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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Friday, August 17, 2018

Leading Economic Index for July 2018

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2018 this morning:

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Index for July: 110.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

Predicted: +0.4%
Actual: +0.636%

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  • June 2018 Reading: 110.0 (+0.548%)

  • May 2018 Reading: 109.4 (+0.091%)

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The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - July 2018 Update
Chart: Leading Economic Index - July 2018 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI increased in July, suggesting the US economy will continue expanding at a solid pace for the remainder of this year,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. 'The strengths among the components of the leading index were very widespread, with unemployment claims, the financial components, and the ISM® New Orders Index making the largest positive contributions.'..."

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