NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for SEPTEMBER 2026

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for September, 2026:
=========

Predicted: 98.0

• Actual: 97.9

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -0.81% (-0.8 point.)

• Change from A Year Ago: -0.91% (-0.9 point.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

SEPTEMBER 2026 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

 

From The Report:

 

"...MEMBER QUOTES

INFLATION

“Fuel prices are killing us on our delivery trucks, as well as fuel surcharges on all freight coming into the store. They also reduce the amount of disposable income our customers have to spend at our store.” – Retail, GA

“We are a farming, seed business, and cattle operation. It has been tough going for the last 2-3 years -- maybe somewhat better now that grain prices have gone up, but all input and equipment prices are way out of line compared to what we get for our products.” – Agriculture, SD

“Fuel costs are hurting our profits. All costs have gone up: oil, parts, equipment, and health insurance.” – Transportation, PA

“Our biggest costs are labor, fuel (energy), and insurance.” – Agriculture, NY

“Prices for fuel and raw materials are too high, and finding qualified labor is difficult.” – Manufacturing, WI

“Fuel and health insurance costs are killing small businesses. […]” – Professional/business services, MA

“Higher farm expenses have hurt profits.” – Agriculture, IN

“Prices have to stop increasing!” – Manufacturing, GA

“Transportation costs have to come down.” – Wholesale, PA

“High fuel prices are hurting our industry. Uncertainty in the economy is hurting us.” – Services, AZ

“The price of materials keeps creeping upward, which impacts our customer base. Every time we must increase our prices, we lose more of our market. People simply cannot afford what we have to offer. Prior to COVID, we were able to sell to approximately 75-80% of homeowners. Now the feeling is we are only selling to the top 25-30%.” – Construction, MN

LABOR

“Our business could increase if we were able to hire skilled labor.” – Services, ME

“We need more experienced and skilled trade workers.” – Services, MI

“My biggest problem is finding people who want to work. […]” – Services, TN

“Ongoing training for employees needs to be accessible to small towns, not just large cities. Incentives and training for entry-level staff need to be increased.” – Services, ID

“It is very difficult to find production employees who want a job and can pass a drug screening. Supplier delays are also hurting business.” – Manufacturing, OH

“The paid sick leave and PMFL are affecting my overall cash flow!” – Professional/business services, MN

“I don’t know where all the workers went. […]” – Services, MT

“We need less government involved in our labor force. Let competition for employees dictate the wages, benefits, insurance, PTO, etc. […]” – Construction, MN

“It is very hard to find machinists and programmers for machine shops.” – Manufacturing, MD..." 

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 98.7

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 98.8

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for AUGUST 2026

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for August, 2026 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,100,000

• Actual:   7,079,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,335,000
  
  
• Change from Previous Month: -3.49% (-256,000)
   
  
• One-Year Previous: 6,919,000
  
  
• Change from One-Year Previous: +2.31% (+160,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,192,000

HIRES vs. 12-Months Previous: +0.91% (+47,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,066,000

QUITS vs. 12-Months Previous: -0.94% (-29,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,641,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12-Months Previous: -10.43% (-191,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,070,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12-Months Previous: -2.63% (-137,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People

per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
AUGUST 2011 thru AUGUST 2026

=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  

=============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

ISM Manufacturing Index for SEPTEMBER 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for September, 2026:

=========

• Actual: 54.5% (-0.1 point month-on-month)

=========

Previous month: 54.6%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report..."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:

• "...'Better performance was driven primarily by temporary market effects, including (1) geopolitical uncertainties, (2) customers bringing forward purchases, (3) delayed raw material price increases and (4) reduced competitor capacity. However, these factors do not signal sustained recovery: Structural challenges facing the chemical industry remain, including overcapacity, persistent pricing pressures and protectionist trade policies.'
   [Chemical Products] 

• 'Supply chain performance has improved compared to prior years, with lead times largely normalized. Cost pressures persist in select raw materials, transportation and labor categories, requiring continued focus on supplier management and cost control. We remain cautiously optimistic about business conditions over the next several quarters.'
   [Chemical Products] 

• 'The U.S. tariffs schedule is providing challenges. Finding alternate sources of supply outside of China, local pushback on data centers in the U.S. and continuing material/component shortages are affecting business.'
   [Computer + Electronic Products] 

• 'Manufacturing activity remains stable, with a continued focus on cost optimization, supplier negotiations and supply base consolidation. We are actively evaluating alternative sources in several categories to improve supply resilience and reduce costs.
  
  While material availability has generally improved compared to prior periods, qualification requirements and supplier capacity constraints continue to influence sourcing decisions for certain critical materials and components.
  
  Capital and operational spending remain focused on productivity, efficiency and transformation initiatives.'
   [Computer + Electronic Products] 

• 'Orders have doubled yet again, and delivery times have also doubled, in the semiconductor, electronics and government sectors, with remaining sectors flat to down. Coupled with supply chain lead times and pricing pressures, the factory backlog has nearly doubled. Canada tariffs have impacted cross-border costs and left our supply chain team scrambling -- those supply chains took years to develop and nurture -- hurting the very lead times government buyers are concerned about.'
   [Machinery] 

• 'Order levels remain strong and elevated; we have orders through year-end at above forecast levels. Our biggest challenge continues to be a severe shortage of workers, limiting our production output to meet demand. The second challenge is general availability of steel; the market is getting worse, and more production delays are expected as we gap out of needed material.'
   [Fabricated Metal Products] 

• 'Raw metals continue to be challenging, especially with the uncertain nature of tariffs being on and off again. New tariffs against Canada have drastically increased costs for capital expenses as well as assemblies.'
   [Electrical Equipment, Appliances + Components] 

• 'Fuel costs are still affecting transportation costs and the overall cost of goods. Beef costs remain high, with no relief in sight.'
   [Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products] 

• 'Higher interest rates slow down the growth of new construction projects; we also have to face up to the higher cost of components from overseas due to tariffs and freight rates. Due to booming demand of AI and data centers, domestic steel capacity has been stretched and pushed. Higher steel costs each month increase our raw-material and finished-goods costs.'
   [Machinery] 

• 'Every month, we are faced with new headwinds created by this administration. This month, it is the trade war with Canada, which every day is getting worse -- causing prices to go up and uncertainty that creates massive disruption.
  
  Buying continues to get pushed out indefinitely as customers don’t want to spend on capital expenditures until there is more certainty of costs and demand.
  
  The only thing that is predictable is the chaos that is created by these trade policies.'
   [Transportation Equipment]..."

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index

SEPTEMBER 2026 Update

=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index

12-Month History
SEPTEMBER 2026 Update

=========

=========

• Click here to view the complete ISM report

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

ISM Non-Manufacturing (SERVICES) Index for SEPTEMBER 2026

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing / Services Index (NMI®) for September, 2026:

==========

• Actual: 54.9%  (-0.5 point month-on-month change)

==========

Previous month: 55.4%

==========

The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

==========

From Today' Report:

 

 "...Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in September, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered 54.9%, the 27th consecutive month in expansion territory..."

 
===========

Here's A Sampling Of Comments
Made By Survey Participants:

• "...'The high cost of diesel fuel has increased the cost of freight dramatically. The high cost is hard on farmers due to the high use of diesel fuel at harvest. The high cost of crude oil has driven nitrogen (for agronomic use) prices to near record highs.'
   [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting] 

• 'Interest rates continue to drive buyers out of the market. Half of buyers walking through the door cannot qualify to purchase.'
   [Construction] 

• 'Increased competition for deposits and higher funding costs are placing pressure on profitability and moderating growth expectations. Although projections have been revised downward, the bank continues to expect modest growth in both loans and deposits.'
   [Finance + Insurance] 

• 'Had vendor communications about more fuel charges and possible tariff reinstatement.'
   [Health Care + Social Assistance] 

• 'Demand across commercial client segments remains steady through September, though client decision cycles on discretionary capital projects remain cautious. Wage pressures and software licensing renewals continue to push operational expenses slightly higher, but freight and consumable material lead times have normalized.'
   [Information] 

• 'Oil and gas prices are still high, which encourages more production.'
   [Mining] 

• 'The cost of fuel continues to impact our cost of providing services.'
   [Other Services] 

• 'Shipping containers from overseas are double the cost, causing price increases.'
   [Retail Trade] 

• 'Business activity remains strong, but supply chain conditions continue to be challenging. Utilities and materials are experiencing slower availability, with steel particularly difficult to source domestically.
  
  We are increasingly having to place orders internationally to secure required materials.
  
  Strong business demand is putting additional pressure on supply, contributing to longer lead times, material availability issues and delays in project starts.'
   [Utilities] 

• 'Demand remains very strong. Manufacturers have very little breathing room to keep up with demand, and in some cases, typical lead times have slipped. They are not as aggressive on all opportunities and eager to cut prices to secure business.
  
  Weekly price increases are the norm these days on commodities products (copper, aluminum and polyvinyl chloride). We are constantly reaching out to any and all suppliers we conduct business with to secure product to meet customer demand.'
   [Wholesale Trade]..."

========== 

• Click here to view the complete ISM report
  

==========

CHART: ISM Services Index

(NMI®) SEPTEMBER 2026 Update

==========

    

CHART: ISM Services Index
12-Month History
SEPTEMBER 2026 Update

 ==========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): THIRD / FINAL Estimate for Q2, 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its FINAL estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2026:

============

Previous quarter: +2.5%

• Actual: +2.2%

============

GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============ 

 

CHART: Contributions to Percent

Change in Real GDP by Industry Group

Q2, 2026 - FINAL ESTIMATE

============ 

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of October 17, 2026

Jobless Claims

The Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on October 17, 2026:

====================
Predicted: 198,000

• Actual: 194,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 200,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 197,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Leading Economic Index for SEPTEMBER 2026

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September, 2026:

==============

Index for September, 2026: 99.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

• Actual: FLAT 
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: +1.32% (+1.3 points)

============== 

• LEI for August, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for July, 2026: 99.7
   
• LEI for June, 2026: 99.4
  
  
• LEI for May, 2026: 99.4
   
• LEI for April, 2026: 99.2
  
  
• LEI for March, 2026: 99.0
  
  
• LEI for February, 2026: 99.6
  
  
• LEI for January, 2026: 99.3
      
• LEI for December, 2025: 99.4   
  
  
• LEI for November, 2025: 99.6  
  
  
• LEI for October, 2025: 98.1
   
• LEI for September, 2025: 98.3 
   
• LEI for August, 2025: 98.5 
  
  

==============

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board.

Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

SEPTEMBER 2026 UPDATE

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI was flat in September. However, due to an upward revision to July’s data, the Index is at a higher level than last month’s report for August,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Five out of ten components made positive contributions to the LEI in September, led by the interest rate spread and average weekly hours in manufacturing.

Nevertheless, these gains were offset by a large decline in consumer expectations and much smaller negative contributions from stock prices, new orders for capital goods and building permits.

The LEI’s six-month growth rate increased slightly, which suggests the economy is still growing and will continue to grow, but is becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment. The Conference Board now expects real GDP to grow by a 2.2% annualized rate in 2026, with our outlook for 2027 at 2.0%, higher than previously forecasted.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.3% in September 2026 to 115.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1% increase in August. Overall, the CEI rose by 0.9% over the six months between March and September 2026, up from its 0.2% growth over the previous six months. 

The CEI’s four component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components of the CEI made positive contributions last month..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During September 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for September, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.1%
Actual: +0.7% Month-on-Month (M/M)

• Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +2.2%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.4%
  
  

Manufacturing:
Previous Month (revised): -0.2%
Actual: +0.3% M/M

• Y/Y : +1.1%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +0.9%
  
  

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (revised): 76.4%
Actual:  76.9% 

• Y/Y : +1.2%
  
  --> Y/Y Previous: +1.2

===============

CHART: Industrial Production

+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
SEPTEMBER 2026 UPDATE

 

===============

• Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report

==============

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending October 16, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 16, 2026 was released this morning:

- Δ from Last Week: -3,400,000 Barrels (-0.49%)

- Δ from 1-Year Previous: -136,200,000 Barrels (-16.38%)

- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 695,200,000 Barrels

• NB: Δ = Change

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Weekly Petroleum Status Report DATA OVERVIEW

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

Housing Starts During SEPTEMBER 2026

The U.S. Commerce Department released its Housing Starts report for September, 2026:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,288,000

• Actual: 1,221,000

Month-on-Month Change: -5.2% (-67,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -7.43% (-98,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,403,000

• Actual: 1,400,000

Month-on-Month Change: -0.21% (-3,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -3.05%  (-44,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts

+ Building Permits
+ Completions
SEPTEMBER, 2026 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================= 

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for SEPTEMBER 2026

The Commerce Department has released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for SEPTEMBER, 2026:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.29% (+$9,407,000,000)

• Actual: +0.77% (+$5,699,000,000)

================= 

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During September: $745,021,000,000

• Year-On-Year Change: +6.29% (+$44,073,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly

January 2006 Thru September 2026
SEPTEMBER 2026 UPDATE
=================

 

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================   

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- CLICK HERE to JUMP to the TOP of THIS PAGE >  SITEMAP  <