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Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Leading Economic Index for July 2019

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2019 this morning:


Index for July: 112.2 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

Predicted: +0.2%
Actual: +0.538% (+0.6 point)


  • Index for June 2019: 111.6

  • Index for May 2019: 111.7

  • Index for April 2019: 111.8

  • Index for March 2019: 111.7


The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™


Chart: Leading Economic Index - July 2019 Update
Chart: Leading Economic Index - July 2019 Update


From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI increased in July, following back-to-back modest declines. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index were the major drivers of the improvement,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'However, the manufacturing sector continues exhibiting signs of weakness and the yield spread was negative for a second consecutive month. While the LEI suggests the US economy will continue to expand in the second half of 2019, it is likely to do so at a moderate pace.'..."


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