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Economy

Economic Data (USA)

Saturday, September 23, 2023

Leading Economic Index for August 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for August 2023: 105.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.7%

  • Actual: -0.38% (-0.4 point)

  • Change from 12 Months Ago: -9.45% (-11.0 points)

==============
  • LEI for July 2023: 105.8

  • LEI for June 2023: 106.1

  • LEI for May 2023: 106.7

  • LEI for April 2023: 107.4

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.3

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.6

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - August 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
August 2023 UPDATE

==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4% in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3% in July. The LEI is down 3.8% over the six-month period between February and August 2023 -- little changed from its 3.9% contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023.)

'With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2023, and then fall to 0.8% in 2024.'..
."
==============
 

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Thursday, July 20, 2023

Leading Economic Index for June 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for June 2023: 106.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.7%
  • Actual: -0.748% (-0.8 point)

  • Change from 12 Months Ago: -9.39% (-11.0 points)

==============

  • LEI for May 2023: 106.9

  • LEI for April 2023: 107.5

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.3

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.6

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - June 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
June 2023 UPDATE

==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023 -- a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8% contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022).

'The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months -- the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the run-up to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead.

We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.'..
."
==============
 

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Friday, June 23, 2023

Leading Economic Index for May 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for May 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for May 2023: 106.7 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.7%
  • Actual: -0.744% (-0.8 point)

==============

  • LEI for April 2023: 107.5

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.2

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.5

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============
 
CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - May 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
May 2023 UPDATE
 

==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM® New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity.

While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.'..
."

==============
 

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Friday, May 19, 2023

Leading Economic Index for April 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for April 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for April 2023: 107.5 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.5%
  • Actual: -0.647% (-0.7 point)

==============

  • LEI for March 2023: 108.2

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.5

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============
 
CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals  - April 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
April 2023 UPDATE
 
==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'Weaknesses among underlying components were widespread, but less so than in March’s reading, which resulted in a smaller decline.

Only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for both capital and consumer goods improved in April.

Importantly, the LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn this year. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.'..."

==============
 

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Thursday, April 27, 2023

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q1, 2023

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2023:

============

Predicted: 1.5%

  • Actual: +1.1%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.

============
 
 
============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============

CHART: Personal Income + Outlays + Saving - Q1 2023 UPDATE
CHART: Personal Income
+ Outlays + Saving - Q1 2023 UPDATE

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Thursday, April 20, 2023

Leading Economic Index for March 2023

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2023 this morning:

==============

Index for March 2023: 108.4 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.5%
  • Actual: -1.185% (-1.3 points)

==============

  • LEI for February 2023: 109.7

  • LEI for January 2023: 110.2

  • LEI for December 2022: 110.7

  • LEI for November 2022: 111.5

  • LEI for October 2022: 112.5

  • LEI for September 2022: 113.5

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============
 
CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - March 2023 UPDATE

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
 March 2023 UPDATE
 
==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The U.S. LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,' said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. 'The weaknesses among the index’s components were widespread in March and have been so over the past six months, which pushed the growth rate of the LEI deeper into negative territory.

Only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials contributed positively over the last six months.

The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023.'..
."

==============
 

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Thursday, October 27, 2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q3, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2022:

============

Predicted: +2.5%

  • Actual: +2.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


============

The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

============
 
CHART: GDP - Q3 2022 - First Estimate
CHART: GDP - Q3 2022 - First Estimate

============

============


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Friday, October 21, 2022

Leading Economic Index for September 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September 2022 this morning:

==============

Index for September 2022: 115.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%
  • Actual: -0.43% (-0.5 point)

==============

  • LEI for August 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.4

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============
 
 
CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals September 2022 UPDATE

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
September 2022 UPDATE
 
==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before year end,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. 'The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread.

Amid high inflation, slowing labor markets, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.5 percent year-over-year in 2022, before slowing further in the first half of next year.'
..."

==============
 

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Thursday, September 22, 2022

Leading Economic Index for August 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for August 2022 this morning:

==============

Index for August 2022: 116.2 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.3%
  • Actual: -0.258% (-0.3 point)

==============

  • LEI for July 2022: 116.5

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============


CHART: Leading Economic Index 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals August 2022 UPDATE
CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
August 2022 UPDATE


==============


CHART: Year-on-Year Change in the Leading Economic Index + Real GDP August 2022 UPDATE
CHART: Year-on-Year Change
in the Leading Economic Index
+ Real GDP
August 2022 UPDATE


==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined for a sixth consecutive month potentially signaling a recession,' Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. 'Among the index’s components, only initial unemployment claims and the yield spread contributed positively over the last six months—and the contribution of the yield spread has narrowed recently.'

'Furthermore, labor market strength is expected to continue moderating in the months ahead. Indeed, the average workweek in manufacturing contracted in four of the last six months -- a notable sign, as firms reduce hours before reducing their workforce. Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the US economy and is likely to contract. A major driver of this slowdown has been the Federal Reserve’s rapid tightening of monetary policy to counter inflationary pressures. The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters.'.
.."

==============
 

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Thursday, August 18, 2022

Leading Economic Index for July 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for July 2022 this morning:

==============

Index for July 2022: 116.6 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.5%
  • Actual: -0.427% (-0.5 point)

==============

  • LEI for June 2022: 117.1

  • LEI for May 2022: 117.9

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============

CHART: Leading Economic Index -- 6-Month Growth Rate with Warning + Recession Signals - July 2022 UPDATE

CHART: Leading Economic Index
6-Month Growth Rate
with Warning + Recession Signals
July 2022 UPDATE


==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined for a fifth consecutive month in July, suggesting recession risks are rising in the near term,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, The Conference Board. 'Consumer pessimism and equity market volatility as well as slowing labor markets, housing construction, and manufacturing new orders suggest that economic weakness will intensify and spread more broadly throughout the US economy. The Conference Board projects the US economy will not expand in the third quarter and could tip into a short but mild recession by the end of the year or early 2023.'..."

==============
 

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Friday, July 22, 2022

Leading Economic Index for June 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June 2022 this morning:

==============

Index for June 2022: 117.1 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

==============

Predicted: -0.5%
  • Actual: -0.763% (-0.9 point)

==============

  • LEI for May 2022: 118.0

  • LEI for April 2022: 118.7

  • LEI for March 2022: 119.3

  • LEI for February 2022: 119.4

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.5

  • LEI for December 2021: 119.3

==============

The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

==============


CHART: Year-on-Year Change in the Leading Economic Index + Real GDP - June 2022 UPDATE

CHART: Year-on-Year Change in the Leading Economic Index
+ Real GDP
June 2022 UPDATE


  ==============
 
From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined for a fourth consecutive month suggesting economic growth is likely to slow further in the near-term as recession risks grow,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'Consumer pessimism about future business conditions, moderating labor market conditions, falling stock prices and weaker manufacturing new orders drove the LEI’s decline in June. The coincident economic index which rose in June suggests the economy grew through the second quarter. However, the forward-looking LEI points to a US economic downturn ahead.'

'Amid high
inflation and rapidly tightening monetary policy, The Conference Board expects economic growth will continue to cool throughout 2022. A US recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely. Accordingly, we’ve downgraded our forecast of 2022 annual Real GDP growth to 1.7% year-over-year (from 2.3 percent), while 2023 growth was downgraded to 0.5% YOY (from 1.8%).'..."

==============
 

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Thursday, July 14, 2022

El-Erian: ‘It’S Uncomfortably Possible’ That The Fed Will Push The Economy Into A Recession

VIDEO CLIP: Mohamed El-Erian "It’s Uncomfortably Possible’ That The Fed Will Push The Economy Into A Recession"

From the good folks at Yahoo Finance...





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Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Final Estimate for Q1, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its final estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2022:

============

Predicted: +1.5%

  • Actual: -1.6%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


============

From Today's Report:

"...Personal Income: Current-dollar personal income increased $247.2 billion (revised) in the first quarter to a level of $21.26 trillion. In the fourth quarter, personal income increased $186.2 billion. The increase primarily reflected an increase in compensation that was partly offset by a decrease in government social benefits. In the first quarter, government assistance payments in the form of social benefits to households decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or continued to taper off.


Disposable personal income decreased $58.8 billion (revised), or 1.3 percent, in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $72.4 billion, or 1.6%, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 7.8% (revised), compared with a decrease of 4.5%. Personal saving was $1.02 trillion in the first quarter (revised), compared with $1.45 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.6% (revised) in the first quarter, compared with 7.9% in the fourth quarter..."

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - Final Estimate

CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - Final Estimate
 
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Tuesday, May 03, 2022

U.S. Factory Orders During March 2022

The U.S. Census Bureau this morning released their report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders -- also known as Factory Orders -- for March 2022:

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Predicted: +1.5%

  • Actual: +2.167% (+$11,821,000,000)

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  • March 2022 New Orders: $557,321,000,000.

  • February 2022 New Orders: $545,500,000,000.

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change in orders for both durable and nondurable goods made by U.S. manufacturers. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

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CHART: U.S. Factory Orders - March 2022 Update

CHART: U.S. Factory Orders
March 2022 Update


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Thursday, April 28, 2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): First Estimate for Q1, 2022

Earlier this morning, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2022:

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Predicted: +1.2%

  • Actual: -1.4%

The yellow-highlighted percentage represents the first estimate of the quarter-to-quarter change for Real Gross Domestic Product for the entire United States.


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From Today's Report:

"...Disposable personal income increased $216.6 billion, or 4.8 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $20.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in the fourth quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 2.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 5.6 percent.

Personal saving was $1.21 trillion in the first quarter, compared with $1.39 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 6.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter.

In the first quarter, an increase in COVID-19 cases related to the Omicron variant resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the first quarter because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

Personal saving was $1.21 trillion in the first quarter, compared with $1.39 trillion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 6.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter..."

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The GDP is a very broad measure of economic activity for the entire United States, covering all sectors of the economy. The Commerce Department defines real GDP as, "the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States."

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CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - First Estimate

CHART: GDP - Q1 2022 - First Estimate

 
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Thursday, April 21, 2022

Leading Economic Index for March 2022

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for March 2022 this morning:

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Index for March 2022: 119.8 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +0.3%
  • Actual: +0.251% (+0.3 point)

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  • LEI for February 2022: 119.5

  • LEI for January 2022: 118.8

  • LEI for December 2021: 119.3

  • LEI for November 2021: 118.9

  • LEI for October 2021: 118.1

  • LEI for September 2021: 117.6 

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

  1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index

  2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance

  3. Building permits for new private housing

  4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds

  5. ISM® Index of New Orders

  6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials

  7. Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

  8. Average weekly manufacturing hours

  9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions

  10. Leading Credit Index™

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CHART: Leading Economic Index - March 2022 Update

CHART: Leading Economic Index
March 2022 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased by 0.3% in March to 119.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in February. The LEI increased by 1.9% in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.


'The US LEI rose again in March despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'This broad-based improvement signals economic growth is likely to continue through 2022 despite volatile stock prices and weakening business and consumer expectations. The Conference Board projects 3.0% year-over-year US GDP growth in 2022, which is slower than the 5.6% pace of 2021, but still well above [pre-
COVID-19] trend. This rate also reflects a 0.5 [percentage point] downgrade incorporated in our base case to include the effects of the war in Ukraine compared to before the war (3.5%.)

However, downside risks to the growth outlook remain, associated with intensification of supply chain disruptions and
inflation linked to lingering pandemic shutdowns and the war, as well as with tightening monetary policy and persistent labor shortages.'..."

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