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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Leading Economic Index for December 2018

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for December 2018 this morning:

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Index for December: 111.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

Predicted: -0.1%
Actual: -0.0894% (-0.1 point)

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  • Index for November 2018: 111.8 

  • Index for October 2018: 111.6

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - December 2018 Update
Chart: Leading Economic Index - December 2018 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the US economic growth rate may slow down this year,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests that the economy could decelerate towards 2 percent growth by the end of 2019.'..."

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