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Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Leading Economic Index for January 2018

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for January 2018 this morning:


Index for December: 108.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

Predicted: +0.6%
Actual: +1.028%

  • Previous Month: +0.6%

  • Two Months Previous: +0.4%


The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™


Leading Economic Index (LEI) - January 2018
Leading Economic Index (LEI) - January 2018


From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI accelerated further in January and continues to point to robust economic growth in the first half of 2018. While the recent stock market volatility will not be reflected in the U.S. LEI until next month, consumers’ and business’ outlook on the economy had been improving for several months and should not be greatly impacted,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. 'The leading indicators reflect an economy with widespread strengths coming from financial conditions, manufacturing, residential construction, and labor markets.'..."


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