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Economic Data (USA)

Thursday, January 27, 2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q4, 2021

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2021:


Predicted: +6.0%

  • Actual: +6.9%

  • Real Consumer Spending: +3.3%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


From Today's Report:

"...COVID-19 Impact On The Fourth-Quarter 2021 GDP Estimate

The increase in fourth quarter GDP reflected the continued economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the fourth quarter, COVID-19 cases resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off..."

"...Personal saving was $1.34 trillion in the fourth quarter, compared with $1.72 trillion in the third quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 7.4% in the fourth quarter, compared with 9.5% in the third quarter..."


The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

CHART: GDP - Q4 2021 - First Estimate

 CHART: GDP - Q4 2021 - First Estimate


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