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Economy

Economic Indicators (USA)

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 19, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 19, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +2,500,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +72,800,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 523,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translates to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

Click here for weekly crude oil prices.


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Existing Home Sales for July 2016

The Existing Home Sales report for July 2016 was released by The National Association of Realtors® this morning:

Predicted: 5,520,000
Actual: 5,390,000

Change from Previous Month: -3.2%
Change from One Year Previous: -1.6%

Inventory: 2,130,000 (4.7 months supply)

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The "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annual sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for last month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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Median Price for A Used Home During July 2016: $244,100
Change from One Year Previous: +5.3%

Average Price for A Used Home During July 2016: $285,900
Change from One Year Previous: +3.6%

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Click here for historical prices and a chart.


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Existing Home Sales - July 2016
Existing Home Sales - July 2016
==========

  • The monthly Existing Home Sales report is released on or around the 25TH day of each month.

Click here to view the full NAR report

 

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Tuesday, August 23, 2016

New Home Sales for July 2016

The July 2016 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: 580,000
Actual New Home Sales: 654,000

Change from One Month Previous:  +12.4%
Change from One Year Previous: +31.3%

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Median Price for a New Home during July: $294,600

Average Price for a New Home during July: $355,800

Click here for historical prices and a chart.

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New Home Sales for July 2016
New Home Sales for July 2016
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Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the monthly New Home Sales report measures the number of newly-built homes with committed buyers during the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Thursday, August 18, 2016

Leading Economic Index for July 2016

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index for July 2016 this morning:

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Index for May: 124.3 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2010 survey results.)

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.4%

  • Previous Month: +0.3.

  • 2 Months Previous: -0.2
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The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The Leading Economic Indicators Index is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

Click here to view the full Conference Board report. 

Click here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 13, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 13, 2016:

Predicted: 265,000
Actual: 262,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Last Week (unrevised): 266,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 265,250

From today's report:

"...There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 76 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973..."

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 12, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 12, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: -2,500,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +64,900,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 521,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translates to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

Click here for weekly crude oil prices.

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Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Latest GDPNow Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast for Q3:2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its latest GDPNow forecast for the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2016.

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Latest Forecast for Q3, 2016: +3.6%

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Previous Reading (August 12, 2016): +3.5%

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GDPNow: August 16, 2016
GDPNow: August 16, 2016
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From Today's Report:

"...The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.6% on August 16, up from 3.5% on August 12. After this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 0.4 percent to 2.4 percent..."

About The GDPNow Forecast Model:

"...The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an 'advance' (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymaker have the Fed Board staff projection of this 'advance' estimate at their disposal...

...The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to 'nowcast' GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add 'color' to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids..."

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization for July 2016

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for July 2016 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.7%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.5%

The above numbers (highlighted) represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 75.5%
Actual: 75.9

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Federal Reserve report


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Housing Starts During July 2016

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released the Housing Starts report for July 2016:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,180,000
Actual: 1,211,000

Change From Previous Month: +2.1%
Change From One Year Previous: +5.6%

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,160,000
Actual: 1,152,000

Change From Previous Month: -0.1%
Change From One Year Previous: +0.9%

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The above is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise --  and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).


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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2016

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2016:

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Predicted: 0.0%
Actual: 0.0%

(Change from 12 months previous: +0.8%)

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

(Change from 12 months previous: +2.2%)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)
Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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Monday, August 15, 2016

Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August 2016

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York  (NY Fed) released the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for this month (August 2016):

Predicted: +2.5
Actual: -4.21

Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...Business activity in New York State declined slightly this month, according to firms responding to the August 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell five points to -4.2. The new orders index remained near zero, a sign that orders were little changed, while the shipments index climbed eight points to 9.0, indicating that shipments rose. Labor market indicators pointed to little change in employment levels and hours worked. The prices paid index edged down to 15.5, suggesting that input price increases remained moderate, and at 2.1, the prices received index reflected a minute increase in selling prices. Forward-looking indicators suggested that firms expected conditions to improve over the next six months, although the level of optimism diminished for a second consecutive month..."

About this survey, from the NY Fed website:

"...Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead..."

Click here to view the full NY Fed report.

  • Last month, the actual figure was +0.55

For a national perspective on manufacturing in the United States, check out the Institute of Supply Management's Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI).


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Friday, August 12, 2016

Latest GDPNow Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast for Q3:2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its latest GDPNow forecast for the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2016.

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Latest Forecast for Q3, 2016: +3.5%

==============

Previous Reading (August 9, 2016): +3.7%


==============

GDPNow: August 12, 2016
GDPNow: August 12, 2016
==============


From Today's Report:

"...The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.5% on August 12, down from 3.7% on August 9. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for third-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.7 percent to 3.4 percent..."

About The GDPNow Forecast Model:

"...The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an 'advance' (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymaker have the Fed Board staff projection of this 'advance' estimate at their disposal...

...The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to 'nowcast' GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add 'color' to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids..."

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2016

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2016 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: -0.4%

Change from 12 months previous: -0.2%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food and energy are removed:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: -0.3%

Change from 12 months previous: +0.7%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales Report for July 2016

The Commerce Department this morning released advanced estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for July 2016:

Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: 0.0%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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Previous Month (revised): +0.8%

Estimated Retail Sales for July: $457,700,000,000

Change from 12 Months Previous: +2.3%

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full report.


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Thursday, August 11, 2016

Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2016

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2016:

Import Prices
Predicted: -0.4%
Actual: +0.1%

Last Month (revised): +0.6%

Change From 12 Months Ago: -3.7%

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Export Prices
Actual: +0.2%

Change From 12 Months Ago: -3.0%

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The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 6, 2016

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 6, 2016:

Predicted: 265,000
Actual: 266,000

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Last Week (revised): 267,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 262,750

From today's report:

"...There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 75 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973..."

Click here to view the full Labor Department report

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 5, 2016

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 5, 2016 was released this morning:

Weekly Change: +1,100,000 Barrels

Yearly Change: +70,000,000 Barrels

Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 523,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translates to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Click here for the full Week in Petroleum report.

Click here for weekly crude oil prices.


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Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Wholesale Trade, Sales And Inventories, for June 2016

Earlier today, the Commerce Department released its report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories, for June 2016:

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Sales, change from previous month: +1.9%

Sales, change from 12 months previous: -0.4%

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Inventories, change from previous month: +0.3%

Inventories, change from 12 months previous: +0.2%

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The highlighted percentages represent the change in sales and inventories of merchant wholesalers, excluding manufacturers’ sales branches and offices.

When inventories swell and sales lag, manufacturing / production tends to wane, and vice versa.

Click here to view the full Census Bureau report (PDF.)

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Friday, August 05, 2016

U.S. International Trade In Goods And Services for June, 2016

The U.S. International Trade In Goods And Services report for June, 2016 was released by The U.S. Commerce Department this morning:

Predicted: $-43,000,000,000
Actual: $-44,500,000,000

A negative number represents a trade deficit, while a positive number represents a trade surplus.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Previous Month (revised): -41,000,000,000.

Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).

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Employment Situation Report for July 2016

The Employment Situation Report for July 2016 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +185,000
Actual: +255,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Predicted: 4.8%
Actual: 4.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 9.7%
Previous Reading: 9.6%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3124%

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8%
Previous Reading: 62.7%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hrs
Actual: 34.5 hrs

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 8 cents to $25.69 [+0.3124%]. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.6% percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents to $21.59 [+0.3253%] in July...


...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +11,000 to +24,000, and the change for June was revised from +287,000 to +292,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 18,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 190,000 per month..."
[Establishment Survey Data]

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* =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

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