New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 12, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 12, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 220,000

• Actual: 215,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (revised): 224,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 220,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of April 5, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on April 5, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 223,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

 -->  Previous Week (unrevised): 219,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 223,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for March 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for March 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During March 2025: 275,240

• Previous Month: 172,017

 > Change from previous month: +60.00% (+103,223 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 90,309
  

> Change from one-year previous: +204.76% (+184,931 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...'Job cut announcements were dominated last month by Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] plans to eliminate positions in the federal government. It would have otherwise been a fairly quiet month for layoffs,' Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

 -------------

Government & DOGE

The Government led all sectors in job cuts in March with 216,215, all of which occurred in the federal government. So far this year, the Government has cut 279,445, an increase of 672% from the 36,195 cuts announced in the first quarter of 2024.

In March of 2024, the previous administration announced plans to cut 10,000 from the Veterans Affairs and 24,000 from the United States Army. Prior to March 2024, the highest monthly total for the sector occurred in September 2011, when Government entities cut 54,182, primarily on an announcement to cut 50,000 positions in the U.S. Army. This sector cut a total of 15,584 cuts between 2021 and 2023 after cutting 78,323 jobs in all of 2020. Unlike March 2025, these cuts were a mixture of federal, state, and local government positions.

Why are Companies Cutting?

'DOGE Impact' leads job cut reasons this year with 280,253, 216,670 in March. Market/Economic Conditions followed with 47,851 job cuts attributed to this reason in the first quarter.

Another 45,761 job cuts were attributed to store, unit, or department Closing. Restructuring accounted for 39,396, while Bankruptcy was the reason for 35,501. Just 63 layoffs have been attributed specifically to tariffs so far this year, all in the Retail sector...."

 ================

 

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Challenger Report - Announced Jobs Cuts
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

================

Job Cuts by Reason - USA
MARCH 2025 UPDATE

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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Employment Situation Report for March 2025

The Employment Situation Report for March 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +228,000

Previous Month (revised): 117,000
One Year Previous: 246,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.2%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.9%
Previous Month: 8.0%
12 Months Previous: 7.3%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.25% (+$0.09)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +3.84% (+$1.33)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.25% (+$3.08)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.23% (+$38.55)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.2 hours
Previous Month (revised): 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.4 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
MARCH 2005 THRU MARCH 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for February 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,600,000

• Actual:   7,568,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,762,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,445,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -10.38% (-877,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,396,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -4.73% (-268,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,195,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -7.87% (-273,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,790,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +6.48% (+109,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,261,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.93% (-215,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
FEBRUARY 2010 thru FEBRUARY 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 22, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 22, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 224,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 225,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 224,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 15, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 15, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 223,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 221,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 227,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 8, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 8, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 225,000

• Actual: 220,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 222,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 226,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for January 2025

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for January 2025 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,600,000

• Actual:   7,740,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 7,508,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,468,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -8.6% (-728,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,393,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.21% (-179,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,266,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.59% (-87,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,635,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.37% (-57,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,252,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -3.26% (-177,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening, Seasonally Adjusted
JANUARY 2010 thru JANUARY 2025

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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Employment Situation Report for February 2025

The Employment Situation Report for February 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +151,000

Previous Month (revised): 125,000
One Year Previous: 222,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.1%
Previous Month: 4.0%
12 Months Previous: 3.9%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 8.0%
Previous Month: 7.5%
12 Months Previous: 7.3%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.28% (+$0.10)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +4.02% (+$1.39)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.28% (+$3.41)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.42% (+$40.49)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.4%
Previous Month: 62.6%
12 Months Previous: 62.6%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.1 hours
Previous Month: 34.1 hours
One Year Previous: 34.3 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
FEBRUARY 2005 THRU FEBRUARY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

=================== 

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Challenger Job Cuts Report for February 2025

The global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. released its job cuts report, for February 2025:

-------------------------------

Job Cuts Announced During February 2025: 172,017

• Previous Month: 49,795
  

 > Change from previous month: +245.45% (+122,222 cuts)

--------------

• One-Year Previous: 84,638
  

> Change from one-year previous: +103.24% (+87,379 cuts)

===================

From Today's Report:

"...So far this year, employers have announced 221,812 job cuts, the highest year-to-date (YTD) total since 2009 when 428,099 job cuts were planned. It is up 33% from the 166,945 cuts announced during the same period in 2024.

'Private companies announced plans to shed thousands of jobs last month, particularly in Retail and Technology. With the impact of the Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] actions, as well as canceled Government contracts, fear of trade wars, and bankruptcies, job cuts soared in February,' said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas..."

If corporate layoffs are high, consumer spending may decline, since there would be fewer people with steady jobs.

When corporate layoffs are low, this can mean that the job market is relatively tight, which can be a harbinger of wage inflation.

================

Challenger Report - Announced Jobs Cuts
February 2025 UPDATE

================

Job Cuts by Reason - USA
February 2025 UPDATE

================

 

Job Cuts: Month-by-Month Totals
February 2025 UPDATE

================

• Click here to read the full Challenger, Gray and Christmas report

    ================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of March 1, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on March 1, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 221,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (unrevised): 242,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 224,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 22, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 22, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 230,000

• Actual: 242,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 220,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 224,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

==================== 

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2025

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January 2025:

==================

• Actual (CFNAI): -0.03

==================

• Previous Month (revised): N/A

• 3-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): +0.03

==================

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data:

• Production and income;
• Employment, unemployment, and hours;
• Personal consumption and housing; and
• Sales, orders, and inventories.

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the yellow-highlighted figure is what was reported.

==================

 

CHART: CFNAI-MA3 with Business Cycles
January 2025 Update

===================

Understanding The CFNAI:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below -0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below -0.35.

An increasing likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion. Similarly, a substantial likelihood of a period of sustained increasing inflation has historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion.

==================

• Click here to view the full Chicago Fed report

• Click here for The List of 85 Existing Monthly Indicators
  

==================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 15, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 15, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 219,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 214,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 215,250

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 8, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 8, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 215,000

• Actual: 213,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 220,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,000

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Employment Situation Report for January 2025

The Employment Situation Report for January 2025 was released by The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning:

Nonfarm Payrolls (month-to-month change)
Actual: +143,000

Previous Month (revised): 307,000
One Year Previous: 119,000

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Headline)
Actual: 4.0%
Previous Month: 4.1%
12 Months Previous: 3.7%

U-6 Unemployment Rate*
Actual: 7.5%
Previous Month: 7.5%
12 Months Previous: 7.2%

Average Hourly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Predicted: +0.3%
Actual: +0.477% (+$0.17)

Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Predicted: +4.0%
Actual: +4.06% (+$1.40)

Average Weekly Earnings (month-to-month change)
Actual: +0.183% (+$2.23)

Average Weekly Earnings (year-on-year change)
Actual: +3.76% (+$44.30)

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.6%
Previous Month: 62.5%
12 Months Previous: 62.5%

Average Weekly Hours: 34.1 hours
Previous Month: 34.2 hours
One Year Previous: 34.2 hours

Economist, academics, central bankers and investors pay very close attention to the monthly Employment Situation report as it offers penetrating insight as to the current and near-future state of the overall U.S. economy. If a) Americans are earning more money and b) the economy is creating new jobs, this typically translates to more money being pumped into the economy (and vice versa.)

The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

===================

CHART: Civilian Unemployment Rate
JANUARY 2005 THRU JANUARY 2025

   ===================

 * =  The U-6 Unemployment Rate is defined as:

"Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force."

===================

• Click here to view the full Department of Labor report.

===================

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New Unemployment Insurance Claims for The Week of February 1, 2025

Jobless Claims

Earlier today, the Labor Department released its weekly report on New Jobless Insurance Claims for the week that ended on February 1, 2025:

====================

Predicted: 218,000

• Actual: 219,000

====================

The yellow-highlighted figure represents the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the entire United States. The "predicted" figure is what economists were expecting, while the "actual" is the true or real figure.

• Previous Week (revised): 208,000

• 4-Week Moving Average: 216,750

====================

• Click here to view the full Labor Department report

====================

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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December 2024

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS*) for December 2024 was released by the Labor Department this morning:
=============

Job Openings

Predicted: 7,500,000

• Actual:   7,600,000

-------------------------

• Previous Month (revised): 8,156,000
  
  
• One Year Previous: 8,889,000
  
  
• Change from one year previous: -14.5% (-1,289,000)
  

=============

HIRES: 5,462,000

HIRES vs. 12 Months Previous: -5.62% (-325,000)

-----------

QUITS: 3,197,000

QUITS vs. 12 Months Previous: -7.04% (-242,000)

-----------

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES: 1,771,000 

LAYOFFS + DISCHARGES vs. 12 Months Previous: +10.21% (+164,000)

-----------

TOTAL SEPARATIONS ^§: 5,269,000

TOTAL SEPARATIONS vs. 12 Months Previous: -2.77% (-150,000)

=============

 

§ = Here's How The Labor Department Defines Total Separations:

"Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm."

=============

CHART: Number of Jobless People
per Job Opening
December 2009 thru December 2024

=============
=============

• * = The JOLTS data series began back in December of 2000. 
  
  
• Click here to view the full Labor Department JOLTS report.
  
  

============= 

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