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Economic Data (USA)

Friday, February 07, 2020

Employment Situation Report for January 2020

The Employment Situation Report for January 2020 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +160,000
Actual: +225,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 3.6%
Previous Month: 3.5%
12 Months Previous: 4.0%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 6.9%
Previous Month: 6.7%
12 Months Previous: 8.0%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.247% (+$0.07)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +3.0%
Actual: +3.118% (+$0.86)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.247% (+$2.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +2.52% (+$23.98)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 63.4%
Previous Month: 63.2%
12 Months Previous: 63.2%

Average Workweek
Predicted: 34.3 hours
Actual: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

From today's report:

"...In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents to $28.44 [
+0.247%]. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by [+3.118%]. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees were $23.87 in January, little changed over the month (+3 cents [+0.126%])...

...The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 5,000 from +256,000 to +261,000, and the change for December was revised up by 2,000 from +145,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined were 7,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to the November and December revisions.)
After revisions, job gains have averaged 211,000 over the last 3 months..." [Establishment Survey Data]

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."



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