U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for May 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for May 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): -0.1%

• Actual: -0.91% (-$6,566,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During May 2025: $715,417,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +3.29% (+$22,782,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru May 2025
MAY 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025:

=========================================

CPI During May 2025: 321.465

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.21% (+0.67 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.35% (+7.396 points)

[prior = +2.31%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.21% (+0.694 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.79% (+8.88 points)

[prior = +2.78%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During May 2024: 314.069

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
MAY 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for May 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for May 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 52.2

=========

• Change from Previous Month: FLAT (No Change)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -24.46% (-16.9 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2024: 69.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four consecutive months of plunging declines. Sentiment had ebbed at the preliminary reading for May but turned a corner in the latter half of the month following the temporary pause on some tariffs on China goods. Expected business conditions improved after mid-month, likely a consequence of the trade policy announcement. However, these positive changes were offset by declines in current personal finances stemming from stagnating incomes throughout May. Overall, consumers see the outlook for the economy as no worse than last month, but they remained quite worried about the future.

Year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 6.6%, inching up from 6.5% last month. This is the smallest increase since the election and marks the end of a four-month streak of extremely large jumps in short-run expectations. Notably, long-run inflation expectations fell back from 4.4% in April to 4.2% in May.

This is the first decline seen since December 2024 and ends an unprecedented four-month sequence of increases. Given that consumers generally expect tariffs to pass through to consumer prices, it is no surprise that trade policy has influenced consumers’ views of the economy. In contrast, despite the many headlines about the tax and spending bill that is moving through Congress, the bill does not appear to be salient to consumers at this time..."

=========

CHART: Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in May 2025,
Ending Four Straight Months of Steep Declines
MAY 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for April 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for April 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (unrevised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.2%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.8%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.1% 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.1%
  (prior - unrevised = +2.3%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): FLAT

• Actual: +0.1%

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.5%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
APRIL 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Leading Economic Index for April 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2025:

==============

Index for April 2025: 99.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -1.00% (-1.0 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -2.26% (-2.3 points)

==============

• LEI for March 2025: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
APRIL 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers’ expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April.

Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI’s components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

 

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Consumer Sentiment: Preliminary Results for May 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - Preliminary Results for May 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 53.0

• Actual: 50.8

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -2.68% (-1.4 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -26.48% (-18.3 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for April 2025: 52.2
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for May 2024: 69.1

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, inching down a scant 1.4 index points following four consecutive months of steep declines. Sentiment is now down almost 30% since January 2025. Slight increases in sentiment this month for independents were offset by a 7% decline among Republicans. While most index components were little changed, current assessments of personal finances sank nearly 10% on the basis of weakening incomes.

Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April; uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers’ thinking about the economy. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.

Many survey measures showed some signs of improvement following the temporary reduction of China tariffs, but these initial upticks were too small to alter the overall picture -- consumers continue to express somber views about the economy. The initial reaction so far echoes the very minor increase in sentiment seen after the April 9 partial pause on tariffs, despite which sentiment continued its downward trend.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.5% last month to 7.3% this month. This month’s rise was seen among Democrats and Republicans alike. Long-run inflation expectations lifted from 4.4% in April to 4.6% in May, reflecting a particularly large monthly jump among Republicans. The final release for May will reveal the extent to which the May 12 pause on some China tariffs leads consumers to update their expectations..."

=========

CHART: Consumers Anticipate Rising Unemployment
and Elevated Risks of Personal Job Loss
MAY 2025 UPDATE
 =========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

========= 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for April 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for April 2025:

=================

Previous Month (revised): +1.7%

• Actual: +0.06% (+417,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During April 2025: $724,131,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +5.16% (+$35,502,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru April 2025
APRIL 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2025:

=========================================

CPI During April 2025: 320.795

=========================================

Consumer Price Index (CPI); Headline

Predicted: +0.3%

->  Actual: +0.311% (+0.996 point)

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.31% (+7.247 points)

[prior = +2.39%]

=========================================

CPI, Minus Food + Energy (Core CPI)

Predicted: +0.3%

 - > Actual: +0.27% (+0.882 point) M/M

• Year-on-Year Change: +2.78% (+8.837 points)

[prior = +2.79%]

=========================================

The above, yellow- and blue-highlighted figures represent month-to-month and year-on-year changes (not seasonally adjusted) in prices for a specific group of goods and services that consumers buy, and is, therefore, a very important part of the overall inflation picture for the country.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

General categories that constitute the CPI are:

• Healthcare
• Housing
• Clothing
• Communications
• Education
• Transportation
• Food and Beverages
• Recreation
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (grooming expenses, etc.)

========================================

CPI During April 2024: 313.548

=======================================

CHART: Consumer Price Index
12-Month Percentage Change
APRIL 2025 Update

========================================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report.
  

========================================    

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PCE Price Index + Personal Income + Consumer Spending Report for March 2025

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report on The PCE Price Index, Consumer Spending and Personal Income for March 2025:

=============

Consumer Spending (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: +0.7%
  

=============

Personal Income

Previous Reading (revised): +0.7%

• Actual: +0.5%

=============

The above highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in Consumer Spending (aka Personal Consumption Expenditures), Personal Income and Disposable Personal Income for the entire United States.

=============

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
Previous Reading (revised): +0.4%

• Actual: FLAT 

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.3%
  (prior - revised = +2.7%)

=====================

Core PCE Price Index
( = PCE Price Index minus food and energy)
Previous Reading (revised): +0.5%

• Actual: FLAT

• Change from 12 months previous: +2.6%
  (prior - revised = +3.0%)

=====================

The yellow-highlighted percentages represent the month-to-month change in the prices associated with domestic personal consumption.  The PCE Price Index is different from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that it is a very broad measure of the prices associated with domestic products and services, while the CPI measures a more limited fixed basket of goods and services.

The broad nature of the PCE Price Index is key to why it is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pays very close attention to it.

=====================

The "predicted" figures are what economists were expecting, while the "actual" figures are the true or real figure.

=====================

CHART: Change In Monthly Consumer Spending
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

=====================

 Click here to view the full
Commerce Department report (PDF). 

=====================

* =  Chained dollars is a method of adjusting real dollar amounts for inflation over time, so as to allow comparison of figures from different years. The Commerce Department introduced the chained-dollar measure in 1996. Chained dollars generally reflect dollar figures computed with 2012 as the base year.

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Consumer Sentiment: FINAL Results for April 2025

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) - FINAL Results for April 2025 was released today:

Predicted: 50.0

• Actual: 52.2

=========

• Change from Previous Month: -8.42% (-4.8 points)
  
  

• Change from 12 Months Previous: -32.38% (-25.00 points)

=========

• Final ICS Reading for March 2025: 57.0
  
  
• Final ICS Reading for April 2024: 77.2

=========

From Today's Report:

"...Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 8% from March. While the April decline in current conditions was modest, the expectations index plummeted with drop-offs in personal finances as well as business conditions.

Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recession. While this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation.

Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak.

Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.5% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations.

As seen in the chart, inflation expectations evolved with major trade policy announcements this month. After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March.

Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents..."

=========

  

CHART: Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated After
Surging and Softening Modestly Following
April 2025 Tariff Developments
=========

The ICS is derived from the following five survey questions:

1. "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?"
   
   
2. "Now looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?"
   
   
3. "Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?"
   
   
4. "Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely: that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?"
   
   
5. "About the big things people buy for their homes, such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?"
   

=========

• Click here for more on how the ICS is calculated.

=========

The ICS uses a 1966 baseline, i.e. for 1966, the ICS = 100. So any number that is below the 1966 baseline of 100 means that the folks who were polled recently aren't as optimistic about the U.S. economy as those polled back in 1966.

The ICS is similar to the Consumer Confidence Index in that they both measure consumer attitudes and offer valuable insight into consumer spending.

=========

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=========

• Click here to view the full University of Michigan report.

=========

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Leading Economic Index for March 2025

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2025:

==============

Index for March 2025: 100.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.69% (-0.7 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -1.86% (-1.9 points)

==============

• LEI for February 2025: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for January 2025: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for December 2024: 101.6
  
  
• LEI for November 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for October 2024: 101.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 101.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 102.1
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 102.9
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements:

1. consumer expectations dropped further,
   
   
2. stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and,
   
   
3. new orders in manufacturing softened.

That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy’s potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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U.S. Retail And Food Services Sales Report for March 2025

The Commerce Department this morning released advance estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for March 2025:

=================

Previous Month (unrevised): +0.2%

• Actual: +1.43% (+10,335,000,000)

=================

The yellow-highlighted percentage above represents the month-to-month , seasonally adjusted change in total sales receipts for retailers that sell durable and non-durable goods, and retailers that provide food and beverage services.

=================

• Est. Retail Sales During March 2025: $734,870,000,000

• Change From A Year Ago: +4.6% (+$32,350,000,000)

=================

CHART: Retail Sales - Monthly
January 2005 Thru March 2025
MARCH 2025 UPDATE
=================

• Click here to view the full Commerce Department report.
  
  

================= 

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