Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for March 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March 2023) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 102.0

• Actual: 104.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.4

• Change from Previous Month: +0.774% (+0.8 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.

'While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. The share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ fell, while the share of those saying jobs are ‘not so plentiful’ rose. The latest results also reveal that their expectations of inflation over the next 12 months remains elevated -- at 6.3%. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
March 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 108.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 101.4

• Change from Previous Month: +6.8% (+6.9 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence bounced back in December, reversing consecutive declines in October and November to reach its highest level since April 2022,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes improved due to consumers’ more favorable view regarding the economy and jobs.

Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a major impetus. Vacation intentions improved but plans to purchase homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further. This shift in consumers’ preference from big-ticket items to services will continue in 2023, as will headwinds from inflation and interest rate hikes.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
December 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (November 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 100.0

• Actual: 100.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 102.2

• Change from Previous Month: -1.96% (-2.0 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined again in November, most likely prompted by the recent rise in gas prices,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy. Indeed, the Expectations Index is below a reading of 80, which suggests the likelihood of a recession remains elevated.'

'Inflation expectations increased to their highest level since July, with both gas and food prices as the main culprits. Intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all cooled. The combination of inflation and interest rate hikes will continue to pose challenges to confidence and economic growth into early 2023.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
November 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for November 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for November 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 57.0

• Actual: 56.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -5.18% (-3.1 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -15.73% (-10.6 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for October 2022: 59.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for November 2021: 67.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell 5% below October, offsetting about one-third of the gains posted since the historic low in June. Along with the ongoing impact of inflation, consumer attitudes have also been weighed down by rising borrowing costs, declining asset values, and weakening labor market expectations. Buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 19% to its September level on the basis of high interest rates and continued high prices.  Long-term business conditions declined a more modest 6%, while short-term business conditions and personal finances were essentially unchanged.

Inflation expectations were also little changed from October. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 4.9%, down slightly from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months. Uncertainty over these expectations remained at an elevated level, indicating that the general stability of these expectations may not necessarily endure..."

=========

• Five Patterns in Consumer
  Responses to Inflation

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for November 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for November 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0

• Actual: 54.7

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -8.68% (-5.2 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -18.84% (-12.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for October 2022: 59.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for November 2021: 67.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell about 9% below October, erasing about half of the gains that had been recorded since the historic low in June. All components of the index declined from last month, but buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 21% on the basis of high interest rates as well as continued high prices. Overall, declines in sentiment were observed across the distribution of age, education, income, geography, and political affiliation, showing that the recent improvements in sentiment were tentative. Instability in sentiment is likely to continue, a reflection of uncertainty over both global factors and the eventual outcomes of the election.

Inflation expectations are little changed. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.1%, up from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months..."

=========

CHART: High Interest Rate Reasons for
Poor Buying Conditions and Interest Rates

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 102.5

================

Previous Month (revised): 107.8

• Change from Previous Month: -4.92% (-5.3 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence retreated in October, after advancing in August and September,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index fell sharply, suggesting economic growth slowed to start Q4. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained dismal. The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80 -- a level associated with recession -- suggesting recession risks appear to be rising.'

'Notably, concerns about inflation -- which had been receding since July -- picked up again, with both gas and food prices serving as main drivers. Vacation intentions cooled; however, intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all rose. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures will continue to pose strong headwinds to consumer confidence and spending, which could result in a challenging holiday season for retailers. And, given inventories are already in place, if demand falls short, it may result in steep discounting which would reduce retailers’ profit margins.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
October 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for September 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for September 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 59.0

• Actual: 58.6

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +0.687% (+ 0.4 point)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -19.505% (-14.2 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for August 2022: 58.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for September 2021: 72.8

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumer sentiment confirmed the preliminary reading earlier this month and was essentially unchanged from the month prior, at less than one index point above August. Buying conditions for durables and the one-year economic outlook continued lifting from the extremely low readings earlier in the summer, but these gains were largely offset by modest declines in the long run outlook for business conditions. As seen in the chart, sentiment for consumers across the income distribution has declined in a remarkably close fashion for the last 6 months, reflecting shared concerns over the impact of inflation, even among higher-income consumers who have historically generated the lion's share of spending.

The median expected year-ahead inflation rate declined to 4.7%, the lowest reading since last September. At 2.7%, median long run inflation expectations fell below the 2.9-3.1% range for the first time since July 2021. Inflation expectations are likely to remain relatively unstable in the months ahead, as consumer uncertainty over these expectations remained high and is unlikely to wane in the face of continued global pressures on inflation..."

 =====================

CHART: Index of Consumer Sentiment History
3 Month Moving Average
September 2022 UPDATE

 =====================

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (September 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 108.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.6

• Change from Previous Month: +4.28% (+4.4 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September for the second consecutive month. The Index now stands at 108.0 (1985=100), up from 103.6 in August. The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- rose to 149.6 from 145.3 last month. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- increased to 80.3 from 75.8.

'Consumer confidence improved in September for the second consecutive month supported in particular by jobs, wages, and declining gas prices,'said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index rose again, after declining from April through July. The Expectations Index also improved from summer lows, but recession risks nonetheless persist. Concerns about inflation dissipated further in September -- prompted largely by declining prices at the gas pump -- and are now at their lowest level since the start of the year.'

'Meanwhile, purchasing intentions were mixed, with intentions to buy automobiles and big-ticket appliances up, while home purchasing intentions fell. The latter no doubt reflects rising mortgage rates and a cooling housing market. Looking ahead, the improvement in confidence may bode well for consumer spending in the final months of 2022, but inflation and interest-rate hikes remain strong headwinds to growth in the short term.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
September 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for July 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) -  Preliminary Results for July 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 50.0

• Actual: 51.1

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +2.2% (+1.1 points)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -37.07% (-30.1 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for June 2022: 50.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for July 2021: 81.2

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumer sentiment was relatively unchanged, remaining near all-time lows. Current assessments of personal finances continued to deteriorate, reaching its lowest point since 2011. Buying conditions for durables adjusted upwards, owing both to consumers who cited easing supply constraints and those who believed that one should buy now to avoid future price increases, which would exacerbate inflation going forward. Even with the adjustment, buying conditions remained 26% lower than a year ago.

Consumers remained in agreement over the deleterious effect of prices on their personal finances. The share of consumers blaming inflation for eroding their living standards continued its rise to 49%, matching the all-time high reached during the Great Recession. These negative views endured in the face of the recent moderation in gas prices at the pump.

Inflation expectations have held steady or improved somewhat. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.2%, little changed from the past five months. Median long run expectations fell to 2.8%, just below the 2.9-3.1% range seen in the preceding 11 months. Inflation uncertainty continued to grow, with 26% of consumers expecting prices to stay the same or fall over the next 5 to 10 years, up from 11% a year ago..."

=========

CHART: Current Financial Situation Compared to A Year Ago
(Monthly and Three Month Moving Average)
July 2022 PRELIMINARY UPDATE

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2022

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 98.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.2

• Change from Previous Month: -4.36% (-4.5 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...Index Drops to Lowest Level Since February 2021 as Expectations Continue to Decline

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in June, following a decline in May. The Index fell to 98.7 (1985=100)—down 4.5 points from 103.2 in May -- and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021 (Index, 95.2). The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- declined marginally to 147.1 from 147.4 last month. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- decreased sharply to 66.4 from 73.7 and is at its lowest level since March 2013 (Index, 63.7).

'Consumer confidence fell for a second consecutive month in June,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'While the Present Situation Index was relatively unchanged, the Expectations Index continued its recent downward trajectory -- falling to its lowest point in nearly a decade. Consumers’ grimmer outlook was driven by increasing concerns about inflation, in particular rising gas and food prices. Expectations have now fallen well below a reading of 80, suggesting weaker growth in the second half of 2022 as well as growing risk of recession by year-end.'

'Purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances held relatively steady -- but intentions have cooled since the start of the year and this trend is likely to continue as the Fed aggressively raises interest rates to tame inflation. Meanwhile, vacation plans softened further as rising prices took their toll. Looking ahead over the next six months, consumer spending and economic growth are likely to continue facing strong headwinds from further inflation and rate hikes.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
June 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for June 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for June 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 51.0

• Actual: 50.0

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -14.38% (-8.4 points)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -41.52% (-35.5 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for May 2022: 58.4
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for June 2021: 85.5

=========

From today's report:

"...The final June reading confirmed the early-June decline in consumer sentiment, settling 0.2 Index points below the preliminary reading and 14.4% below May for the lowest reading on record. Consumers across income, age, education, geographic region, political affiliation, stockholding and homeownership status all posted large declines. About 79% of consumers expected bad times in the year ahead for business conditions, the highest since 2009. Inflation continued to be of paramount concern to consumers; 47% of consumers blamed inflation for eroding their living standards, just one point shy of the all-time high last reached during the Great Recession.

Since the preliminary reading, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, exceeding the 50 basis point hike that had been previously telegraphed. The final June reading of the median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.3%, little changed from mid-month or the preceding four months. In contrast, long run expectations receded from its mid-month reading of 3.3% and settled at 3.1%, back within the 2.9-3.1% range seen in the past 10 months. Consumers also expressed the highest level of uncertainty over long-run inflation since 1991, continuing a sharp increase that began in 2021..."

 =====================

CHART: Inflation Uncertainty As Estimated
by the Range of the Middle 50%
in Inflation Expectations

 =====================

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

--> www.FedPrimeRate.com Privacy Policy <-- >  SITEMAP  <

Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for June 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) -  Preliminary Results for June 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 55.0

• Actual: 50.2

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -14.041% (-8.2 points)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -41.29% (-35.3 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for May 2022: 58.4
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for June 2021: 85.5

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumer sentiment declined by 14% from May, continuing a downward trend over the last year and reaching its lowest recorded value [50.2], comparable to the trough reached in the middle of the 1980 recession. All components of the sentiment index fell this month, with the steepest decline in the year-ahead outlook in business conditions, down 24% from May. Consumers' assessments of their personal financial situation worsened about 20%. Forty-six percent of consumers attributed their negative views to inflation, up from 38% in May; this share has only been exceeded once since 1981, during the Great Recession.

Overall, gas prices weighed heavily on consumers, which was no surprise given the 65 cent increase in national gas prices from last month (AAA). Half of all consumers spontaneously mentioned gas during their interviews, compared with 30% in May and only 13% a year ago. Consumers expect gas prices to continue to rise a median of 25 cents over the next year, more than double the May reading and the second highest since 2015.

In addition, a majority of consumers spontaneously mentioned supply shortages for the ninth consecutive month..."

=========

CHART: Consumer Sentiment
Expected Change in Real Income
During the Next Year
June 2022 PRELIMINARY UPDATE

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2022

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 106.0

• Actual: 106.4

================

Previous Month (revised): 108.6

• Change from Previous Month: -2.026% (-2.2 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence dipped slightly in May, after rising modestly in April,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline in the Present Situation Index was driven solely by a perceived softening in labor market conditions. By contrast, views of current business conditions -- which tend to move ahead of trends in jobs -- improved. Overall, the Present Situation Index remains at strong levels, suggesting growth did not contract further in Q2. That said, with the Expectations Index weakening further, consumers also do not foresee the economy picking up steam in the months ahead. They do expect labor market conditions to remain relatively strong, which should continue to support confidence in the short run.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
May 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for May 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for May 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 59.0

• Actual: 58.4

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -10.43% (-6.8 points)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -29.55% (-24.5 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2022: 65.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2021: 82.9

=========

From today's report:

"...The final May reading confirmed the early month decline in consumer sentiment, which fell 10.4% below April and reverted to virtually the same level of sentiment seen in March. This recent drop was largely driven by continued negative views on current buying conditions for houses and durables, as well as consumers’ future outlook for the economy, primarily due to concerns over inflation. At the same time, consumers expressed less pessimism over future prospects for their personal finances than over future business conditions.

Less than one quarter of consumers expected to be worse off financially a year from now.

Looking into the long term, a majority of consumers expected their financial situation to improve over the next five years; this share is essentially unchanged during 2022. A stable outlook for personal finances may currently support consumer spending. Still, persistently negative views of the economy may come to dominate personal factors in influencing consumer behavior in the future..."

=========

CHART: Consumer Sentiment
Monthly + 3-Month Moving Average
 May 2022 FINAL Reading

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for May 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) -  Preliminary Results for May 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 61.0

• Actual: 59.1

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -9.36% (-6.1 points)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -28.71% (-23.8 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2022: 65.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2021: 82.9

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumer sentiment declined by 9.4% from April, reversing gains realized that month. These declines were broad based -- for current economic conditions as well as consumer expectations, and visible across income, age, education, geography, and political affiliation -- continuing the general downward trend in sentiment over the past year. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation relative to a year ago is at its lowest reading since 2013, with 36% of consumers attributing their negative assessment to inflation. Buying conditions for durables reached its lowest reading since the question began appearing on the monthly surveys in 1978, again primarily due to high prices.

The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.4%, little changed over the last three months, and up from 4.6% in May 2021. The mean was considerably higher at 7.4%, reflecting substantial variation in price changes across types of goods and services, and in household spending patterns. At the same time, long term inflation expectations remain well-anchored with a median of 3.0%, settling within the 2.9 to 3.1% range seen over the last 10 months..."

=========

CHART: Consumer Sentiment
Monthly and 3-Month Moving Average
May 2022 PRELIMINARY

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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