U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for April 2023

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for April 2023:

Predicted: +0.5%

• Actual:  +0.421%(+$2,873,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Estimated Retail Sales During April 2023: $686,052,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +1.57% (+$10,775,000,000)

=================

 

CHART: Retail Sales During April 2023

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2023:

=========================================

CPI During April 2023: 303.363

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.506% (+1.527 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.93% (+14.254 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.5%
Actual: +0.466% (+1.423 points)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +5.52% (+16.053 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During  April 2022: 289.109

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
 April 2023 Update

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for April 2023

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for April 2023 was released today:

Predicted: 64.0

• Actual: 63.5

=========

• Change from Previous Month: +2.42% (+1.5 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -2.61% (-1.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for March 2023: 62.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for April 2022: 65.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was little changed this month, inching up less than two index points from March. Buying conditions for durables improved 11% primarily on the basis of easing perceptions of unaffordability. Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly from last month. These improvements were balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices..."

=========

CHART: Percent Mentioning High Interest Rates
or Tight Credit as Reasons
for Poor Buying Conditions

 

=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: FLAT
  

• Actual: (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.2%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (April 2023) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 104.0

• Actual: 101.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 104.0

• Change from Previous Month: -2.6% (-2.7 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions fell to 68.1 (1985=100) from 74.0. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80 -- the level associated with a recession within the next year -- every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. The survey was fielded from April 3, about three weeks after the bank failures in the United States, to April 19.

'While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board. 'Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term. April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects particular deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.'

'Meanwhile, April’s results show consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months remain essentially unchanged from March at 6.2 percent, although that level is down substantially from the peak of 7.9% reached last year, it is still elevated. Overall purchasing plans for homes, autos, appliances, and vacations all pulled back in April, a signal that consumers may be economizing amid growing pessimism.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================   

 

 CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
 April 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023:

=========================================

CPI During March 2023: 301.836

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.331% (+0.996 points)

• Change From 12 Months Ago: +4.98% (+14.332 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.482% (+1.465 points)

Change From 12 Months Ago: +5.59% (+16.171 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During  March 2022: 287.504

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
March 2023 Update

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for February 2023

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for February 2023:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.2%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.1%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.3

• Actual: +0.3%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.5%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.6%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for March 2023

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (March 2023) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 102.0

• Actual: 104.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 103.4

• Change from Previous Month: +0.774% (+0.8 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.

'While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. The share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ fell, while the share of those saying jobs are ‘not so plentiful’ rose. The latest results also reveal that their expectations of inflation over the next 12 months remains elevated -- at 6.3%. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
March 2023 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for December 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for December 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.2%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): -0.3%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.2

• Actual: +0.2%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.3%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.2%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.3%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.4%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for  December 2022:

=========================================

CPI During December 2022: 296.797

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Headline

Predicted: FLAT
Actual: -0.307% (-0.914 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +6.454% (+17.995 points)
  

=========================================

Consumer Price Index, Minus Food and Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.1%
Actual: +0.171% (+0.513 points)

Change From 12 Months Previous: +5.708% (+16.205 points)

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During December 2021: 278.802

=========================================

 

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
December 2022 Update 

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for November 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for November 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.2

• Actual: +0.1%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): FLAT

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.4

• Actual: +0.4%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.4%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.3%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.5%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.3%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +4.7%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (December 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 105.0

• Actual: 108.3

================

Previous Month (revised): 101.4

• Change from Previous Month: +6.8% (+6.9 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence bounced back in December, reversing consecutive declines in October and November to reach its highest level since April 2022,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes improved due to consumers’ more favorable view regarding the economy and jobs.

Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a major impetus. Vacation intentions improved but plans to purchase homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further. This shift in consumers’ preference from big-ticket items to services will continue in 2023, as will headwinds from inflation and interest rate hikes.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================  

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
December 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2022

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for  November 2022:

=========================================

CPI During November 2022: 297.711

=========================================

Predicted: FLAT
Actual: -0.1% (-0.301 points)

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +7.11% (+19.763 points)
  

=========================================

The above, yellow-highlighted figures represent month-to-month change (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

=========================================

CPI During November 2021: 277.948

=========================================

 

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

=========================================

 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for October 2022

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for October 2022:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Predicted: +0.8

• Actual: +0.8%
  

• Actual (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.5%

=============

Personal Income

Predicted: +0.5

• Actual: +0.7%

=============

• Disposable Personal Income, Current Dollars: +0.7%

• Disposable Personal Income (2012 Chained* Dollars): +0.4%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.3% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +6.0%

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Predicted: 0.5%
Actual: +0.2%

• Change from 12 months previous: +5.0%

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report (PDF).
   

 =====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

 

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Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November 2022

Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for this month (November 2022) was released by The Conference Board® this morning:

================

Predicted: 100.0

• Actual: 100.2

================

Previous Month (revised): 102.2

• Change from Previous Month: -1.96% (-2.0 points)
  

================

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From Today's Report:

"...'Consumer confidence declined again in November, most likely prompted by the recent rise in gas prices,' said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy. Indeed, the Expectations Index is below a reading of 80, which suggests the likelihood of a recession remains elevated.'

'Inflation expectations increased to their highest level since July, with both gas and food prices as the main culprits. Intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all cooled. The combination of inflation and interest rate hikes will continue to pose challenges to confidence and economic growth into early 2023.'..."

Every month, The Conference Board sends a questionnaire to 5,000 U.S. households. Survey participants are polled about their feelings regarding the U.S. economy, current and future, and about their own fiscal circumstances. On average, 3,500 participants complete and return the 5-question survey.

• The baseline "100" score for the CCI is associated with 1985 survey data.

When consumers feel good about the economy, they tend to do more spending, and vice versa.

Based in New York City, The Conference Board is a private, not-for-profit organization with a mission to, "create and disseminate knowledge about management and the marketplace to help businesses strengthen their performance and better serve society."

The CCI is usually released on the last Tuesday of the month.

================ 

 

CHART: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
November 2022 Update

================

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.
    

================

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Consumer Sentiment: Final Results for November 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Final Results for November 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 57.0

• Actual: 56.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -5.18% (-3.1 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -15.73% (-10.6 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for October 2022: 59.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for November 2021: 67.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell 5% below October, offsetting about one-third of the gains posted since the historic low in June. Along with the ongoing impact of inflation, consumer attitudes have also been weighed down by rising borrowing costs, declining asset values, and weakening labor market expectations. Buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 19% to its September level on the basis of high interest rates and continued high prices.  Long-term business conditions declined a more modest 6%, while short-term business conditions and personal finances were essentially unchanged.

Inflation expectations were also little changed from October. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 4.9%, down slightly from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months. Uncertainty over these expectations remained at an elevated level, indicating that the general stability of these expectations may not necessarily endure..."

=========

• Five Patterns in Consumer
  Responses to Inflation

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for October 2022

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for October 2022:

Predicted: +1.0%

• Actual:  +1.272%(+$8,724,000)

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Estimated Retail Sales During October 2022: $694,518,000,000

• Change From 12 Months Previous: +8.27% (+$53,059,000,000)

=================

 

Retail Sales for October 2022

=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

=================

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for November 2022

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for November 2022 was released today:

Predicted: 60.0

• Actual: 54.7

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -8.68% (-5.2 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -18.84% (-12.7 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for October 2022: 59.9
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for November 2021: 67.4

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell about 9% below October, erasing about half of the gains that had been recorded since the historic low in June. All components of the index declined from last month, but buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 21% on the basis of high interest rates as well as continued high prices. Overall, declines in sentiment were observed across the distribution of age, education, income, geography, and political affiliation, showing that the recent improvements in sentiment were tentative. Instability in sentiment is likely to continue, a reflection of uncertainty over both global factors and the eventual outcomes of the election.

Inflation expectations are little changed. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.1%, up from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months..."

=========

CHART: High Interest Rate Reasons for
Poor Buying Conditions and Interest Rates

 

 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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