Leading Economic Index for March 2025
Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2025:
Index for March 2025: 100.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)
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Predicted: -0.1%
- Actual: -0.69% (-0.7 point Month-on-Month)
- Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.86% (-1.9 points)
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- LEI for February 2025: 101.2
- LEI for January 2025: 101.4
- LEI for December 2024: 101.6
- LEI for November 2024: 101.7
- LEI for October 2024: 101.4
- LEI for September 2024: 101.7
- LEI for August 2024: 102.1
- LEI for July 2024: 102.4
- LEI for June 2024: 102.9
- LEI for May 2024: 101.3
- LEI for April 2024: 101.7
- LEI for March 2024: 102.4
The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:
- The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
- Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
- Building permits for new private housing
- The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
- Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Average weekly manufacturing hours
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
- Leading Credit Index™
"...'The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements:
- consumer expectations dropped further,
- stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and,
- new orders in manufacturing softened.
That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy’s potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.'..."
Labels: consumer, consumers, disinflation, Economy, FedPrimeRate, FedPrimeRate.com, inflation, Leading_Economic_Index, leading_economic_indicators, Recession_Risk, Recession_Signals, Recession_Warning
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