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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of January 17, 2020

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on January 17, 2020 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -16,900,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 428,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Friday, January 03, 2020

ISM Manufacturing Index for December 2019

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for December 2019:

Predicted: 49.4%
  • Actual: 47.2% (-0.9 point month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 48.1%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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From Today's Report:

"..Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December, and the overall economy grew for the 128th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®...."
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The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:


  •     "Backlog of orders is shrinking due to new order pace continuing to fall."
     (Computer + Electronic Products)

  •     "Due to sluggish sales, we have introduced promotions to generate increased sales."
     (Chemical Products)

  •     "Cautiously optimistic is the rule these days. Sales are decent, but we're wondering what 2020 will bring. Still hedging that it will be successful — but maybe not as much as this year."
     (Transportation Equipment)

  •     "Starting to see suppliers try to pass on costs associated with tariffs. Uncertainty on the trade front continues to keep agricultural markets on the defensive."
     (Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products)

  •     "Down month-to-month, but up over last year."
     (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

  •     "Anticipated large export orders did not materialize. As a result, expected U.S. production has decreased."
     (Fabricated Metal Products)

  •     "Dealer inventories have rebounded, and overall customer market has softened, resulting in corrections to near-term production schedules and a tentative forecast outlook."
     (Machinery)

  •     "Export markets continue to weaken for plastic resins — Mexican producers are actually trying to sell product back into the U.S. due to weak in-country demand."
     (Plastics + Rubber Products)

  •     "Our outlook for the first quarter of 2020 is positive. We have secured contracts from a number of former customers and expect sales growth of about 5 percent over Q4 of 2019."
     (Textile Mills)

  •     "The construction market seems to have slowed for end of year. Overall, it’s marginally up."
     (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

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ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History  December 2019 Update
ISM Manufacturing Index - 12 Month History
December 2019 Update

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Thursday, January 02, 2020

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 28, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 28, 2019:

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Predicted: 222,000
  • Actual: 222,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 224,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 233,250
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Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2019

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December 2019) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

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Predicted: 128.0
  • Actual: 126.5

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Previous Month (revised): 126.8
 
  • Change from Previous Month: -0.237% (-0.3 point)
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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined marginally in December, following a slight improvement in November,' said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

  • The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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Friday, December 27, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 20, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 20, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -5,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 441,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).



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Friday, December 20, 2019

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Third (Final) Estimate for Q3, 2019

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third and final estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2019:

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Predicted: +2.1%
  • Actual: +2.1%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

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"...Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $4.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $75.8 billion in the second quarter.

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $4.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $2.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $5.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $34.7 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $5.5 billion, compared with an increase of $38.7 billion. In the third quarter, receipts decreased $10.0 billion, and payments decreased $15.5 billion.
.."
 
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Chart: GDP, Third Quarter 2019, Third / Final Estimate
Chart: GDP, Third Quarter 2019, Third / Final Estimate

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2019

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2019:

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Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4%

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Personal Income
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.5%

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  • Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%
  • Disposable Personal Income, 2012 Chained* Dollars: +0.4%

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The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

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Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.5%
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Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1%

  • Change from 12 months previous: +1.6%
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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

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The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.


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Chart: Disposable Personal Income and Real Consumer Spending November 2019 Update
Chart: Disposable Personal Income and Real Consumer Spending
November 2019 Update

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*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.


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Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 13, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 13, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -1,100,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +5,400,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 446,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During November 2019

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for November 2019 were released by the Federal Reserve this morning:

Industrial Production:
Predicted: +0.9%
Actual: +1.1%

Manufacturing:
Predicted: +0.7%
Actual: +1.1%

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in manufacturing, and physical output from mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States.

Capacity Utilization Rate:
Predicted: 77.4%
Actual: 77.3

The Capacity Utilization Rate represents the use of available resources at mining operations, utility plants and factories for the entire United States last month.

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...Industrial production and manufacturing production both rebounded 1.1 percent in November after declining in October. These sharp November increases were largely due to a bounceback in the output of motor vehicles and parts following the end of a strike at a major manufacturer. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the indexes for total industrial production and for manufacturing moved up 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Mining production edged down 0.2 percent, while the output of utilities increased 2.9 percent.

At 109.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 0.8 percent lower in November than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.7 percentage point in November to 77.3 percent, a rate that is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average.
.."

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Housing Starts During November 2019

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for November 2019:

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Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,340,000
Actual: 1,365,000

Change From Previous Month: +3.175% (+42,000 units)
Change From One Year Previous: +13.561% (+163,000 units)

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Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,410,000
Actual: 1,482,000

Change From Previous Month: +1.437% (+21,000 units)
Change From One Year Previous: +11.094% (+148,000 units)

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Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.



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Chart: Housing Starts - November 2019 Update
Chart: Housing Starts - November 2019 Update

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for October 2019

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for October 2019 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

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Job Openings

Predicted: 7,015,000
Actual:    7,267,000

  • Previous Month (revised): 7,032,000

  • One Year Previous: 7,593,000

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Hires: 5,764,000

Total Separations: 5,636,000

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentage represents the estimated number of job openings in the United States during the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

Here's how the Labor Department defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

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Chart: Job Openings, Hires and Separations - October 2019 Update
Chart: Job Openings, Hires and Separations
October 2019 Update

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Monday, December 16, 2019

Empire State Manufacturing Survey for December 2019

Earlier today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York  (NY Fed) released the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for this month (December 2019):

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Expected: +4.0
  • Actual: +3.5

Any figure below zero implies that manufacturing in the region is contracting, and vice versa.

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The November 2019 figure was +2.9 

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From today's report:

"...Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index held steady at 3.5. New orders were also little changed, while shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were somewhat shorter, and inventories held steady. Employment continued to expand, though the average workweek was unchanged. Input price increases continued to slow, and selling prices increased slightly. Optimism about the six-month outlook picked up, and capital spending plans were notably stronger..."

About this survey, from the NY Fed website:

"...Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead..."

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey - General Business Conditions - December 2019 Update
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
General Business Conditions
December 2019 Update
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Friday, December 13, 2019

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for November 2019

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for November 2019:

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.19% (+$1,003,000,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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  • Estimated Retail Sales During November 2019: $527,994,000,000
  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.35% (+$17,112,000,000)

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Chart: Retail Sales - November 2019 Update
Chart: Retail Sales - November 2019 Update

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Thursday, December 12, 2019

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for November 2019

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for November 2019 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: Unchanged

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.1%

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Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: Unchanged

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.3%

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The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 7, 2019

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 7, 2019:

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Predicted: 213,000
  • Actual: 252,000
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The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (unrevised): 203,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 224,000
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Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 6, 2019

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 6, 2019 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +6,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 447,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2019

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2019:

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Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3%

  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.1%

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Below is the CPI when food and energy are removed, also known as core CPI:

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.2%

  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.3%

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The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

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From Today's Report:

"...Increases in the shelter and energy indexes were major factors in the seasonally adjusted monthly increase of the all items index. Increases in the indexes for medical care, for recreation, and for food also contributed to the overall increase. The gasoline index rose 1.1 percent in November and the other major energy component indexes also increased. The food index rose 0.1 percent, with the indexes for both food at home and food away from home increasing over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November, the same increase as in October. Along with the indexes for shelter, for medical care, and for recreation, the indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel also rose in November. The new vehicles index fell in November, as did the index for airline fares..."

 
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Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - November 2019 Update
Chart: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - November 2019 Update
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Tuesday, December 10, 2019

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November 2019

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for November 2019:

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Predicted: 102.9
Actual: 104.7

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  • Change from Previous Month: +2.246% (+2.3 points)
  • Change from 12 Months Previous: -0.095% (-0.1 point)

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  • The October 2019 SBOI reading was 102.4

  • The November 2018 SBOI reading was 104.8

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Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - November 2019 Update
Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
November 2019 Update

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From Today's Report:


"...Small Business Optimism Sees Major Spike in November

Small business optimism posted the largest month-over-month gain since May 2018, rising 2.3 points to 104.7 in November. The exceptional Optimism Index reading was bolstered by seven of the 10 Index components advancing, led by a 10-point improvement in earnings. Owners reporting it is a good time to expand increased by 6 points and those expecting better business conditions increased by 3 points. The NFIB Uncertainty Index fell 6 points in November to 72, adding to the 4-point drop in October and the lowest reading since May 2018.

'This historic run may defy the expectations of many, but it comes as no surprise to small business owners who understand what a supportive tax and regulatory environment can do for their companies,' said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. 'As the two-year anniversary of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s passage approaches this month, small businesses, the world’s third largest economy, are using those savings to power the American economy.'

Earnings, or the frequency that owners report positive profit trends, rose 10 points, 1 point below the record set in May 2018, to a net 2 percent reporting quarter on quarter profit improvements. Stronger profits negated some cost pressures (especially labor) limiting the need to raise prices. A net 12 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up 8 points and the highest level since May 2018.

'Owners are aggressively moving forward with their business plans, proving that when they’re given relief from the government, they put their money where their mouth is, and they invest, hire, and increase wages,' said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. 'Owners are most closely focused on issues that directly impact their business, including the real, significant tax relief they were given two years ago, and they’re anxious to see that relief made permanent.'

As reported last week in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a net 30 percent of small business owners, seasonally adjusted, reported raising compensation (unchanged) and 26 percent plan to do so in the coming months, up 4 points and the highest level since December 1989. Job creation jumped in November, with an average addition of 0.29 workers per firm, the highest level since May. Finding qualified workers though remains the top issue for 26 percent reporting this as their number one problem, 1 point below August’s record high.

Owners raising average selling prices rose 2 points to a net 12 percent, seasonally adjusted. Price hikes were most frequent in the retail trades (7 percent lower, 24 higher) and construction (6 percent lower, 23 higher). On balance, inflationary pressures are weak on Main Street as confirmed by government inflation reports.

November reflects a stark departure from previous months of clatter months about a possible recession that dampened owners’ economic outlook. But the current focus and noise in Washington, D.C. around impeachment is proving to have little, if any, impact on small business owners, no different than during the impeachment proceedings of President Bill Clinton.
.."

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  • Small business survey questions can be found at the end of today's report.
  • The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q3 2019 (Revised)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the third quarter of 2019 (revised):

Nonfarm Productivity
Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: -0.2%

  • Change from A Year Ago: +1.5%

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Unit Labor Costs
Predicted: +3.4%
Actual: +2.5%

  • Change from A Year Ago: +2.2%

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The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.


For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


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Chart: Labor Productivity | Q1 2015 Through Q3 2019 (Revised)
Chart: Labor Productivity | Q1 2015 Through Q3 2019 (Revised)

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Chart: Unit Labor Costs | Q1 2015 Through Q3 2019 (Revised)
Chart: Unit Labor Costs | Q1 2015 Through Q3 2019 (Revised)

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  • The preliminary productivity report for Q4 2019 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, February 6, 2020.
 
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Saturday, December 07, 2019

Employment Situation Report for November 2019

The Employment Situation Report for November 2019 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +180,000
Actual: +266,000


U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.5%
Previous Month: 3.6%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.9%
Previous Month: 7.0%
12 Months Previous: 7.6%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.295% (+$0.07)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.0%
Actual: +3.654% (+$0.84)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.295% (+$2.35)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.04% (+$23.55)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 63.2%
Previous Month: 63.3%
12 Months Previous: 62.9%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised up by 13,000 from +180,000 to +193,000, and the change for October was revised up by 28,000 from +128,000 to +156,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 41,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 205,000 over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]
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 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."


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