Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (August) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 116.0

• Actual: 106.1

================

Previous Month (revised): 114.0

• Change from Previous Month: -6.93% (-7.9 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August to 106.1 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July. The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- fell to 144.8 (1985=100) from 153.0. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- declined to 80.2 (1985=100) in August, reversing July’s sharp uptick to 88.0. Expectations were a hair above 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession, within the next year. Although consumer fears of an impending recession continued to recede, we still anticipate one is likely before year-end.

'Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups -- and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000. Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 August 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (July) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 112.0

• Actual: 117.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 110.1

• Change from Previous Month: +6.27% (+6.9 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- improved to 88.3 (1985=100) from 80.0 in June. Importantly, Expectations climbed well above 80 -- the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before year-end.

'Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 July 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June 2023

The National Federation of Independent Business® (NFIB®) released its Small Business Optimism Index for June 2023:

=========

Predicted: 90.0
Actual: 91.0

• Change from Previous Month: +1.79% (+1.6 points.)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: +1.68% (+1.5 points.)

=========

CHART: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
June 2023 Update 

=========

 

From Today's Report:

"...'Halfway through the year, small business owners remain very pessimistic about future business conditions and their sales prospects, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. 'Inflation and labor shortages continue to be great challenges for small businesses. Owners are still raising selling prices at an inflationary level to try to pass on higher inventory, labor, and energy costs.'...'

Key Findings Include:

    -- Forty-two percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, down two points from May but remaining historically very high.

    -- Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months improved 10 points from May to a net negative 40%, 21 percentage points better than last June’s reading of a net negative 61%.

    -- The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher improved seven points from May to a net negative 14%..."

=========

• The baseline "100" score is associated with 1986 survey data.
  

=========

The previous month's Small Business Optimism Index was 89.4.

=========

• Click here to view the full NFIB report

 
=========

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 109.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 102.5

• Change from Previous Month: +7.02% (+7.2 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence improved in June to its highest level since January 2022, reflecting improved current conditions and a pop in expectations,' said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 'Greater confidence was most evident among consumers under age 35, and consumers earning incomes over $35,000. Nonetheless, the expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next 6 to 12 months.'

'Assessments of the present situation rose in June on sunnier views of both business and employment conditions. Indeed, the spread between consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ versus ‘not so plentiful’ widened, indicating upbeat feelings about a labor market that continues to outperform. Likewise, expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability.'

'While income expectations ticked down slightly in June, new questions included in this month’s release found a notably brighter outlook for consumers’ family finances: Around 30 percent expect their family’s financial situation to be ‘better’ in the next six months, compared to less than 14 percent expecting it to be ‘worse.’ This might reflect consumers’ belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable and that there will be further declines in inflation ahead. Indeed, the 12-month forward inflation expectations gauge fell to 6 percent in June, the lowest reading since December 2020.'

 'Although the Expectations Index remained a hair below the threshold signaling recession ahead, a new measure found considerably fewer consumers now expect a recession in the next 12 months compared to May. Meanwhile, on a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and homes have slowed, after picking up earlier in 2023. This may reflect rising costs to finance big-ticket items as the Fed continues to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, vacation plans within the next six months continued to flag, led largely by declines in plans to travel domestically. This is an important indicator of desires to spend on services ahead, which may be a signal that post-pandemic ‘revenge spending’ on travel may have peaked and is likely to slow over the rest of this year.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 June 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (May) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.9

• Actual: 102.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.7

• Change from Previous Month: -1.35% (-1.4 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined in May as consumers’ view of current conditions became somewhat less upbeat while their expectations remained gloomy,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.' Their assessment of current employment conditions saw the most significant deterioration, with the proportion of consumers reporting jobs are ‘plentiful’ falling 4 percentage points from 47.5% in April to 43.5% in May. Consumers also became more downbeat about future business conditions, weighing on the expectations index. However, expectations for jobs and incomes over the next six months held relatively steady. While consumer confidence has fallen across all age and income categories over the past three months, May’s decline reflects a particularly notable worsening in the outlook among consumers over 55 years of age.' 

'Consumers’ inflation expectations remain elevated, but stable. Consumers in May expected inflation to average 6.1% over the next 12 months, essentially unchanged from 6.2% in April, though down substantially from the peak of 7.9% reached last year. Nonetheless, consumers continued to view inflation as a major influence on their view of the US economy. Plans to purchase homes in the next six months held steady in May at around 5.6 percent, but was still notably down from 6 to 7 percent in Q4 2022. Meanwhile, plans to purchase autos and big-ticket appliances ticked up somewhat compared to April.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 May 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for April 2023

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for April 2023 was released today:

Predicted: 64.0

• Actual: 63.5

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +2.42% (+1.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -2.61% (-1.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for March 2023: 62.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for April 2022: 65.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, inching up less than two index points from March. Buying conditions for durables improved 11% primarily on the basis of easing perceptions of unaffordability. Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly from last month. These improvements were balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices..."

=========

CHART: Percent Mentioning High Interest Rates
or Tight Credit as Reasons
for Poor Buying Conditions

 

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (April 2023) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 104.0

• Actual: 101.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 104.0

• Change from Previous Month: -2.6% (-2.7 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions fell to 68.1 (1985=100) from 74.0. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80 -- the level associated with a recession within the next year -- every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. The survey was fielded from April 3, about three weeks after the bank failures in the United States, to April 19.

'While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board. 'Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term. April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects particular deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.'

'Meanwhile, April’s results show consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months remain essentially unchanged from March at 6.2 percent, although that level is down substantially from the peak of 7.9% reached last year, it is still elevated. Overall purchasing plans for homes, autos, appliances, and vacations all pulled back in April, a signal that consumers may be economizing amid growing pessimism.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

 

 CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 April 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for March 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March 2023) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 102.0

• Actual: 104.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.4

• Change from Previous Month: +0.774% (+0.8 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.

'While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. The share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ fell, while the share of those saying jobs are ‘not so plentiful’ rose. The latest results also reveal that their expectations of inflation over the next 12 months remains elevated -- at 6.3%. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
March 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 108.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 101.4

• Change from Previous Month: +6.8% (+6.9 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence bounced back in December, reversing consecutive declines in October and November to reach its highest level since April 2022,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes improved due to consumers’ more favorable view regarding the economy and jobs.

Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a major impetus. Vacation intentions improved but plans to purchase homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further. This shift in consumers’ preference from big-ticket items to services will continue in 2023, as will headwinds from inflation and interest rate hikes.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
December 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (November 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 100.0

• Actual: 100.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 102.2

• Change from Previous Month: -1.96% (-2.0 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined again in November, most likely prompted by the recent rise in gas prices,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy. Indeed, the Expectations Index is below a reading of 80, which suggests the likelihood of a recession remains elevated.'

'Inflation expectations increased to their highest level since July, with both gas and food prices as the main culprits. Intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all cooled. The combination of inflation and interest rate hikes will continue to pose challenges to confidence and economic growth into early 2023.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
November 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for November 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for November 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 57.0

• Actual: 56.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -5.18% (-3.1 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -15.73% (-10.6 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for October 2022: 59.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for November 2021: 67.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell 5% below October, offsetting about one-third of the gains posted since the historic low in June. Along with the ongoing impact of inflation, consumer attitudes have also been weighed down by rising borrowing costs, declining asset values, and weakening labor market expectations. Buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 19% to its September level on the basis of high interest rates and continued high prices.  Long-term business conditions declined a more modest 6%, while short-term business conditions and personal finances were essentially unchanged.

Inflation expectations were also little changed from October. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 4.9%, down slightly from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months. Uncertainty over these expectations remained at an elevated level, indicating that the general stability of these expectations may not necessarily endure..."

=========

• Five Patterns in Consumer
  Responses to Inflation

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for November 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for November 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0

• Actual: 54.7

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -8.68% (-5.2 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -18.84% (-12.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for October 2022: 59.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for November 2021: 67.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell about 9% below October, erasing about half of the gains that had been recorded since the historic low in June. All components of the index declined from last month, but buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 21% on the basis of high interest rates as well as continued high prices. Overall, declines in sentiment were observed across the distribution of age, education, income, geography, and political affiliation, showing that the recent improvements in sentiment were tentative. Instability in sentiment is likely to continue, a reflection of uncertainty over both global factors and the eventual outcomes of the election.

Inflation expectations are little changed. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.1%, up from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months..."

=========

CHART: High Interest Rate Reasons for
Poor Buying Conditions and Interest Rates

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (October 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 102.5

================

Previous Month (revised): 107.8

• Change from Previous Month: -4.92% (-5.3 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence retreated in October, after advancing in August and September,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index fell sharply, suggesting economic growth slowed to start Q4. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained dismal. The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80 -- a level associated with recession -- suggesting recession risks appear to be rising.'

'Notably, concerns about inflation -- which had been receding since July -- picked up again, with both gas and food prices serving as main drivers. Vacation intentions cooled; however, intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all rose. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures will continue to pose strong headwinds to consumer confidence and spending, which could result in a challenging holiday season for retailers. And, given inventories are already in place, if demand falls short, it may result in steep discounting which would reduce retailers’ profit margins.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
October 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for September 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for September 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 59.0

• Actual: 58.6

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +0.687% (+ 0.4 point)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -19.505% (-14.2 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for August 2022: 58.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for September 2021: 72.8

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumer sentiment confirmed the preliminary reading earlier this month and was essentially unchanged from the month prior, at less than one index point above August. Buying conditions for durables and the one-year economic outlook continued lifting from the extremely low readings earlier in the summer, but these gains were largely offset by modest declines in the long run outlook for business conditions. As seen in the chart, sentiment for consumers across the income distribution has declined in a remarkably close fashion for the last 6 months, reflecting shared concerns over the impact of inflation, even among higher-income consumers who have historically generated the lion's share of spending.

The median expected year-ahead inflation rate declined to 4.7%, the lowest reading since last September. At 2.7%, median long run inflation expectations fell below the 2.9-3.1% range for the first time since July 2021. Inflation expectations are likely to remain relatively unstable in the months ahead, as consumer uncertainty over these expectations remained high and is unlikely to wane in the face of continued global pressures on inflation..."

 =====================

CHART: Index of Consumer Sentiment History
3 Month Moving Average
September 2022 UPDATE

 =====================

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for September 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (September 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 108.0

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.6

• Change from Previous Month: +4.28% (+4.4 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September for the second consecutive month. The Index now stands at 108.0 (1985=100), up from 103.6 in August. The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- rose to 149.6 from 145.3 last month. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- increased to 80.3 from 75.8.

'Consumer confidence improved in September for the second consecutive month supported in particular by jobs, wages, and declining gas prices,'said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index rose again, after declining from April through July. The Expectations Index also improved from summer lows, but recession risks nonetheless persist. Concerns about inflation dissipated further in September -- prompted largely by declining prices at the gas pump -- and are now at their lowest level since the start of the year.'

'Meanwhile, purchasing intentions were mixed, with intentions to buy automobiles and big-ticket appliances up, while home purchasing intentions fell. The latter no doubt reflects rising mortgage rates and a cooling housing market. Looking ahead, the improvement in confidence may bode well for consumer spending in the final months of 2022, but inflation and interest-rate hikes remain strong headwinds to growth in the short term.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
September 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for July 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) -  Preliminary Results for July 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 50.0

• Actual: 51.1

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +2.2% (+1.1 points)

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -37.07% (-30.1 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for June 2022: 50.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for July 2021: 81.2

=========

From today's report:

"...Consumer sentiment was relatively unchanged, remaining near all-time lows. Current assessments of personal finances continued to deteriorate, reaching its lowest point since 2011. Buying conditions for durables adjusted upwards, owing both to consumers who cited easing supply constraints and those who believed that one should buy now to avoid future price increases, which would exacerbate inflation going forward. Even with the adjustment, buying conditions remained 26% lower than a year ago.

Consumers remained in agreement over the deleterious effect of prices on their personal finances. The share of consumers blaming inflation for eroding their living standards continued its rise to 49%, matching the all-time high reached during the Great Recession. These negative views endured in the face of the recent moderation in gas prices at the pump.

Inflation expectations have held steady or improved somewhat. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.2%, little changed from the past five months. Median long run expectations fell to 2.8%, just below the 2.9-3.1% range seen in the preceding 11 months. Inflation uncertainty continued to grow, with 26% of consumers expecting prices to stay the same or fall over the next 5 to 10 years, up from 11% a year ago..."

=========

CHART: Current Financial Situation Compared to A Year Ago
(Monthly and Three Month Moving Average)
July 2022 PRELIMINARY UPDATE

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June 2022

The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (June 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 99.0

• Actual: 98.7

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.2

• Change from Previous Month: -4.36% (-4.5 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...Index Drops to Lowest Level Since February 2021 as Expectations Continue to Decline

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in June, following a decline in May. The Index fell to 98.7 (1985=100)—down 4.5 points from 103.2 in May -- and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021 (Index, 95.2). The Present Situation Index -- based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions -- declined marginally to 147.1 from 147.4 last month. The Expectations Index -- based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- decreased sharply to 66.4 from 73.7 and is at its lowest level since March 2013 (Index, 63.7).

'Consumer confidence fell for a second consecutive month in June,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'While the Present Situation Index was relatively unchanged, the Expectations Index continued its recent downward trajectory -- falling to its lowest point in nearly a decade. Consumers’ grimmer outlook was driven by increasing concerns about inflation, in particular rising gas and food prices. Expectations have now fallen well below a reading of 80, suggesting weaker growth in the second half of 2022 as well as growing risk of recession by year-end.'

'Purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances held relatively steady -- but intentions have cooled since the start of the year and this trend is likely to continue as the Fed aggressively raises interest rates to tame inflation. Meanwhile, vacation plans softened further as rising prices took their toll. Looking ahead over the next six months, consumer spending and economic growth are likely to continue facing strong headwinds from further inflation and rate hikes.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
June 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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