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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Leading Economic Index for August 2019

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2019 this morning:

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Index for August: 112.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: Unchanged
  • Actual: Unchanged

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  • LEI for July 2019: 112.1
     
  • LEI for June 2019: 111.7

  • LEI for May 2019: 111.7

  • LEI for April 2019: 111.8

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - August 2019 Update
Chart: Leading Economic Index - August 2019 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for theU.S. was unchanged in August, remaining at 112.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in July, and no change in June.

'The US LEI remained unchanged in August, following a large increase in July. Housing permits and the Leading Credit Index offset the weakness in the index from the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'The recent trends in the LEI are consistent with a slow but still expanding economy, which has been primarily driven by strong consumer spending and robust job growth.'..."

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