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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Leading Economic Index for April 2018

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2018 this morning:

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Index for April: 109.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.367%

  • March 2018 Reading: 109.0 (+0.368%)

  • February 2018 Reading: 108.6 (+0.742%)

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The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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Leading Economic Index for April 2018
Leading Economic Index for April 2018

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From Today's Report:

"...'April’s increase and continued uptrend in the U.S. LEI suggest solid growth should continue in the second half of 2018. However, the LEI’s six-month growth rate has recently moderated somewhat, suggesting growth is unlikely to strongly accelerate,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. 'In April, stock prices and housing permits were the only negative contributors, whereas the labor market components, which made negative contributions in March, improved.'..."

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