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Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Second Estimate for Q1, 2020

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020:

Predicted: -5.0%
Actual: -5.0%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


"...Corporate Profits

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $295.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $53.0 billion in the fourth quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $67.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $0.7 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $169.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $53.7 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $58.6 billion, compared with a decrease of $1.4 billion. In the first quarter, receipts decreased $72.7 billion,
and payments decreased $14.2 billion.


"...Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on the First-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate

The decline in first quarter GDP reflected the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued “stay-at-home” orders in March. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending.  The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified..."


GDP, First Quarter 2020, Second Estimate
GDP, First Quarter 2020, Second Estimate


  • On June 25, 2020, a third and "final" GDP estimate will be released by the BEA, which will contain the most accurate and authoritative data for the first quarter of 2020.

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."



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