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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Monday, March 02, 2026

ISM Manufacturing Index for FEBRUARY 2026

The Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for February, 2026:

=========

Predicted: 52.0%

  • Actual: 52.4% (-0.2 point month-on-month change)

=========

Previous month: 52.6%

=========

Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the second straight month but only the third time in 40 months, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report....."

=========

The Following Is A Sampling Of Quotes
From A Diverse Pool Of U.S. Manufacturers:


  • Today, American produced commodities like steel and aluminum are the highest priced in the world, by far. Hence, the Section 232 tariff policy is having the exact opposite effect of their intention on an American manufacturer like us: It is raising prices while lowering demand and profitability.
     [Transportation Equipment]
  • “Economic activity seems to be also challenging for this year. Some recovery in certain sectors in the economy but still lot of cost pressures and soft demand. Cost discipline is the priority.”
     [Chemical Products]

  • “January sales continued to provide positive indications for growth opportunities. Data center, health care, and food and beverages remain positive growth areas. We continue to receive price increase notifications from suppliers based on unsupported tariff claims and are expanding corporate staff to support sales growth.”
     [Chemical Products]

  • “South American instability has begun to be a factor for our suppliers and inventory management.”
     [Petroleum & Coal Products]
     
  • “Pricing for outside purchases has stabilized. We are spending significant effort to work with our supply base to mitigate tariff impacts. Backlog is at a healthy level.”
     [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
     
  • “Overall orders and supply footprint are improving. As we review customer demand, we are also taking several categories of established materials and supplies out to RFP for review and cost improvements -- in particular, printed circuit assemblies, plastics, sheet metal assemblies and motorized assemblies. This will help ease the burden of tariff and customer impacts as we broaden our supplier base to a more regional footprint.”
     [Computer & Electronic Products]

  • Continue to be impacted by tariffs. Seeing metals prices rise too. Business is steady, but domestic growth is slower than expected.”
     [Computer & Electronic Products]
     
  • “Business was slow in January. Many orders pulled into end of 2025 to meet revenue goals. Order book is strong going forward.”
     [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]
     
  • “Tariff policy changes affect total acquisition costs and purchasing source decisions. So far this year, tariff instability still exists. Due to the tariffs, most raw materials used in manufacturing, such as steel and wire, need to be sourced domestically, and the cost keeps going up.”
     [Machinery]
     
  • “Business is improving by the week. Backlog is growing, and new opportunities are everywhere. Monthly shipments are still lower than planned, but improving. Over the past five years, we spent thousands trying to attract new employees and had almost zero responses. In the last six months, however, we’ve been able to hire experienced engineers, computer numerical control (CNC) operators, and young people wanting to become CNC machinists.”
     [Fabricated Metal Products]

==========

CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index February 2026 Update
CHART: ISM Manufacturing Index
February 2026 Update
=========

DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index 12-Month History February 2026 Update
DATA: ISM Manufacturing Index
12-Month History
February 2026 Update
=========

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Friday, February 27, 2026

Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JANUARY 2026

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for JANUARY, 2026:

===============================
Previous Month (revised): +0.4%

  • Actual: +0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.0%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when Food, Energy and Trade Services are removed:

Previous Month (un
revised): +0.4% 

  • Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.4% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.5%)


===============================


CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index   Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - JANUARY 2026 Update
CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
JANUARY 2026 Update

==============

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Thursday, February 26, 2026

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 21, 2026

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 21, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 213,000

  • Actual: 212,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 208,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 220,250

====================

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Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending February 20, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 20, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +15,900,000 Barrels (+1.9%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +25,700,000 Barrels (+3.11%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 851,200,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Tuesday, February 24, 2026

U.S. Factory Shipments During DECEMBER 2025

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for December, 2025:

========

Predicted: -0.5%

  • Actual: -0.7% (-4,332,000,000)

========

  • December, 2025 New Orders: $617,527,000,000.

  • November, 2025 New Orders: $621,859,000,000.


========

  • Change from 12 Months Ago (Year-on-Year):

    +$36,571,000,000 | +6.24% (not seasonally adjusted)

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the seasonally adjusted, month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders - DECEMBER 2025 Update
CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
DECEMBER 2025 Update

=============


=============

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Saturday, February 21, 2026

PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for DECEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%
  • Actual: +0.4%
=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading
 (revised)+0.4%

  • Actual: +0.3%

    • > Disposable Personal Income (DPI): +0.3% 

    • >> Real DPI: FLAT* 

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

CHART: Producer Price Index Final Demand (PPI-FD) 12-Month Percent Change - SEPTEMBER 2024 Update 


Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading 
(revised): +0.2%

  • Actual: +0.4% 
  • Change from 12 months previous: +2.9%
    (prior - revised = +2.8%)
=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading 
(revised)+0.2%
  • Actual: +0.4%
  • Change from 12 months previous: +3.0%
    (prior - revised = +2.8%)
=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================
 CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending - DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE
CHART: Changes In Monthly Consumer Spending
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE
=====================
*Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Friday, February 20, 2026

Leading Economic Index for DECEMBER 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December, 2025:
==============

Index for December, 2025: 97.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.2%

  • Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point Month-on-Month)

    • Change from 12 Months Ago: -3.94% (-4.0 points)

============== 

  • LEI for November 2025: 97.8  

  • LEI for October 2025: 98.1
     
  • LEI for September 2025: 98.3 
     
  • LEI for August 2025: 98.5 

  • LEI for July 2025: 98.8

  • LEI for June 2025: 98.8

  • LEI for May 2025: 99.1
     
  • LEI for April 2025: 99.1

  • LEI for March 2025: 100.4

  • LEI for February 2025: 101.2

  • LEI for January 2025: 101.4

  • LEI for December 2024: 101.6

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™
==============
CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signal - DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE
==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI registered its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, indicating continued softness in the economy in early 2026,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Alongside a rise in building permits, positive contributions to the LEI in December were led by the index’s financial components, with the yield spread notably turning positive in both November and December.

'However, persistently weak consumer expectations indicators and the ISM® New Orders Index made the largest negative contributions to the LEI in December. Labor market data also weighed on the Index, with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI signals weaker economic activity at the start of this year. The Conference Board projects a slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026, with GDP set to expand by 2.1% YOY in 2026, from a forecasted 2.2% in 2025.'.
.."

==============
 

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Housing Starts During DECEMBER 2025

The U.S. Commerce Department this morning released its Housing Starts report for December 2025:

---------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,322,000

  • Actual: 1,404,000

Month-on-Month Change: +6.2% (+82,000 New Units)

  • Year-on-Year Change: -7.27% (-110,000 New Units)

---------------------------------------------------

Building Permits:
Previous Reading (revised): 1,415,000

  • Actual: 1,448,000

Month-on-Month Change: +4.32% (+60,000 New Permits)

  • Year-on-Year Change: -2.16%  (-32,000 New Permits)

----------------------------------------------------

Housing Starts: The top, yellow-highlighted figure is a measure of initial construction of single and multi-family residential units in the United States for the indicated month. Seasonally adjusted annual rate. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

If you're wondering about the demand for new homes in the United States, or about the American residential construction industry in general, then you should pay attention to the monthly Housing Starts report. This report also offers insight into specific types of consumer spending: when housing starts are up, demand for the stuff that a consumer would purchase for a new home (large appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc.) tends to also rise -- and vice versa.


=================

CHART: Housing Starts + Building Permits + Completions - DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE
CHART: Housing Starts
+ Building Permits
+ Completions
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=================


=================
 

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Thursday, February 19, 2026

New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 14, 2026

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 14, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 210,000

  • Actual: 206,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 229,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 219,000

====================

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Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization During JANUARY 2026

The Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization numbers for January, 2026 were released by the Federal Reserve:

Industrial Production:
Previous Month (revised): +0.2%
Actual: +0.7% Month-on-Month (M/M)

  • Year-on-Year (Y/Y): +2.3%

    --> Y/Y Previous: +2.0%

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Manufacturing:

Previous Month (revised): FLAT
Actual:  +0.6% (M/M)

  • Y/Y : +2.4%

    --> Y/Y Previous: +2.0%

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Capacity Utilization Rate:
Previous Month (revised): 75.7%
Actual:  76.2% (M/M)

  • Y/Y+1.4%

    --> Y/Y Previous: +1.5%

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===============

CHART: Industrial Production + Manufacturing + Capacity Utilization - JANUARY 2026 UPDATE
CHART: Industrial Production
+ Manufacturing
+ Capacity Utilization
JANUARY 2026 UPDATE

 

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Friday, February 13, 2026

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for JANUARY 2026

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, 2026:


=========================================

CPI During January 2026: 325.252

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: FLAT

->  
Actual: +0.37% (+1.198 points)

  • Year-on-Year Change+2.39% (+7.581 points)
[Y-o-Y prior = +2.68%]


=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: FLAT

 - > 
Actual: +0.44% (+1.444 points)

  • Year-on-Year Change: +2.5% (+8.108 points)
[Y-o-Y prior = +2.64%]


=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

  • Healthcare
  • Housing
  • Clothing
  • Communications
  • Education
  • Transportation
  • Food and Beverages
  • Recreation
  • Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During January 2025: 317.671

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index 12-Month Percentage Change - JANUARY 2026 Update
CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JANUARY 2026 Update

========================================

========================================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 7, 2026

Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 7, 2026:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

  • Actual: 227,000
====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 --> Previous Week (revised): 232,000

  • 4-Week Moving Average: 219,500

====================

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Thursday, February 12, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week Ending February 06, 2026

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories


The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on February 06, 2026 was released this morning:

-- Δ from Last Week: +8,500,000 Barrels (+1.02%)

-- Δ from 1-Year Previous: +20,800,000 Barrels (+2.53%)

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 844,000,000 Barrels

  • NB: Δ = Change


Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Employment Situation Report for JANUARY 2026

The Employment Situation Report for January, 2026 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +130,000
Previous Month (revised): +48,000
One-Year Previous: -48,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.3%
Previous Month: 
4.4%
12-Months Previous: 4.0%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.0%
Previous Month:
 8.4%
12-Months Previous: 7.5%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.41% (+$0.15)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.5%
Actual: +3.71% (+$1.33)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: 
+0.7% (+$8.85)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.32% (+$52.79)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.5%
Previous Month: 
62.4%
12-Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.2 hours
One-Year Previous: 34.1 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate - JANUARY 2006 thru JANUARY 2026
CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
JANUARY 2006 thru JANUARY 2026
   ===================
 
 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================


===================

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Tuesday, February 10, 2026

U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for DECEMBER 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for December 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +0.55% (+$4,034,000,000)

  • Actual: -0.016% (-$118,000,000)
=================

The highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month, seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

  • Est. Retail Sales During December 2025: $734,967,000,000
  • Year-On-Year Change: +2.43% (+$17,420,000,000)

=================
CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly January 2006 Thru December 2026 - DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE
CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2006 Thru December 2026
DECEMBER 2025 UPDATE

=================

================= 

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