Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for  December 2022:

=========================================

CPI During December 2022: 296.797

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: FLAT
Actual: -0.307% (-0.914 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +6.454% (+17.995 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.171% (+0.513 points)

Change From 12 Months Previous: +5.708% (+16.205 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During December 2021: 278.802

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
December 2022 Update 

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of December 17, 2022

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on December 17, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 216,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 214,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 221,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of December 16, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on December 16, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -5,900,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -5,300,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 418,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
   
  

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Housing Starts During November 2022

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for November 2022:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,500,000
Actual: 1,427,000

Change From Previous Month: -0.49% (-7,000 New Units)

• Change From One Year Previous: -16.35% (-279,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,400,000
Actual: 1,342,000

Change From Previous Month: -11.24% (-170,000 New Permits)

• Change From One Year Previous: -22.38%  (-387,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
November 2022 Update

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for  November 2022:

=========================================

CPI During November 2022: 297.711

=========================================

Predicted: FLAT
Actual: -0.1% (-0.301 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +7.11% (+19.763 points)
  

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During November 2021: 277.948

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for October 2022

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for October 2022 was released by the Labor Department this morning:

=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 10,500,000

• Actual:    10,334,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 10,687,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 11,094,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -6.85% (-760,000)
  

=============


Hires: 6,012,000

-----------

Quits: 4,026,000

-----------

Layoffs + Discharges: 1,387,000 

-----------

Total Separations ^§: 5,683,000

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Job Openings Rate
October 2022 UPDATE

  =============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 25, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on November 25, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -12,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,000,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 419,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
   
  

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 18, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on November 18, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,700,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -2,400,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 431,700,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
   
  

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for October 2022

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for October 2022:

Predicted: +1.0%

• Actual:  +1.272%(+$8,724,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Estimated Retail Sales During October 2022: $694,518,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.27% (+$53,059,000,000)

=================

 

Retail Sales for October 2022

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

 

 

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Import and Export Price Indexes for October 2022

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for October 2022:

===============

Import Prices
Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -0.2%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +4.2%

===============

Export Prices
Predicted: -0.5%
Actual: -0.3%

Change From 12 Months Previous: +6.9%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2022

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for October 2022 was released this morning:

Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +8.0%

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +5.4%

=============

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2022:

=========================================

CPI During October 2022: 298.012

=========================================

Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +0.406% (+1.204 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +7.745% (+21.423 points)
  

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During October 2021: 276.589

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of November 5, 2022

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on November 5, 2022:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 225,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 218,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 218,750

====================

From Today's Report

"...The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending October 22 were in Puerto Rico (1.9), California (1.8), New Jersey (1.8), Alaska (1.6), New York (1.3), Massachusetts (1.2), Rhode Island (1.2), Nevada (1.1), and Oregon (1.1).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending October 29 were in California (+1,989), Oregon (+1,541), Washington (+693), Illinois (+457), and Minnesota (+456), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,534), Kentucky (-1,007), North Carolina (-659), Arkansas (-517), and South Carolina (-471)..."

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of November 4, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on November 4, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,900,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +5,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 440,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
   
  

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Employment Situation Report for October 2022

Employment Situation Report for October 2022 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +261,000

Previous Month (Revised): 315,000
One Year Previous: 677,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.7%
Previous Month: 3.5%
12 Months Previous: 4.6%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.8%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 8.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.37% (+$0.12)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +4.73% (+$1.47)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.37% (+$4.14)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.82% (+$41.38)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.2%
Previous Month: 62.3%
12 Months Previous: 61.7%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.5 hours
Actual: 34.5 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

 

CHART: U-3 Unemployment Rate
October 2022 Update

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q3, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2022:

============

Predicted: +2.5%

• Actual: +2.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: GDP - Q3 2022 - First Estimate

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  
  

============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of October 21, 2022

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on October 21, 2022 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +2,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +9,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 439,900,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
   
  

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New Home Sales During September 2022

The September 2022 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Predicted: 600,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 603,000

------------------------------------------------------

• Change from One Month Previous: -74,000 units (-10.93%)
  
  
• Change from One Year Previous: -129,000 units (-17.62%)

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During September 2022: $470,600 
 

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During September 2022: $517,700

------------------------------------------------------

Inventory: 462,000 (9.2 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

------------------------------------------------------

================================

 

CHART: New Home Sales
September 2022 Update

================================

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================

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Leading Economic Index for September 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September 2022 this morning:

==============

Index for September 2022: 115.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%

• Actual: -0.43% (-0.5 point)

==============

• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

==============

 

 

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
September 2022 UPDATE

 

==============
 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before year end,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. 'The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread.

Amid high inflation, slowing labor markets, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.5 percent year-over-year in 2022, before slowing further in the first half of next year.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2022:

=========================================

CPI During September 2022: 296.808

=========================================

Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: +0.215% (+0.637 point)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.202% (+22.498 points)
  

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During September 2021: 274.310

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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