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Economic Data (USA)

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Last GDPNow Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast for Q1:2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its last GDPNow forecast for the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2016.


Last Forecast for Q1, 2016: +0.6%
Previous Reading: +0.4%


GDPNow Forecast
GDPNow Forecast

From Today's Report:

"...The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.6 percent on April 27, up from 0.4 percent on April 26. After this morning's advance report on international trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.68 percentage points to -0.45 percentage points..."

About The GDPNow Forecast Model:

"...The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an 'advance' (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymakers have the Fed Board staff projection of this 'advance' estimate at their disposal...

...The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to 'nowcast' GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add 'color' to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids...

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