Economy: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for January 2019

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (January 2019) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

Actual: 120.2

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Previous Month (revised): 126.6

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The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer Confidence declined in January, following a decrease in December,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index was virtually unchanged, suggesting economic conditions remain favorable. Expectations, however, declined sharply as financial market volatility and the government shutdown appear to have impacted consumers. Shock events such as government shutdowns (i.e. 2013) tend to have sharp, but temporary, impacts on consumer confidence. Thus, it appears that this month’s decline is more the result of a temporary shock than a precursor to a significant slowdown in the coming months.'

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was little changed in January. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are 'good' was virtually unchanged at 37.4 percent, while those saying business conditions are 'bad' decreased from 11.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was mixed. Those stating jobs are 'plentiful' increased from 45.5 percent to 46.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are 'hard to get' also increased, from 12.2 percent to 12.9 percent.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term future was more pessimistic in January. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 18.1 percent to 16.0 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 10.6 percent to 14.8 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 16.6 percent to 14.7 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased, from 14.6 percent to 16.5 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 22.4 percent to 18.2 percent, but the proportion expecting a decrease also declined, from 7.6 percent to 7.1 percent..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

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