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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, September 29, 2023

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 23, 2023

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims


Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 23, 2023:

====================

Predicted: 210,000

  • Actual: 204,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 202,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 211,000

====================

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Saturday, September 23, 2023

Leading Economic Index for August 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for August 2023: 105.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.7%

  • Actual: -0.38% (-0.4 point)

  • Change from 12 Months Ago: -9.45% (-11.0 points)

==============
  • LEI for July 2023: 105.8

  • LEI for June 2023: 106.1

  • LEI for May 2023: 106.7

  • LEI for April 2023: 107.4

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.3

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.6

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - August 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
August 2023 UPDATE

==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4% in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3% in July. The LEI is down 3.8% over the six-month period between February and August 2023 -- little changed from its 3.9% contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023.)

'With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2023, and then fall to 0.8% in 2024.'..
."
==============
 

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Thursday, September 21, 2023

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of September 16, 2023

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims


Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on September 16, 2023:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

  • Actual: 201,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 221,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 217,000

====================

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Friday, September 15, 2023

Import and Export Price Indexes for August 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for August 2023:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading:+0.1% (revised)
Actual: +0.5%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -3.0%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: +0.5% (revised)
Actual: +1.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -5.5%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.


Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

 CHART: Import Price Index - August 2023 Update

CHART: Import Price Index
August 2023 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index - August 2023 Update

CHART: Export Price Index
 August 2023 Update

===
============


===============

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Thursday, September 14, 2023

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month (revised): +0.4%
Actual: +0.7%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.6%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.0%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


 ==============

 CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - August 2023 Update

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
August 2023 Update

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Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2023:


=========================================

CPI During August 2023: 307.026

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.437% (+1.335 points)

  • Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.67% (+10.855 points)


=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.23% (+0.701 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.35% (+12.925 points)


=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August 2022: 296.171

========================================

 
CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - August 2023 Update
CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
August 2023 Update

========================================

 


=========================================


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Friday, September 01, 2023

Employment Situation Report for August 2023

Employment Situation Report for August 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +187,000
Previous Month (Revised): 157,000
One Year Previous: 352,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.8%
Previous Month: 3.5%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.1%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 7.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.237% (+$0.08)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.29% (+$1.39)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.53% (+$6.13)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.98% (+$44.57)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.3%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Month-to-Month Change In Nonfarm Employment - August 2023 Update
CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
August 2023 Update


   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================


=================== 

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Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July 2023

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for July 2023 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 9,500,000
  • Actual:    8,827,000
-------------------------
  • Previous Month (revised): 9,165,000

  • One Year Previous: 11,380,000

  • Change from one year previous: -22.43% (-2,553,000)


=============

HIRES: 5,773,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -8.94% (-567,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,549,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -11.63% (-467,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,555,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +3.87% (+58,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS §: 5,483,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -6.5% (-381,000)

=============
 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:


"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."


=============

CHART: Job Openings Rate - July 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Job Openings Rate
 July 2023 UPDATE

=============


============= 

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Thursday, August 24, 2023

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of August 19, 2023

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims


Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on August 19, 2023:

====================

Predicted: 235,000

  • Actual: 230,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

  • Previous Week (revised): 240,000
  • 4-Week Moving Average: 236,750

====================


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Wednesday, August 23, 2023

New Home Sales During July 2023

The July 2023 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Previous Month (revised): 684,000
  • Actual New Home Sales: 714,000

------------------------------------------------------

  • Change from 1 Month Previous: +30,000 units (+4.39%)

  • Change from 1 Year Previous: +171,000 units (+31.49%)


------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During July 2023: $436,700 
 

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During July 2023: $513,000

------------------------------------------------------

Inventory: 437,000 (7.3 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: New Home Sales - July 2023 Update
CHART: New Home Sales
July 2023 Update

================================


================================


Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

================================


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Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Existing Home Sales During July 2023

The Existing Home Sales report for July 2023 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,160,000

  • Actual: 4,070,000
======================

  •  Change from Previous Month: -2.16% (-9,000 homes)

  •  Change from A Year Ago: -16.6% (-81,000 homes)
==========

Inventory: 1,110,000 (3.3 months supply.)

==========

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

  • Median Price: $406,700

  • Price Change from A Year Ago: +1.93% (+$7,000)


------------------------------------------------------ 

==========


==========

From Today's Report:

"...'Two factors are driving current sales activity – inventory availability and mortgage rates,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Unfortunately, both have been unfavorable to buyers.'

'Most homeowners continue to enjoy large wealth gains from recent years with little concern about home price declines,' Yun said. 'However, many renters are concerned as they’re facing growing affordability challenges because of high interest rates.'

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.09% as of August 17. That’s up from 6.96% the prior week and 5.13% one year ago.
.."

==================


==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales - July 2023 UPDATE

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
July 2023 UPDATE


==================





==================

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Friday, August 18, 2023

Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for July 2023:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading:-0.1% (revised)
Actual: +0.4%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -4.4%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading: -0.7% (revised)
Actual: +0.7%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -7.9%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.


Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

 CHART: Import Price Index  July 2023 Update

CHART: Import Price Index
 July 2023 Update

================= 

HART: Export Price Index  July 2023 Update

CHART: Export Price Index
 July 2023 Update

===
============


===============

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Tuesday, August 15, 2023

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for July 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for July 2023:

Predicted: +0.5%
  • Actual:  +0.73%(+$5,042,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

  • Estimated Retail Sales During July 2023: $696,354,000,000
  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +3.17% (+$21,422,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly January 2022 Thru July 2023 Seasonally Adjusted
CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2022 Thru July 2023
Seasonally Adjusted

=================

=================

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Monday, August 14, 2023

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2023

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for July 2023 was released this morning:

Previous Month (revised): FLAT
Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +0.8%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.1%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.7%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.


 ==============

 CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - July 2023 Update

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
July 2023 Update

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Saturday, August 12, 2023

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2023:


=========================================

CPI During July 2023: 305.691

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.191% (+0.582 point)

  • Change From 12 Months Ago: +3.18% (+9.415 points)


=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.16% (+0.492 point)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.65% (+13.756 points)


=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During July 2022: 296.276

========================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - July 2023 Update

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
July 2023 Update

========================================

 


=========================================

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Friday, August 04, 2023

Employment Situation Report for July 2023

Employment Situation Report for July 2023 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +187,000
Previous Month (Revised): 185,000
One Year Previous: 568,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.5%
Previous Month: 3.6%
12 Months Previous: 3.5%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.7%
Previous Month: 6.9%
12 Months Previous: 6.8%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.417% (+$0.14)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.4%
Actual: +4.361% (+$1.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.125% (+$1.44)


Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.46% (+$38.66)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.1%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.4 hours
Actual: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Month-to-Month Change In Nonfarm Employment - July 2023 Update
CHART: Month-to-Month Change
In Nonfarm Employment
July 2023 Update


   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================


=================== 

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Thursday, July 27, 2023

New Home Sales During June 2023

The June 2023 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Predicted: 710,000
  • Actual New Home Sales: 697,000

------------------------------------------------------

  • Change from 1 Month Previous: -18,000 units (-2.517%)

  • Change from 1 Year Previous: +134,000 units (+23.801%)


------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During June 2023: $415,400 
 

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During June 2023: $494,700

------------------------------------------------------

Inventory: 432,000 (7.4 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

------------------------------------------------------

================================

 CHART: New Home Sales - June 2023 Update

CHART: New Home Sales
June 2023 Update

================================


================================


Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

================================


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Thursday, July 20, 2023

Leading Economic Index for June 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for June 2023: 106.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.7%
  • Actual: -0.748% (-0.8 point)

  • Change from 12 Months Ago: -9.39% (-11.0 points)

==============

  • LEI for May 2023: 106.9

  • LEI for April 2023: 107.5

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.3

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.6

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - June 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
June 2023 UPDATE

==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023 -- a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8% contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022).

'The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months -- the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the run-up to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead.

We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.'..
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Tuesday, July 18, 2023

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for June 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for June 2023:

Predicted: +0.5%
  • Actual:  +0.194%(+$1,338,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

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  • Estimated Retail Sales During June 2023: $689,499,000,000
  • Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.49% (+$10,123,000,000)

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CHART: Retail Sales During - June 2023
CHART: Retail Sales During June 2023

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Saturday, July 15, 2023

Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2023

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for June 2023:

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Import Prices
Previous Reading:-0.4% (revised)
Actual: -0.2%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -6.1%

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Export Prices
Previous Reading: -1.9%
Actual: -0.9%

Change From 12 Months Previous: -12.0%

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The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

  • Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
  • Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.


Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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 CHART: Import Price Index - June 2023 Update

CHART: Import Price Index
 June 2023 Update

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CHART: Export Price Index - June 2023 Update

CHART: Export Price Index
 June 2023 Update

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