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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, September 06, 2018

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for August 2018

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for August 2018:

Predicted: 56.8%
Actual: 58.5% (+2.8 points | +5.027% M/M Change)

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Previous month: 55.7%

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The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service Categories Include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

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From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 103RD consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

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Here's a sampling of comments made by survey participants:

  •     'Tariff-related cost increases are beginning to accelerate, whether tariffs have been put into effect or not.'
     (Construction)

  •     'Our business continues to increase, perhaps linked to the general economy and aging baby boomers.'
     (Health Care + Social Assistance)

  •     'Government tariffs are negatively impacting production and recycling sales. Pulp costs have gone up, and that has directly impacted paper for our newspaper production and copy paper. A 10-percent tariff has been placed on aluminum, [which] is used to make production plates. Those used plates are put on the recycling market, which China has put a tariff on. These dynamics have a significant impact on newspaper margins.'
     (Information)

  •     'Business for August is surprisingly higher for our company compared to last month and YOY [year over year]. Based on current trends on customer quote requests and conversions to orders, we are trending for this month to be the best August in the history of our company.'
     (Management of Companies + Support Services)

  •     'The global tariff war, [with] steel in particular, has driven the cost of goods higher.'
     (Mining)

  •     'Oil and gas hiring continues to increase, particularly in the oil-field services sector. Capital-project activity is strong in the downstream, petrochemical, midstream and onshore drilling sectors. New investment in deepwater drilling projects remains low.'
     (Professional, Scientific + Technical Services)

  •     'Business activity is markedly higher now that the government is in the fourth quarter of its fiscal year and agencies need to obligate their fiscal year 2018 funds. Many contracts expiring in this time frame require renewal.'
     (Public Administration)

  •     'Overall, business has increased. Many factors can be attributed to this increase in demand, [including] the budget and positive outlook on the economy.'
     (Real Estate, Rental + Leasing)

  •     'Solid Q2 results, beating estimates all around. Since we are a services business, the tariffs have little impact [at this point] but are nonetheless a consideration. We do harbor future concerns about the general cost of goods from overseas and the effects on consumer pricing. In the labor market, we have seen a noticeable increase in difficulty to attract and retain talent at all levels. We have begun taking steps to change compensation packages to combat this issue.'
     (Retail Trade)

  •     'Demand for transportation has started earlier than normal with the rail [industry] announcing peak season surcharges that were effective August 1. We are having to re-adjust inventory levels sooner than anticipated.'
     (Wholesale Trade)



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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) History - August 2018 Update
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) History - August 2018 Update

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