Economy: ISM Manufacturing Index for November 2019

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for November 2019:

Predicted: 49.4%

Actual: 48.1% (-0.2 point month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 48.3%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November, and the overall economy grew for the 127th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

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The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:

“Business level is similar to October.”
(Computer & Electronic Products)

“Chemical industry has been slow globally, but the curve seems to be flattening.”
(Chemical Products)

“Economic uncertainty continues. Our outlook on future business is cautious, yet positive.”
(Transportation Equipment)

“Economy is holding up. Business is staying constant. The same challenges persist — foreign exchange, trade uncertainty and trend changes [for example, sugar reduction].”
(Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

“Slowdown in business has us revising our 2020-21 capital spend.”
(Petroleum & Coal Products)

“The order book continues to shrink below our forecast levels. We’re unsure at this point how much of the slowdown is tied to certain events [like the General Motors strike], year-end inventory reductions by customers, or a worsening economy. We don't expect clarity on this until early 2020, when we expect to either see restocking orders [a good sign] or not [a bad sign].”
(Fabricated Metal Products)

“Demand has stabilized for the last half of [the fourth quarter], and production will be stable for the rest of this year.”
(Machinery)

“Heading into the holiday season, we are seeing the backlog decrease as new orders for 2020 seem lighter than in past years.”
(Plastics & Rubber Products)

“Markets have downshifted further. The continued confusion surrounding China trade has kept export markets on edge. Profits are elusive. Cash-flow planning is paramount. The general economy is slowing down.”
(Wood Products)