.comment-link {margin-left:.6em;}

Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 15, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  March 15, 2019 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: -9,600,000

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +11,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 439,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 8, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  March 8, 2019 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: -3,900,000

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +18,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 449,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).



Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2019

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2019 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.9%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.3%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


==============


==============



Labels: , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2019

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2019:

=========================================

Predicted: +0.2
Actual: +0.2% 

(Change from 12 months previous: +1.5%)

=========================================

Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================  


Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - February 2019 Update
Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - February 2019 Update

========================================= 



=========================================



Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Monday, March 11, 2019

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for January 2019

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for January 2019:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.212% (+1,060,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

-- Estimated Retail Sales During January 2019: $504,440,000,000

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.284% (+$11,263,000,000)

=================


=================
 


Labels: , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Friday, March 08, 2019

Employment Situation Report for February 2019

The Employment Situation Report for February 2019 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +175,000
Actual: +20,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.8%
Previous Month: 4.0%
12 Months Previous: 4.1%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.3%
Previous Month: 8.1%
12 Months Previous: 8.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.399% (+$0.11)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.3%
Actual: +3.402% (+$0.91)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.107% (+$1.02)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.101% (+$28.62)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 63.2%
Previous Month: 63.2%
12 Months Previous: 63.0%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents to $27.66
[+0.399%], following a 2-cent gain in January. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by [$0.91, or +3.402%]. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 8 cents to $23.18 [+0.346%] in February.


The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up from +222,000 to +227,000, and the change for January was revised up from +304,000 to +311,000. With these revisions, employment gains in December and January combined were 12,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged
186,000 per month over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]
======

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."


===================


 ===================



Labels: , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 1, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  March 1, 2019 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: +7,100,000

-- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): +27,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 452,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Tuesday, March 05, 2019

New Home Sales During December 2018

The December 2018 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: 590,000
Actual New Home Sales: 621,000

------------------------------------------------------

Change from One Month Previous: +3.7%

Change from One Year Previous: -2.4%

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home during December 2018: $318,600

========

Average Price for a New Home during December 2018: $377,000


------------------------------------------------------

Inventory: 344,000 (6.6 months supply at current sales rate.)

------------------------------------------------------

================================


================================


Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

================================

Labels: , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Friday, March 01, 2019

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2018

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2018:

----------------------

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: -0.3%
Actual: -0.5%

----------------------

Personal Income
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +1.0%

----------------------

  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars:  +1.1%
  • Disposable Personal Income, 2012 Chained* Dollars +1.0% 

----------------------

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.


=====================
=====================

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: No change
Actual: +0.1%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.7%
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.9%
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


 =====================

 =====================

*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.


Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q4, 2018

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2018 :

Predicted: +2.2%
Actual: +2.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

Chart: GDP - Q4 2018 - First Estimate
Chart: GDP - Q4 2018 - First Estimate

============


============


Labels: , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 22, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 22, 2019 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: -8,600,000

-- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): +22,400,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 445,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 15, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 15, 2019 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: +3,700,000

-- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): +34,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 454,500,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Existing Home Sales During January, 2019

The Existing Home Sales report for January, 2019 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) this morning:

Predicted: 5,040,000
Actual: 4,940,000

  •  Change from Previous Month: -1.2%

  •  Change from One Year Previous: -8.5%
==========

Inventory: 1,590,000 (3.9 months supply)

==========

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for A Used Home During January: $247,500

Change from One Year Previous: +2.8%

---------

Average Price for A Used Home During January: $286,800

Change from One Year Previous: +1.5%

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========



==========

From Today's Report:


"...Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says last month’s home sales of 4.94 million were the lowest since November 2015, but that he does not expect the numbers to decline further going forward. 'Existing home sales in January were weak compared to historical norms; however, they are likely to have reached a cyclical low. Moderating home prices combined with gains in household income will boost housing affordability, bringing more buyers to the market in the coming months.'

The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $247,500, up 2.8 percent from January 2018 ($240,800). January’s price increase marks the 83rd straight month of year-over-year gains.

Yun notes that this median home price growth is the slowest since February 2012, and is cautions that the figures do not yet tell the full story for the month of January. 'Lower mortgage rates from December 2018 had little impact on January sales, however, the lower rates will inevitably lead to more home sales.'

While total inventory grew (on a year-over-year basis) for the sixth straight month, Yun says the market is still suffering from an inventory shortage. 'In particular, the lower end of the market is experiencing a greater shortage, and more home construction is needed,' says Yun. 'Taking steps to lower construction costs would be a tremendous help. Local zoning ordinances should also be reformed, while the housing permitting process must be expedited; these simple acts would immediately increase homeownership opportunities and boost local economies.'

Realtor.com®’s Market Hotness Index, measuring time-on-the-market data and listing views per property, revealed that the hottest metro areas in January were Midland, Texas; Chico, California; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California; Fort Wayne, Indiana; and Colorado Springs, Colorado.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate (link is external) for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 4.46 percent in January from 4.64 percent in December. The average commitment rate for all of 2018 was 4.54 percent.

'Decelerated sales and the increases in inventory will work in favor of potential homebuyers, putting them in a better negotiating position heading into the spring months,' said NAR President
John Smaby, a second-generation Realtor® from Edina, Minnesota and broker at Edina Realty. 'On top of that, low-interest rates will bring an additional $80 per month savings compared to the rates of just a few months ago.'..."

==================


==================


Labels: , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Friday, February 15, 2019

All 3 Major Indexes Advanced On The Week

Summary of U.S. Markets for the Week Ending February 15, 2019:

===================================

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed @ 25,883.25:

- added 776.92 points (+3.095%) on the week.
- lost 945.14 points (-3.523%) since the October 3, 2018 record-high close (26,828.39.)

---------------------------
S and P 500 Index closed @ 2,775.60:

- gained 67.72 points (+2.501%) on the week.
- lost 155.15 points (-5.294%) since the September 20, 2018 record-high close (2,930.75.)

--------------------------- 

NASDAQ Composite Index closed @ 7,472.41:

- added 174.21 points (+2.387%) on the week.
- lost 637.28 points (-7.858%) since the August 29, 2018 record-high close (8,109.69.)

===================================

- NYMEX Crude Oil for Future Delivery closed @ $55.59 per barrel

- Comex Gold for April 2019 delivery closed @ $1,322.10 per troy ounce

- In New York, a U.S. dollar buys 0.885 euros

- In New York, a Euro buys 1.1298 U.S. dollars

- The United States Prime Rate is 5.50%

- The Target Range for the Fed Funds Rate is 2.25% - 2.50%

- The yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note is currently @ 2.66%


===================================



Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2019

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2019:

Import Prices
Predicted: Unchanged
Actual: -0.5%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -1.7%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.6%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -0.2%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


===============


===============

Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During January 2019

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for January 2019 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.6%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.9%

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 78.8%
Actual: 78.2

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in January after rising 0.1 percent in December. In January, manufacturing production fell 0.9 percent, primarily as a result of a large drop in motor vehicle assemblies; factory output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.2 percent. The indexes for mining and utilities moved up 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. At 109.4 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.8 percent higher in January than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.6 percentage point in January to 78.2 percent, a rate that is 1.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average..."

===============


===============


Labels: , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Thursday, February 14, 2019

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for December 2018

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for December 2018:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -1.244% (-$6,374,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

-- Estimated Retail Sales During December 2018: $505,826,000,000

  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.274% (+$11,248,000,000)

=================


=================
 

Labels: , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 9, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 9, 2019:

Predicted: 225,000
Actual: 239,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 235,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 231,750
====================


====================


Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2019

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2019 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.0%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: 0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.5%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


==============


==============

Labels: , , , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 8, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 8, 2019 was released this morning: 

-- Change from Last Week: +3,600,000

-- Change from Last Year (Y/Y): +28,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 450,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


Labels: , , , ,


>  SITEMAP  <

www.FedPrimeRate.com
Entire Website © 2019 FedPrimeRate.comSM


This website is neither affiliated nor associated with The United States Federal Reserve in any way.
Information in this website is provided for educational purposes only. The owners of this website
make no warranties with respect to any and all content contained within this website. Consult a
financial professional before making important decisions related to any investment or loan
product, including, but not limited to, business loans, personal loans, education loans, first
or second mortgages, credit cards, car loans or any type of insurance.