Leading Economic Index for February 2025
Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for February 2025:
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Index for February 2025: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)
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Predicted: -0.1%
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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE
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Index for February 2025: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)
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Predicted: -0.1%
- Actual: -0.3% (-0.3 point Month-on-Month)
- Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.46% (-1.5 points)
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- LEI for January 2025: 101.4
- LEI for December 2024: 101.6
- LEI for November 2024: 101.7
- LEI for October 2024: 101.4
- LEI for September 2024: 101.7
- LEI for August 2024: 102.1
- LEI for July 2024: 102.4
- LEI for June 2024: 102.9
- LEI for May 2024: 101.3
- LEI for April 2024: 101.7
- LEI for March 2024: 102.4
- LEI for February 2024: 102.6
The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.
The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:
- The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
- Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
- Building permits for new private housing
- The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
- Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Average weekly manufacturing hours
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
- Leading Credit Index™
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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
FEBRUARY 2025 UPDATE
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From Today's Report:
"...'The US LEI fell again in February and continues to point to headwinds ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic. That was the component that weighed down most heavily on the Index in February.
Manufacturing new orders, which improved in January, retreated and were the second largest negative contributor to the Index’s monthly decline.
On a positive note, the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates, while still negative, have remained on an upward trend since the end of 2023, suggesting that headwinds in the economy as of February may have moderated compared to last year.
However, given substantial policy uncertainty and the notable pullback in consumer sentiment and spending since the beginning of the year, we currently forecast that real GDP growth in the US will slow to around 2.0% in 2025.'..."
Labels: consumer, consumers, disinflation, Economy, FedPrimeRate, FedPrimeRate.com, inflation, Leading_Economic_Index, leading_economic_indicators, Recession_Risk, Recession_Signals, Recession_Warning
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posted by Steve Brown | 3/21/2025 09:50:00 AM
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