Economy: ISM Manufacturing Index for January 2019

Earlier today, the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) released their Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI®) for January 2019:

Predicted: 57.9%
Actual: 56.6% (+2.3 points month-on-month change)

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Previous month: 54.3%

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Every month, the ISM surveys purchasing and supply executives at hundreds of companies across the country who are involved in manufacturing in some form. The resulting index is watched closely by academics, economists and investors because manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The PMI is a reliable barometer of U.S. manufacturing: A PMI above 50% implies that U.S. manufacturing expanded during the month specified, while a reading below 50% implies that the made-in-the-USA sector contracted.

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From Today's Report:

"...Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December, and the overall economy grew for the 117th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®..."

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The following is a sampling of quotes from a diverse pool of U.S. manufacturers:

“Unlike in the last few years, we are experiencing a first quarter slowdown.”
(Paper Products)

“Steady supply and production environment.”
(Computer + Electronic Products)

“Concerns about oil prices are fueling questions of how strong the economy will be the first half of 2019.”
(Chemical Products)

“Overall, business continues to be good; however, margins are being squeezed.”
(Transportation Equipment)

“The federal government shutdown is impacting our ability to get new products launched. All wines need TTB [Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau] approval. We are reforecasting accordingly.”
(Food, Beverage + Tobacco Products)

“We continue to enjoy the benefits of a strong general economy. We are busy and maintain a backlog of sales orders.”
(Machinery)

“Incoming orders have been steady, but we’re starting to see signs of slowing going into February and March.”
(Furniture + Related Products)

“Business conditions are good, and our demand and production are tracking to our forecasted growth levels for the year.”
(Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

“Going to be a very strong spring. Business levels will be just as good [compared to] the same time frame in 2018.”
(Fabricated Metal Products)

“Steel tariffs continue to put upward pressure on prices of downstream materials.”
(Petroleum + Coal Products)

“January is off to a good start versus a lower November and December. We are ahead of both plan and January 2018 performance.”
(Plastics and Rubber Products)