Leading Economic Index for April 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2025:

==============

Index for April 2025: 99.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -1.00% (-1.0 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -2.26% (-2.3 points)

==============

• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
APRIL 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.

Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for May 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for May 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 50.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -2.68% (-1.4 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -26.48% (-18.3 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2024: 69.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, inching down a scant 1.4 index points following four consecutive months of steep declines. Sentiment is now down almost 30% since January 2025. Slight increases in sentiment this month for independents were offset by a 7% decline among Republicans. While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes.

Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.

Many survey measures showed some signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs, but these initial upticks were too small to alter the overall picture -- consumers continue to express somber views about the economy. The initial reaction so far echoes the very minor increase in sentiment seen after the April 9 partial pause on tariffs, despite which sentiment continued its downward trend.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.5% last month to 7.3% this month. This month’s rise was seen among Democrats and Republicans alike. Long-run inflation expectations lifted from 4.4% in April to 4.6% in May, reflecting a particularly large monthly jump among Republicans. The final release for May will reveal the extent to which the May 12 pause on some China tariffs leads consumers to update their expectations..."

=========

CHART: Consumers Anticipate Rising Unemployment
and Elevated Risks of Personal Job Loss
MAY 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2025

Here is the Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for April 2025:

===============================

Previous Month (revised): FLAT

• Actual: -0.5%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.4% 
(prior - unrevised = +2.7%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month (revised): +0.2% 

• Actual: -0.1%

Change from 12 months previous:  +2.9% 
(prior - unrevised = +3.4%)

===============================

• PPI-FD Goods, Year-on-Year: +0.5% (prior = +0.9%)

• PPI-FD Services, Year-on-Year: +3.3% (prior = +3.6%)

 

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.
 
==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
APRIL 2025 Update

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• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

============== 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for April 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for April 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.7%

• Actual: +0.06% (+417,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During April 2025: $724,131,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +5.16% (+$35,502,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru April 2025
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 10, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 10, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 229,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 229,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 230,500

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 9, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 9, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +3,500,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -15,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 441,800,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for APRIL 2025

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for April 2025:
=========

Predicted: 95.0

• Actual: 95.8

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: -1.64 % (-1.6 points.)

• Change from A Year Ago: +6.8% (+6.1 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
APRIL 2025 Update 

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

 

From the Report:

 

"...The Small Business Optimism Index fell by 1.6 points in April to 95.8, the second consecutive month below the 51-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased, six decreased, and one was unchanged. Expected business conditions and unfilled job openings contributed the most to the decline in the Index. The Uncertainty Index fell 4 points from March to 92...

CREDIT MARKETS
...A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down 1 point from March. Three percent reported that financing and interest rates were their top business problem in April, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. A net 6% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, up 2 points from March. The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.9 percent, unchanged from March. Twenty-six percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 2 points from March. High mortgage rates have slowed housing activity, a damper on GDP growth. But loan availability is good....

..Very few small businesses export their goods and services, but millions acquire imported goods as inputs to their operations and those supply chains are currently at risk. Tariff policy is suddenly and dramatically changing relative prices (costs), and relative prices drive all decisions. Uncertainly remains elevated and thus caution clouds spending, hiring, and investing decisions. Currently, the Uncertainty Index stands at 92, the 51-year average is 68. The average since 2016 is 80..."

=========

• Previous Month's SBOI: 97.4

• SBOI, 12-Months Previous: 89.7

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

=========

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025:

=========================================

CPI During April 2025: 320.795

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.311% (+0.996 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.31% (+7.247 points)

[prior = +2.39%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.27% (+0.882 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.78% (+8.837 points)

[prior = +2.79%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During April 2024: 313.548

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
APRIL 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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Productivity and Labor Costs Report for Q1 2025 (Preliminary)

The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning released its quarterly report on Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter of 2025 (preliminary):

Nonfarm Productivity
Previous:  +1.5%
Actual: -0.8%

• Change from A Year Ago: +1.4%

=============

Unit Labor Costs
Previous: +2.2%
Actual: +5.7%

• Change from A Year Ago: +1.3%

=============

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the quarter-to-quarter change in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for the United States.


For non-farm productivity, a positive number represents an improvement in the efficiency of producing domestic goods and services in the U.S., and therefore can signify a favorable inflationary outlook, and vice versa.

The Unit Labor Costs report measures the costs related to producing each unit of output. A positive number can be a harbinger of rising inflation, and vice versa.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Labor Productivity + Unit Labor Costs
Q1 2021 Through Q1 2025 (Preliminary)

===================   

From Today's Report

 

"...This is the first decline in nonfarm business sector labor productivity since the second quarter of 2022..."

 ===================

 Click here to view the full Labor Department report (PDF.)

===================

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May 9, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

May 9, 2025: Once again, the NASDAQ Composite index ended the week in correction territory...

 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -8.36% (-3,764.66 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -11.13% (-2,244.97 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.88% (-484.24 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 May 9, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 85% (likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on June 18, 2025.

Stay tuned...

==============

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of May 3, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on May 3, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 228,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (unrevised): 241,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 227,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of May 2, 2025

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on May 2, 2025 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -2,000,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -21,200,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 438,400,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report

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May 2, 2025 Stock Market | Market Correction Update

May 2, 2025: The NASDAQ Composite index finished the week in correction...

 

Since Closing @ Record-Highs:

• DJIA: -8.21% (-3,696.61 points) - CHART
  
  

• NASDAQ Composite: -10.89% (-2,196.16 points) - CHART
  
  
• S&P 500: -7.45% (-457.48 points) - CHART

===========

CHART: NASDAQ Composite Index
 May 2, 2025 UPDATE
===============

• Currently, our odds are at 95% (very likely) the Fed will do nothing with the benchmark target range for the fed funds rate at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting on May 7, 2025.

Stay tuned...

==============

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Employment Situation Report for April 2025

The Employment Situation Report for April 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +177,000

Previous Month (revised): 185,000
One Year Previous: 118,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.2%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Month: 7.9%
12 Months Previous: 7.4%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.17% (+$0.06)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.77% (+$1.31)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.167% (+$2.06)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +4.07% (+$48.41)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.7%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.3 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
APRIL 2005 THRU APRIL 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 26, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 26, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 241,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 223,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 226,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for April 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for April 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During March 2025: 105,441

• Previous Month: 275,240

  > Change from previous month: -61.69% (-169,799 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 64,789
  

 > Change from one-year previous: +62.75% (+40,652 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...So far this year, employers have announced 602,493, the highest year-to-date total since 2020 when 1,017,812 job cuts were recorded. It is up 87% from the 322,043 cuts announced during the same period in 2024.

The Government leads all sectors in job cuts this year with 282,227, 281,452 of which are attributed to DOGE-related cost-cutting. This is up 680% from the 36,195 job cuts announced in this sector through April 2024.

In April, the number of job cuts announced in this industry was 2,782. DOGE actions were attributed to 2,731, while the rest were attributed to 'Economic Conditions' and 'Cost-Cutting.'

'DOGE Actions'  lead all job cut reasons in 2025 with 283,172, 2,919 of which occurred in April. Another 6,945 cuts were attributed to 'DOGE Downstream Impact' through April, primarily at Non-Profits and Education organizations. These reasons combined (290,117) make up 48% of all job cuts announced so far in 2025..."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Challenger Report - Announced Jobs Cuts
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

Job Cuts by Reason - USA
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
Copyright © Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: FLAT

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - revised = +3.0%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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