Leading Economic Index for January 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for January 2025:
==============

Index for January 2025: 101.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.29% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.07% (-1.1 points)

==============

• LEI for December 2024: 101.8
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined in January, reversing most of the gains from the previous two months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ assessments of future business conditions turned more pessimistic in January, which -- alongside fewer weekly hours worked in manufacturing -- drove the monthly decline.

However, manufacturing orders have almost stabilized after weighing heavily on the Index since 2022, and the yield spread contributed positively for the first time since November 2022.

Overall, just four of the LEI’s 10 components were negative in January. In addition, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates continued to trend upward, signaling milder obstacles to US economic activity ahead.

We currently forecast that real GDP for the US will expand by 2.3% in 2025, with stronger growth in the first half of the year.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 15, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 15, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 219,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 214,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 215,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Housing Starts During January 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for January 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,400,000

• Actual: 1,366,000

Month-on-Month Change: -9.83% (-149,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -0.73% (-10,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,400,000

• Actual: 1,483,000

Month-on-Month Change: +0.067% (+1,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -1.7%  (-379,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.2%
Actual: +0.3

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: 0.5%
Actual: +1.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.7%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
JANUARY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
JANUARY 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for January 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for January 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: -0.883% (-6,447,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During January 2025: 723,853,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +4.2% (+$29,157,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru January 2025
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 8, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 8, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 213,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 220,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for January 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.4%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.5% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.4% 

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.4% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +2.3% (prior = +1.8%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +4.1% (prior = +4.0%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JANUARY 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025:

=========================================

CPI During January 2025: 317.671

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.4%

->  Actual: +0.655% (+2.066 points)

 > Year-on-Year Change: +3.00% (+9.254 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%

 - > Actual: +0.57% (+1.835 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.26% (+10.219 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During January 2024: 308.417

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JANUARY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

======================================== 

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Employment Situation Report for January 2025

The Employment Situation Report for January 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +143,000

Previous Month (revised): 307,000
One Year Previous: 119,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.0%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.5%
Previous Month: 7.5%
12 Months Previous: 7.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.477% (+$0.17)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +4.06% (+$1.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.183% (+$2.23)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.76% (+$44.30)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.1 hours
Previous Month: 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
JANUARY 2005 THRU JANUARY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 1, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 1, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 218,000

• Actual: 219,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 208,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December 2024

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for December 2024 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,500,000

• Actual:   7,600,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 8,156,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,889,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -14.5% (-1,289,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,462,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.62% (-325,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,197,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -7.04% (-242,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,771,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +10.21% (+164,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,269,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.77% (-150,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening
December 2009 thru December 2024

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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U.S. Factory Shipments During December 2024

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for December 2024:

========

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.888% (-5,181,000,000)

========

• December 2024 New Shipments: $578,508,000,000.
  
  
• November 2024 New Shipments: $583,689,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  -$3,201,000,000 | -0.55% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
DECEMBER 2024 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q4, 2024

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024:

============

Previous quarter: +3.1%

• Actual: +2.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: GDP - Quarter-to-Quarter Change
Q4, 2024 - First Estimate / UPDATE

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 25, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 25, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 207,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 223,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 212,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Leading Economic Index for December 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December 2024:
==============

Index for December 2024: 101.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.1% (-0.1 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.45% (-1.5 points)

==============

• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.0
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
DECEMBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline.

Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December.

Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead.

Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of January 18, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on January 18, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 223,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 217,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 213,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2024

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for December 2024:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1

Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.2%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: FLAT
Actual: +0.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.8 %

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
DECEMBER 2024 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index
DECEMBER 2024 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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