Gross Domestic Product (GDP): FINAL Estimate for Q4, 2024 + Full Year 2024

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third and final estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024, and the full-year reading on GDP:

============

Previous quarter: +3.1%

• Actual: +2.4%
  
• >>>> Full Year: +2.8%
  

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

 

CHART: Contributions to real GDP
by Industry Group - Q4, 2024

============

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

============

 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 22, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 22, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 224,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 225,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 224,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 21, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 21, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,300,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,600,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 433,600,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 14, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 14, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +1,700,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -8,100,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 437,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 15, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 15, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 223,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 221,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 227,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Housing Starts During February 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for February 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Predicted: 1,400,000

• Actual: 1,501,000

Month-on-Month Change: +11.19% (+151,000 New Units)

• Year-on-Year Change: -2.91% (-45,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Predicted: 1,450,000

• Actual: 1,456,000

Month-on-Month Change: -1.15.% (-17,000 New Permits)

• Year-on-Year Change: -6.85%  (-107,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.

=================

CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)

=================

Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2025

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning released its report on U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for February 2025:

===============

Import Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +0.3%
Actual: +0.4

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.0%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +1.9%

===============

Export Prices
Previous Reading, revised: +1.3%
Actual: +0.1%

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +2.1%

    -- Year-on-year previous reading = +2.7%

===============
 
The above percentages, highlighted in yellow, represent the month-to-month change in prices for:

• Imports: the cost of goods produced in other countries and sold in the United States.
• Exports: the cost of goods produced in the USA and sold in other countries.

Together, these indexes offer insight into the status of inflation in the United States, and for the global economy as well. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=================

CHART: Import Price Index
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

================= 

CHART: Export Price Index

FEBRUARY 2025 Update

===============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

===============

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for February 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for February 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): -1.2%

• Actual: +0.195% (+1,408,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During February 2025: $722,708,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +3.11% (+$21,776,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru February 2025
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for February 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): +0.6%

• Actual: FLAT

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.2% 
(prior - revised = +3.5%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.3% 

• Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3% 
(prior - revised = +3.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +1.7% (prior = +2.3%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.9% (prior = +4.1%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 8, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 8, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 220,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 222,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 226,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for FEBRUARY 2025

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for February 2025:
=========

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 100.7

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -2.04 % (-2.1 points.)

• Change from A Year Ago: +12.64 % (+11.3 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
FEBRUARY 2025 Update 

========= 

CHART: NFIB Uncertainty Index
 FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE

========= 

From Today's Report:

"...The Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.1 points in February to 100.7, the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 but is 4.4 points off its most recent peak of 105.1 in December. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 104, the second highest reading. The Optimism Index moderated in February while their level of uncertainty spiked. Small business owners have experienced uncertainty whiplash over the last four months with the Index falling from October’s 110 reading to 86 in December and then back up to 104...

...Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons. Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall. Inflation remains a major problem, ranked second behind the top problem, labor quality..."

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 102.8.

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 89.4.

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of March 7, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on March 7, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +1,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -11,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 435,200,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February 2025:

=========================================

CPI During February 2025: 319.082

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.4%

->  Actual: +0.44% (+1.411 points)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.82% (+8.756 points)

[prior = +3.00%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.4%

 - > Actual: +0.44% (+1.41 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +3.12% (+9.833 points)

[prior = +3.26%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During February 2024: 310.326

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
FEBRUARY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================  

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for January 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for January 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,600,000

• Actual:   7,740,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,508,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,468,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -8.6% (-728,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,393,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.21% (-179,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,266,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.59% (-87,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,635,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.37% (-57,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,252,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.26% (-177,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
JANUARY 2010 thru JANUARY 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Employment Situation Report for February 2025

The Employment Situation Report for February 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +151,000

Previous Month (revised): 125,000
One Year Previous: 222,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.1%
Previous Month: 4.0%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.0%
Previous Month: 7.5%
12 Months Previous: 7.3%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.28% (+$0.10)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +4.02% (+$1.39)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.28% (+$3.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.42% (+$40.49)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.1 hours
Previous Month: 34.1 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
FEBRUARY 2005 THRU FEBRUARY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 1, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 1, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 221,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 242,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 224,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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U.S. Factory Shipments During January 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for January 2025:

========

Predicted: +1.5%

• Actual: +1.68% (+9,775,000,000)

========

• January 2025 New Shipments: $589,935,000,000.
  
  
• December 2024 New Shipments: $580,160,000,000.
  

========

• Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):
  
  +$18,677,000,000 | +3.5% (not seasonally adjusted)
  

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
JANUARY 2025 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of February 28, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on  February 28, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,600,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -14,800,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 433,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Durable Goods Orders During January 2025

The Durable Goods Orders report for January 2025 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

================

Predicted: +2.0%

• New Orders: $286,002,000,000 (+$8,655,000,000 [+3.12%])

================

CHART: Durable Goods Orders
JANUARY 2025 UPDATE

================

The yellow-highlighted figures represent the month-on-month change in new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers, along with both the dollar and month-to-month percentage change.

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 22, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 22, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 242,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 220,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 224,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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