Leading Economic Index for October 2018

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for October 2018 this morning:

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Index for October: 112.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

Predicted: +0.1%

Actual: +0.0892% (+0.1 point)

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• Index for September 2018: 112.0  (+0.629%  | +0.7 point)
  
  
• Index for August 2018: 111.3 (+0.451%  | +0.5 point)

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - October 2018 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI increased slightly in October, and the pace of improvement slowed for the first time since May,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board. 'The index still points to robust economic growth in early 2019, but the rapid pace of growth may already have peaked. While near term economic growth should remain strong, longer term growth is likely to moderate to about 2.5 percent by mid to late 2019.'..."

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• Click here to view the Conference Board report. 

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.

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