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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, December 06, 2018

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for November 2018

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for November 2018:

Predicted: 59.1%
Actual: 60.7% (+0.4 point month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 60.3%

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The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service Categories Include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

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From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 106TH consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

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Here's a sampling of comments made by survey participants:

  •    “Relatively stable business conditions. Input costs are corn- and soy-based, so the ongoing trade dispute with China presents challenges and opportunities. The chief dilemmas are: When will the dispute be resolved, and what will the market reaction be?”
     (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting)

  •     “Commercial construction is strong. Employment is struggling due to lack of qualified talent.”
     (Construction)

  •     “Midway through Q4, and on track for another good year. Conditions are favorable and look to remain so going into 2019.”
     (Finance and Insurance)

  •     “Business is booming. Labor costs are rising.”
     (Information)

  •     “November continues our busy season, at a higher rate than we anticipated. Both internal and supplier resources have had success gaining some ground back on backlog of orders. A large volume of orders is always expected this time of year, but this year, it has been busier than our organization and suppliers anticipated.”
     (Management of Companies and Support Services)

  •     “Business continues to improve internationally, but there is a slowdown in domestics offshore and leveling in domestic onshore, which directly affects our business. There are concerns about domestic trucking and international flat rack availability. There is also discussion of implementation of trucking e-log requirements in Mexico sometime in 2019 or 2020. That could affect our trucking providers’ lead time for delivery-support services in the Mexican region.”
     (Other Services)

  •     “The imposition of and threats to impose tariffs are having a negative effect on several capital-improvement projects in progress. The contractors have submitted change order requests for those items impacted, especially those with a steel component. The increases are not expected or budgeted for.”
     (Public Administration)

  •     “The business is preparing for the later phases of tariffs by slowing down growth and capital investment until the future becomes clearer. We are starting to pull months of inventory in before the next round of tariffs hit, so there is a lot of activity on our logistics side.”
     (Retail Trade)

  •     “We are still experiencing low service levels with transportation.”
     (Wholesale Trade)

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ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index (NMI®) - 12 Month History - November 2018 Update
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) - 12 Month History - November 2018 Update

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