Economy: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for November 2019

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) released their Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI®) for November 2019:

Predicted: 54.5%

Actual: 53.9% (-0.8 point month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 54.7%

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The NMI is a reliable barometer of the U.S. services sector; above 50% implies expansion, while a reading below 50% implies that the services sector contracted.

Service Categories Include: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation + Warehousing; Information; Finance + Insurance; Real Estate, Rental + Leasing; Professional, Scientific + Technical Services; Management of Companies + Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care + Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment + Recreation; Accommodation + Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment + Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning + Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services).

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From today' report:

"...Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 118th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM®Report On Business®..."

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Here's a sampling of comments made by survey participants:

“Generally sluggish demand in the past month; back to summertime levels.”
(Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing + Hunting)

“Activity is still up in all areas, but primarily in commercial construction.”
(Construction)

“No significant changes in business conditions. Closing out current projects and initiatives. Preparing for year-end and the beginning of 2020.”
(Finance + Insurance)

“Lower reimbursement rates will continue to affect funding levels.”
(Health Care + Social Assistance)

“Tariffs are impacting prices for a broad array of products used in the delivery of services and completion of projects for our clients. Upward pressure is impacting suppliers and their pricing to customers. We are seeing no relief from our customers, so we’re being negatively impacted by tariff-driven price increases. Numerous suppliers report looking for alternative manufacturing/supply locations outside of China, but with limited or no success so far.”
(Management of Companies + Support Services)

“Tariffs on steel and aluminum are still having a negative impact on costs. Oil and gas business is increasing, which is favorably impacting our orders.”
(Other Services)

“We’re optimistic [because the] economy appears to be on autopilot, despite all the political distractions. Stock market seems invincible, [and the] trade war with China appears to be in a stalemate. Job growth appears to be reaching an equilibrium point. Final economic demand appears strong, with positive spend forecast for the holidays.”
(Professional, Scientific + Technical Services)

“Business activity is lower after the end of the 2019 fiscal year. The federal government is under a continuing resolution appropriations bill. This means we have not received a full annual budget, and all spending is restricted to past operational budgets for only necessary items.”
(Public Administration)

“Fourth-quarter seasonal retail volume increase is affecting labor hours, temporary labor demand and availability of short-term rental trailers to compensate for overflow.”
(Transportation + Warehousing)

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