Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2024

The Producer Price Index - Final Demand (PPI-FD) for August 2024 was released this morning:

===============================

Previous Month: +0.1%

• Actual: +0.2%

Change from 12 months previous:  +1.7%  (prior = +2.2%)

=============

Below is the PPI-FD when food, energy and trade services are removed:

Previous Month: +0.3%

• Actual: +0.3%

Change from 12 months previous:  +3.3%  (prior = +3.3%)

===============================

The above, yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, for goods, services and construction in the United States, for final demand.

Final Demand = personal consumption (consumers), exports, government purchases and capital investment.

The PPI-FD is released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 ==============

CHART: Producer Price Index
  Final Demand (PPI-FD)
12-Month Percent Change
AUGUST 2024 Update

==============

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.

==============

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of September 6, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on September 6, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: +800,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -1,400,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 419,100,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2024:

=========================================

CPI During August 2024: 314.796

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.081% (+0.256 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.53 %(+7.77 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.25% (+0.803 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.197% (+9.914 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During August 2023: 307.026

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
AUGUST 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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Employment Situation Report for August 2024

The Employment Situation Report for August 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +142,000

Previous Month (Revised): 89,000
One Year Previous: 210,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.3%
12 Months Previous: 3.8%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 7.8%
12 Months Previous: 7.1%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.4% (+$0.14)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.1%
Actual: +3.83% (+$1.30)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.69% (+$8.31)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.53% (+$41.20)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Month: 62.7%
12 Months Previous: 62.8%

Average Workweek: 34.3 hours
Previous Month: 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
AUGUST 2004 THRU AUGUST 2024

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of August 30, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on August 30, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -6,900,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): +1,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 418,300,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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Durable Goods Orders During July 2024

The Durable Goods Orders report for July 2024 was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

================

Predicted: +5.0%

• Actual: $289,645,000,000 (+$26,074,000,000 [+9.89%])

================

CHART: Durable Goods Orders
JULY 2024 UPDATE

================

The yellow-highlighted figures represent the dollar amount of new orders for durable or hard goods for immediate or future delivery from U.S. manufacturers, along with both the dollar and month-to-month percentage change.

Examples of durable goods: cars, airplanes, computers, furniture -- items that are built to last at least three years.

================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
  

================

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New Home Sales During July, 2024

The July, 2024 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Previous Month (revised): 668,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 739,000

------------------------------------------------------

• Change from 1 Month Previous: +71,000 units (+10.63%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: +39,000 units (+5.57%)

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During July, 2024: $429,800
 

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During July, 2024: $514,800

------------------------------------------------------

Inventory: 462,000 (7.5 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: New Home Sales
JULY, 2024 Update

================================

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================ 

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Existing Home Sales During July 2024

Existing Home Sales report for July 2024 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 3,900,000

• Actual: 3,950,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: +1.28% (+50,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -2.47% (-100,000 homes)

==========

Inventory: 1,330,000 (4.0 months supply.)

==========

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

• Median Price: $422,600
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +4.19% (+$17,000)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

• Click here for historical prices and a chart.
  
  
• Click here for New Home Sales Data.

==========

From Today's Report:

"..."Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "But consumers are definitely seeing more choices, and affordability is improving due to lower interest rates."..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
JULY UPDATE

==================

• Click here to view the NAR data.

==================

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Leading Economic Index for July 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for July 2024: 100.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.19% (-5.5 points)

==============

• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JULY 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread. These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for July 2024

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for July 2024:

=================

Previous Month (revised): -0.2%

• Actual: +0.97% (+6,806,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Estimated Retail Sales During July 2024: $709,668,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +2.66% (+$18,418,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2004 Thru December 2024
JULY 2024 UPDATE - Seasonally Adjusted

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2024

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2024:

=========================================

CPI During July 2024: 314.540

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%

->  Actual: +0.116% (+0.365 point) M/M

 > Year-on-Year Change: +2.89 %(+8.849 points)

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%

 - > Actual: +0.066% (+0.211 point) M/M

> Year-on-Year Change: +3.171% (+9.812 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During July 2023: 305.691

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
JULY 2024 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for JULY 2024

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for July 2024:
=========

Predicted: 92.0

• Actual: 93.7

----------------

• Change from Previous Month: +2.4 % (+2.2 points.)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: +1.96 % (+1.8 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
JULY 2024 Update 

=========

 

From Today's Report:

"...The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.2 points in July to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, this is the 31st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Inflation remains the top issue among small business owners, with 25% reporting it as their single most important problem in operating their business, up four points from June.

'Despite this increase in optimism, the road ahead remains tough for the nation’s small business owners,' said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'Cost pressures, especially labor costs, continue to plague small business operations, impacting their bottom line. Owners are heading towards unpredictable months ahead, not knowing how future economic conditions or government policies will impact them.'..."

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

• The previous month's SBOI was 91.5.

• 12 months previous, the SBOI was 91.9.

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

 
=========

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Employment Situation Report for July 2024

The Employment Situation Report for July 2024 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +114,000

Previous Month (Revised): 179,000
One Year Previous: 184,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.3%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 3.5%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.8%
Previous Month: 7.4%
12 Months Previous: 6.7%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.23% (+$0.08)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.1%
Actual: +3.63% (+$1.23)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: -0.064% (-$0.77)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.33% (+$38.68)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.7%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Workweek: 34.2 hours
Previous Month: 34.3 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
July 2004 THRU July 2024

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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Crude Oil Inventories Report for Week of July 26, 2024

Crude Oil Inventories

The U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report for the week that ended on July 26, 2024 was released this morning:

-- Change from Last Week: -3,400,000 Barrels

-- Change from A Year Ago (Y/Y): -6,700,000 Barrels

-- Current U.S. Crude Oil Stocks: 433,000,000 Barrels

Diminishing crude oil inventories often translate to higher crude oil and fuel prices (and vice versa), but not always.

The report is produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• Click Here for the Weekly Crude Oil Price
  
  

• Click Here for A Crude Oil Price Chart
  
  
• Click Here for the Full Week in Petroleum report
  

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New Home Sales During June, 2024

The June, 2024 New Home Sales report was released by the Commerce Department this morning:

------------------------------------------------------

Previous Month (revised): 621,000

• Actual New Home Sales: 617,000

------------------------------------------------------

• Change from 1 Month Previous: -4,000 units (-0.644%)
  
  
• Change from 1 Year Previous: -49,000 units (-7.36%)

------------------------------------------------------

Median Price for a New Home
During June, 2024: $417,300
 

***************************

Average Price for a New Home
During June, 2024: $487,200

------------------------------------------------------

Inventory: 480,000 (9.1 months supply at current sales rate; seasonally‐adjusted estimate.)

------------------------------------------------------

================================

CHART: New Home Sales
June, 2024 Update

================================

• Click Here for Historical Prices and a Price Chart.
  
  
• Click Here for Existing Home Sales Prices and a Chart.

================================

Compiled jointly by the U.S. Commerce Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the yellow-highlighted figure above is the seasonally adjusted and annualized number of newly-built homes with committed buyers for the indicated month.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The New Home Sales report is watched by economists and investors because it offers insight into the state of the U.S. housing market, and also provides data that can be used to predict sales of large household furniture and appliances like refrigerators, air conditioners, microwave ovens, etc.


================================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF)
  
  

================================ 

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Existing Home Sales During June 2024

Existing Home Sales report for June 2024 was released by The National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) this morning:

======================

Previous Month: 4,110,000

• Actual: 3,890,000

======================

•  Change from Previous Month: -5.35% (-220,000 homes)
  
  
•  Change from A Year Ago: -5.35% (-220,000 homes)

==========

Inventory: 1,320,000 (4.1 months supply.)

==========

The yellow-highlighted, "actual" figure above represents the preliminary, seasonally adjusted annualized sales count of existing homes, co-ops and condominiums for the indicated month. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

------------------------------------------------------

• Median Price: $426,900
  
  
• Price Change from A Year Ago: +4.097% (+$16,800)

------------------------------------------------------ 

==========

• Click here for historical prices and a chart.
  
  
• Click here for New Home Sales Data.

==========

From Today's Report:

"...Existing-home sales fell in June as the median sales price climbed to the highest price ever recorded for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions posted sales declines. Year-over-year, sales waned in the Northeast, Midwest and South but were unchanged in the West.

'We're seeing a slow shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market,' said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. 'Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.'

Total housing inventory registered at the end of June was 1.32 million units, up 3.1% from May and 23.4% from one year ago (1.07 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.7 months in May and 3.1 months in June 2023. The last time unsold inventory posted a four-month supply was May 2020 (4.5 months.)

The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $426,900, an all-time high and an increase of 4.1% from one year ago ($410,100). All four U.S. regions registered price gains.

'Even as the median home price reached a new record high, further large accelerations are unlikely,' Yun added. 'Supply and demand dynamics are nearing a balanced market condition. The months supply of inventory reached its highest level in more than four years.'..."

==================

INFOGRAPHIC: Existing Home Sales
JUNE UPDATE

==================

• Click here to view the NAR data.

==================

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Leading Economic Index for June 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for June 2024: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.2%

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.71% (-5.0 points)

==============

• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JUNE 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment.

However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.'

NOTE: Starting with the September 2023 release, Leading Credit Index™ calculations (from 2020 to current) use the SOFR Overnight Financing Rate in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year instead of LIBOR rate. LIBOR remains in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year from 1990 to 2020..."

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