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Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Latest GDPNow Real Gross Domestic Product Forecast for Q3:2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its latest GDPNow forecast for the growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2016.


Latest Forecast for Q3, 2016: +2.1%


Previous Reading (October 19, 2016): +2.0%


GDPNow: October 27, 2016
GDPNow: October 27, 2016


From Today's Report:

"...The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.1% on October 27, up from 2.0% on October 19. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.15 percentage points to 0.07 percentage points after yesterday's Advance Economic Indicators release from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.23 percentage points to 0.03 percentage points after the Census Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators release and its advance durable manufacturing report this morning..."

About The GDPNow Forecast Model:

"...The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an 'advance' (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymaker have the Fed Board staff projection of this 'advance' estimate at their disposal...

...The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to 'nowcast' GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add 'color' to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids..."

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