Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for MARCH 2026

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March, 2026:

==================

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.20

==================

• Previous Month (revised): N/A

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): -0.03

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
March 2026 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for FEBRUARY 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE])

Previous Reading (revised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.5%
  
  
• > Real PCE: +0.1%*

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: -0.1%
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): -0.1% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: -0.5%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.1%)

=====================

The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

 
CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
FEBRUARY 2026 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for JANUARY 2026

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for January, 2026:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.9% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: +0.7%* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.9%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.1%
  (prior - unrevised = +3.0%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

 

CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
JANUARY 2026 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for DECEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.3%
  
  
• > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.3% 
  
  
• >> Real DPI: FLAT* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.4% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
  (prior - revised = +2.8%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.4%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - revised = +2.8%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

 

CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for NOVEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: +0.5%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.3%
  
  
• Real Disposable Personal Income: +0.1% 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
NOVEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for SEPTEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for September 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.3%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - revised = +2.9%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading: N/A

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
  (prior - revised = +3.1%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
SEPTEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for AUGUST 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for August 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.6%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.9%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
AUGUST 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for JULY 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for July 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: +0.5%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.2% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.6%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.8%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
JULY 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for JUNE 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for June 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.3%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): -0.4%

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - revised = +2.4%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.8%
  (prior - revised = +2.8%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

 

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
JUNE 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for MAY 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for May 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: -0.1%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: -0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.1%

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%
  (prior - revised = +2.2%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.7%
  (prior - revised = +2.6%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
MAY 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.8%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.3%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
APRIL 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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