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Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Leading Economic Index for June 2018

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2018 this morning:


Index for June: 109.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.457%


  • May 2018 Reading: 109.3 (No Change)

  • April 2018 Reading: 109.3 (+0.367%)


The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™


Leading Economic Index - June 2018 Update
Leading Economic Index - June 2018 Update


From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI increased in June, pointing to continuing solid growth in the U.S. economy,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. 'The widespread growth in leading indicators, with the exception of housing permits which declined once again, does not suggest any considerable growth slowdown in the short-term.'..."

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