Leading Economic Index for March 2019

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2019 this morning:

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Index for March: 111.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

Predicted: +0.3%

Actual: +0.3587% (+0.4 point)

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• Index for February 2019: 111.5 
  
  
• Index for January 2019: 111.4

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - March 2019 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI picked up in March with labor markets, consumers’ outlook, and financial conditions making the largest contributions,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'Despite the relatively large gain in March, the trend in the US LEI continues to moderate, suggesting that growth in the US economy is likely to decelerate toward its long term potential of about 2 percent by year end.'..."

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• Click here to view the Conference Board report.

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.

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