Leading Economic Index for September 2017

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September 2017 this morning:

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Index for September: 128.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2010 data.)

Predicted: +0.1%

Actual: -0.2%

• Previous Month: +0.4%
  
  
• Two Months Previous: +0.3%

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The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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Leading Economic Index (LEI) - September 2017

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined slightly in September for the first time in the last twelve months, partly a result of the temporary impact of the recent hurricanes,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. 'The source of weakness was concentrated in labor markets and residential construction, while the majority of the LEI components continued to contribute positively. Despite September’s decline, the trend in the US LEI remains consistent with continuing solid growth in the US economy for the second half of the year.'..."

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report.

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.

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