Leading Economic Index for September 2019

The Conference Board® released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for September 2019 this morning:

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Index for September: 111.9 (The baseline 100 score is associated with 2016 data.)

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Predicted: +0.2%

• Actual: -0.089% (-0.1 point)

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• LEI for August 2019: 112.0
   
• LEI for July 2019: 112.2
  
  
• LEI for June 2019: 111.8
  
  
• LEI for May 2019: 111.8
  

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The yellow-highlighted percentage is the month-to-month change for the index.  The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

The LEI is a composite of 10 of the nation's economic data releases that's put together by The Conference Board. Statistically, the components listed below have shown a significant increase or decrease before national economic upturns or downturns:

1. The Standard + Poor's 500 Index
   
   
2. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance
   
   
3. Building permits for new private housing
   
   
4. The interest rate spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Note and Federal Funds
   
   
5. ISM® Index of New Orders
   
   
6. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods or materials
   
   
7. Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
   
   
8. Average weekly manufacturing hours
   
   
9. Average consumer expectations for business conditions
   
   
10. Leading Credit Index™
    

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Chart: Leading Economic Index - September 2019 Update

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From Today's Report:

"...'The US LEI declined in September because of weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread which were only partially offset by rising stock prices and a positive contribution from the Leading Credit Index,' said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. 'The LEI reflects uncertainty in the outlook and falling business expectations, brought on by the downturn in the industrial sector and trade disputes. Looking ahead, the LEI is consistent with an economy that is still growing, albeit more slowly, through the end of the year and into 2020.'..."

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• Click here to view the Conference Board report.

• Click here to view the full Conference Board report with Technical Notes.

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