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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, June 22, 2017

Leading Economic Index for May 2017

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May 2017 this morning:

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Index for May: 127.0 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2010 data.)

Predicted: +0.3
Actual: +0.3%

  • Previous Month: +0.2 (revised.)

  • Two Months Previous: +0.4

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The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May 2017
Leading Economic Index (LEI) for May 2017

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From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI continued on its upward trend in May, suggesting the economy is likely to remain on, or perhaps even moderately above, its long-term trend of about 2 percent growth for the remainder of the year,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. 'The improvement was widespread among the majority of the leading indicators except for housing permits, which declined again. And, the average workweek in manufacturing has recently shown no sign of improvement.'..."


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