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Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, October 03, 2019

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for September 2019

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for September 2019:

Predicted: 55.5%
Actual: 52.6% (-3.8 points month-on-month change)


Previous month: 56.4%


The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service Categories Include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).


From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 116th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."


Here's a sampling of comments made by survey participants:

  •    'Tariffs are adding uncertainty to short-term pricing on certain commodities, but suppliers are finding alternate solutions. The bigger impacts appear to be on demand side, which is driving short-term favorability in certain domestic markets.'
     (Accommodation + Food Services)

  •     'Demand has been variable: up one month, down the next. I think customers are watching our input costs and buying ahead on the dips, to the extent that contracts allow.'
     (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting)

  •     'We are very busy right now [and] expect to be so for the next 12 months. We are still very shorthanded with qualified labor.'

  •     'Gearing up for the fourth quarter of 2019. On track to end the year generally as anticipated, considering interest-rate changes, trade and tariff issues and other economic indicators and trends.'
     (Finance + Insurance)

  •     'We continue with low patient census, which affects our orders and revenue.'
     (Health Care + Social Assistance)

  •     'As employee cost [wages] are increasing in this better economy, it is getting harder to fight price increases on goods and services.'

  •     'Costs are going up, from labor to chemicals to metals.'
     (Management of Companies + Support Services)

  •     'While Chinese tariffs are understandable, they are impacting our supply chain decisions. We are actively pursuing alternate sources for our China-based production. At this point, we have not passed on tariff costs to our customers, but we are evaluating all options.'
     (Other Services)

  •     'Business continues to pick up as we quickly approach Q4. Week by week, we inch closer to a much-anticipated holiday retail season, which requires not only last-minute buys, but a push to fill open positions.'
     (Retail Trade)



ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) - 12 Month History September 2019 Update
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) - 12 Month History
September 2019 Update


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