Leading Economic Index for November 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for November 2024:
==============

Index for November 2024: 99.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: +0.3% (+0.3 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.14% (-3.6 points)

==============

• LEI for October 2024: 99.4
  
  
• LEI for September 2024: 99.8
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 100.2
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signal
NOVEMBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI rose in November for the first time since February 2022,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November.

It’s worth noting that gains in building permits were not widespread geographically or by building type; they were concentrated mainly to the Northeast and Midwest, and on buildings with 5+ units rather than single-family dwellings.

Overall, the rise in LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the US. The Conference Board currently forecasts US GDP to expand by 2.7% in 2024, but growth to slow to 2.0% in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Leading Economic Index for October 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for October 2024:

==============

Index for October 2024: 99.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.4% (-0.4 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.14% (-4.3 points)

==============

• LEI for September 2024: 99.9
  
  
• LEI for August 2024: 100.2
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
OCTOBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The largest negative contributor to the LEI’s decline came from manufacturer new orders, which remained weak in 11 out of 14 industries,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'In October, manufacturing hours worked fell by the most since December 2023, while unemployment insurance claims rose and building permits declined, partly reflecting the impact of hurricanes in the Southeast United States.

Additionally, the negative yield spread continued to weigh on the LEI. Apart from possible temporary impacts of hurricanes, the US LEI continued to suggest challenges to economic activity ahead.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Leading Economic Index for September 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September 2024:

==============

Index for September 2024: 99.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.5% (-0.5 point Month-on-Month)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.78% (-5.0 points)

==============

• LEI for August 2024: 100.2
  
  
• LEI for July 2024: 100.5
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
SEPTEMBER 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

'Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above.

Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Leading Economic Index for August 2024

Recently, the Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2024:

==============

Index for August 2024: 100.2 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.02% (-5.3 points)

==============

• LEI for July 2024: 100.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
AUGUST 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'In August, the US LEI remained on a downward trajectory and posted its sixth consecutive monthly decline,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The erosion continued to be driven by new orders, which recorded its lowest value since May 2023. A negative interest rate spread, persistently gloomy consumer expectations of future business conditions, and lower stock prices after the early-August financial market tumult also weighed on the Index.

Overall, the LEI continued to signal headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to lose momentum in the second half of this year as higher prices, elevated interest rates, and mounting debt erode domestic demand. However, in the Fed’s September 2024 Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers suggested 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are likely by the end of this year, which should lower borrowing costs and support stronger economic activity in 2025.'..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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Leading Economic Index for July 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for July 2024: 100.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.19% (-5.5 points)

==============

• LEI for June 2024: 101.0
  
  
• LEI for May 2024: 101.2
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JULY 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread. These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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Leading Economic Index for June 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for June 2024: 101.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.2%

• Actual: -0.2% (-0.2 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -4.71% (-5.0 points)

==============

• LEI for May 2024: 101.3
  
  
• LEI for April 2024: 101.7
   
• LEI for March 2024: 102.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.6
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.6
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.1
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
JUNE 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI continued to trend down in June, but the contraction was smaller than in the past three months,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The decline continued to be fueled by gloomy consumer expectations, weak new orders, negative interest rate spread, and an increased number of initial claims for unemployment.

However, due to the smaller month-on-month rate of decline, the LEI’s long-term growth has become less negative, pointing to a slow recovery. Taken together, June’s data suggest that economic activity is likely to continue to lose momentum in the months ahead. We currently forecast that cooling consumer spending will push US GDP growth down to around 1 percent (annualized) in Q3 of this year.'

NOTE: Starting with the September 2023 release, Leading Credit Index™ calculations (from 2020 to current) use the SOFR Overnight Financing Rate in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year instead of LIBOR rate. LIBOR remains in the USD Swap spread semiannual 2 year from 1990 to 2020..."

==============
 

• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

==============

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U.S. Factory Shipments During May 2024

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for May 2024:

========

Predicted: FLAT

• Actual: -0.717% (-4,224,000,000)

========

• May 2024 New Shipments: $584,805,000,000.
  
  
• April 2024 New Shipments: $589,029,000,000.
  

========

 Year-to-Date Change: +$57,178,000,000 (+2.02%)

 ========

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in new shipments for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

=============

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
May 2022 Update

=============

• Click here to view the full Census Bureau report.

=============

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Leading Economic Index for April 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2024 this morning:

==============

Index for April 2024: 101.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.4%

• Actual: -0.59% (-0.6 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.21% (-5.6 points)

==============

• LEI for March 2024: 102.4
  
  
• LEI for February 2024: 102.7
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.5
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.0
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.3
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
April 2024 UPDATE

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From Today's Report:

"...'Another decline in the U.S. LEI confirms that softer economic conditions lay ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Deterioration in consumers’ outlook on business conditions, weaker new orders, a negative yield spread, and a drop in new building permits fueled April’s decline. In addition, stock prices contributed negatively for the first time since October of last year.

While the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead. Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household debt, and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue weighing on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we project that real GDP growth will slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.'

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in April 2024 to 112.3 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.2% in March. As a result, the CEI was up 0.9% over the six-month period ending April 2024, slightly ahead of its 0.8% increase over the previous six months.

The CEI’s component indicators -- payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production -- are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components of the index improved last month. Personal income less transfer payments made the largest positive contribution to the Index..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

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Leading Economic Index for March 2024

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2024 this morning:

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Index for March 2024: 102.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: -0.1%

• Actual: -0.29% (-0.3 point M/M)
  
  
• Change from 12 Months Ago: -5.45% (-5.9 points)

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• LEI for February 2024: 102.7
   
• LEI for January 2024: 102.5
  
  
• LEI for December 2023: 103.0
  
  
• LEI for November 2023: 103.2
  
  
• LEI for October 2023: 103.8
  
  
• LEI for September 2023: 104.7
  
  
• LEI for August 2023: 105.5
  
  
• LEI for July 2023: 105.9
  
  
• LEI for June 2023: 106.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2023: 106.7
  
  
• LEI for April 2023: 107.4
  
  
• LEI for March 2023: 108.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2023: 109.6
  
  
• LEI for January 2023: 110.2
  
  
• LEI for December 2022: 110.7
  
  
• LEI for November 2022: 111.5
  
  
• LEI for October 2022: 112.5
  
  
• LEI for September 2022: 113.5
  
  
• LEI for August 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for July 2022: 116.4
  
  
• LEI for June 2022: 117.1
  
  
• LEI for May 2022: 117.9
  
  
• LEI for April 2022: 118.7
  
  
• LEI for March 2022: 119.3
  
  
• LEI for February 2022: 119.4
  
  
• LEI for January 2022: 118.5
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
March 2024 UPDATE

==============

 

From Today's Report:

"...'February’s uptick in the U.S. LEI proved to be ephemeral as the Index posted a decline in March,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline.

The LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, but the pace of contraction has slowed. Overall, the Index points to a fragile -- even if not recessionary -- outlook for the U.S. economy. Indeed, rising consumer debt, elevated interest rates, and persistent inflation pressures continue to pose risks to economic activity in 2024.

The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth to cool after the rapid expansion in the second half of 2023. As consumer spending slows, US GDP growth is expected to moderate over Q2 and Q3 of this year.'..."

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• Click Here to view the Conference Board report.
  

============== 

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