Economy: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September 2018

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index (SBOI) for September 2018:

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Predicted: 108.0
Actual: 107.9

Change from Previous Month: -0.827% (-0.9 point)

Change from 12 Months Previous: +4.757% (+4.9 points)

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The previous month's SBOI reading was 108.8.

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Chart: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - September 2018 Update

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Chart: NFIB Small Business Outlook - September 2018 Update

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From Today's Report (note text in bold):

"...The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index continued its historic 23-month positive trend, with a reading of 107.9 in September, the third highest reading in the survey’s 45-year history. In the small business half of the economy, 2018 has produced 45-year record high measures of job openings, hiring plans, actual job creation, compensation increases (actual and planned), profit growth, and inventory investment.

The September 2018 Survey Showed:

-- Actual capital spending in the past few months rose significantly.

-- Average employment change per firm was solid.

-- Owners bulked up inventories.

-- Compensation increases set a new record.

'This is the longest streak of small business optimism in history, evidence that tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks are paying off for the economy as a whole,' said NFIB President and CEO Juanita D. Duggan. 'Our members say that business is booming and prospects continue to look bright.'

Actual investment spending improved as prospects for the economy remain strong. Sixty percent of owners reported capital outlays, up four points from August. Of those making expenditures, 41 percent reported spending on new equipment (up two points), 26 percent acquired vehicles (up four points), and 16 percent improved or expanded facilities (down two points).

Consumer spending temporarily slowed in August, likely producing excess inventories but has picked up again which will reverse the build-up. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose three points to a net 29 percent of owners. Owners reporting inventory increases rose one point to a net five percent (seasonally adjusted). Strong expectations for higher real sales translate into higher expected returns on capital investments as well as a need for more employees.

'The economy continues to deliver a spectacular performance for one so near its record length. Small business owners continue to face labor force challenges but are increasing compensation to keep up,' said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'With profits and investment remaining strong, our hope is that policymakers will stay the course and not screw around with success.'

A record net 37 percent of owners reported raising overall compensation, as reported in last week’s NFIB monthly jobs report. This surpasses the previous record of a net 35 percent in May 2018. Twenty-four percent plan to increase total compensation at their firm and six percent plan reductions. Sixty-one percent of owners reported hiring or trying to hire, with 87 percent of those reporting few or no qualified workers. Thirty-eight percent of owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, unchanged from last month..."