61 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -10.89% (-2,196.16 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.45% (-457.48 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 May 2, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

==============

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Employment Situation Report for April 2025

The Employment Situation Report for April 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +177,000

Previous Month (revised): 185,000
One Year Previous: 118,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Month: 7.9%
12 Months Previous: 7.4%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.17% (+$0.06)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.77% (+$1.31)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.167% (+$2.06)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.07% (+$48.41)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
APRIL 2005 THRU APRIL 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 26, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 26, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 241,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 223,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 226,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for April 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for April 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During March 2025: 105,441

• Previous Month: 275,240

  > Change from previous month: -61.69% (-169,799 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 64,789
  

 > Change from one-year previous: +62.75% (+40,652 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...So far this year, employers have announced 602,493, the highest year-to-date total since 2020 when 1,017,812 job cuts were recorded. It is up 87% from the 322,043 cuts announced during the same period in 2024.

The Government leads all sectors in job cuts this year with 282,227, 281,452 of which are attributed to DOGE-related cost-cutting. This is up 680% from the 36,195 job cuts announced in this sector through April 2024.

In April, the number of job cuts announced in this industry was 2,782. DOGE actions were attributed to 2,731, while the rest were attributed to 'Economic Conditions' and 'Cost-Cutting.'

'DOGE Actions'  lead all job cut reasons in 2025 with 283,172, 2,919 of which occurred in April. Another 6,945 cuts were attributed to 'DOGE Downstream Impact' through April, primarily at Non-Profits and Education organizations. These reasons combined (290,117) make up 48% of all job cuts announced so far in 2025..."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Challenger Report - Announced Jobs Cuts
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

Job Cuts by Reason - USA
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: FLAT

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - revised = +3.0%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First (Advance) Estimate for Q1, 2025

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025:

============

Previous quarter: +2.4%

• Actual: -0.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q1, 2025 - First Estimate / UPDATE

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for March 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,500,000

• Actual:   7,192,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,480,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,093,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -11.13% (-901,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,411,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -1.11% (-61,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,332,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: +0.09% (+3,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,558,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.47% (-56,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,137,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.49% (-131,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
MARCH 2010 thru MARCH 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for April 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for April 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 50.0

• Actual: 52.2

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -8.42% (-4.8 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -32.38% (-25.00 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for April 2024: 77.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 8% from March. While the April decline in current conditions was modest, the expectations index plummeted with drop-offs in personal finances as well as business conditions.

Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession. While this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation.

Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak.

Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations.

As seen in the chart, inflation expectations evolved with major trade policy announcements this month. After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March.

Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents..."

=========

  

CHART: Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated After
Surging and Softening Modestly Following
April 2025 Tariff Developments
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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April 25, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

April 25, 2025: All three major stock-market indexes finished the week in correction territory.
 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -10.89% (-4,900.54 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -13.83% (-2,790.95 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -10.07% (-618.94 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 April 25, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 19, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 19, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 222,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 216,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 202,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of April 18, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on April 18, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +200,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -10,500,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 443,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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Leading Economic Index for March 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2025:

==============

Index for March 2025: 100.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.69% (-0.7 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.86% (-1.9 points)

==============

• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements:

1. consumer expectations dropped further,
   
   
2. stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and,
   
   
3. new orders in manufacturing softened.

That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy’s potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Housing Starts During March 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for March 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading: 1,501,000

• Actual: 1,324,000

Month-on-Month Change: -11.38% (-170,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: +1.92% (+25,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading: 1,456,000

• Actual: 1,482,000

Month-on-Month Change: +1.58% (+23,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -0.2%  (-3,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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April 18, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

April 18, 2025: All three major stock-market indexes ended the week in correction.

No trading today, as markets were closed for the Good Friday Christian holiday.
 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -13.04% (-5,871.81 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -19.27% (-3,887.44 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -14.02% (-861.45 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 April 18, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

==============

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