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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Leading Economic Index for April 2017

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2017 this morning:

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Index for April: 126.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2010 data.)

Predicted: +0.3
Actual: +0.3%

  • Previous Month: +0.3% (revised.)

  • Two Months Previous: +0.5%

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The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April 2017
Leading Economic Index (LEI) for April 2017

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From Today's Report:

"...'The recent trend in the U.S. LEI, led by the positive outlook of consumers and financial markets, continues to point to a growing economy, perhaps even a cyclical pickup,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. 'First quarter’s weak GDP growth is likely a temporary hiccup as the economy returns to its long-term trend of about 2 percent. While the majority of leading indicators have been contributing positively in recent months, housing permits followed by average workweek in manufacturing have been the sources of weakness among the U.S. LEI components.'..."


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