Latest GDPNow Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast for Q3:2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its latest GDPNow forecast for the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2016.

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Latest Forecast for Q3, 2016: +3.5%

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Previous Reading (August 25, 2016): +3.4%

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GDPNow: August 29, 2016

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From Today's Report:

"...The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.5% on August 29, up from 3.4% on August 25. The forecast for third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.5 percent to 3.8 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.78 percentage point to 0.65 percentage point after Friday's Advance Economic Indicators Report from the U.S. Census Bureau..."

About The GDPNow Forecast Model:

"...The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an 'advance' (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymaker have the Fed Board staff projection of this 'advance' estimate at their disposal...

...The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to 'nowcast' GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add 'color' to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids..."

• Click here to view recent GDPNow forecasts (PDF).
  
  
•  Click here to view the full GDPNow report.
  
  

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